iPad: the media are navel gazing, size-comparing, puck-watching morons

  • Posted: 29 January 2010 09:57 PM #31

    One of the best articles I have seen so far (courtesy of Sanity Board):

    http://speirs.org/blog/2010/1/29/future-shock.html

         
  • Posted: 29 January 2010 10:41 PM #32

    Derrick - 30 January 2010 01:57 AM

    One of the best articles I have seen so far (courtesy of Sanity Board):

    http://speirs.org/blog/2010/1/29/future-shock.html

    Excellent.  Two thumbs up.  Thanks for posting this.

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  • Posted: 29 January 2010 10:42 PM #33

    Wall Street analysts sound quite positive about the IPad to me here

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2010 01:48 AM #34

    iPhone 3.2 may have video call, web download hooks
    updated 11:35 pm EST, Fri January 29, 2010

    New firmware may hide new iPhone features

    A late discovery tonight has showed that iPhone 3.2 may hold the basic structure for features that could ultimately reach future iPhones, including video calling. Claimed “extremely trusted” sources for Engadget say the firmware holds but doesn’t expose code to accept a video call as well as to flip the orientation of the video feed, presumably for it to make sense in a conversation.

    It also has the option of running the video in a small portion of the screen and could potentially multitask, though whether this is evidence of preparation for true multitasking isn’t certain. Apple has regularly given its own apps permission to run in the background, but they have so far never sat on top of other software.

    A well known iPhone firmware cracker, chpwn, has also clarified some of the features of the shared file area and other aspects of the OS. He notes that the firmware should allow downloading files, such as from Safari, and sharing them with other apps. The move would address a common complaint of would-be converts from Symbian and Windows Mobile, both of which often allow downloading non-image files.

    Other key revelations bring word that the support for hardware keyboards and a landscape-oriented home screen should carry over to the iPhone and likely iPod touch, not just the iPad. It may also be the case that the customizable home screen background image will reach other handhelds.

    Features like SMS messaging and phone support are also present in the iPad in rough form, though it’s not known for certain if the iPad’s 3G chipset can also process voice calls or is limited to data. Most data-only modems can still send SMS and MMS.

    The information found so far hints that the iPad and the 3.2 firmware are only interim steps for Apple towards a more comprehensive update in 4.0, which has a high probability of shipping this year. In 2008 and 2009, Apple held special events in March to preview upcoming major revisions of the iPhone OS and often put out the final release at or shortly after WWDC in late spring or early summer.

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2010 06:57 AM #35

    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 04:37 PM

    To me, the purpose of your OP was to encourage enthusiasm for the iPad in the context that the street doesn’t understand the iPad and is wrong to be selling AAPL. I thought the point of your OP was to create enthusiasm for buying or holding AAPL. Please forgive me for not recognizing that your OP was directed toward the fanboy segment.

    Oh, lest I forget: my point is simple: AAPL was sold off because as cool as the iPad is, it didn’t meet the street’s expectations.

    Speaking as a fanboy I do not know why Apple was sold off. SJ could have turned water into wine on Wednesday and it still would have sold off.
    Back to the topic: Tommo and Tan are correct. Apple will sell 10 million + and the only reason they wouldn’t is because they cannot manufacture them fast enough. We are going to see a string of press releases of deals with content creators over the next two months and beginning shortly. Apple already have deals in their pocket but unannounced. Bob Iger CEO of Disney was not at the Yerba Buena center because the lineup to ‘‘Avatar’’ was too long. ABC television will be aboard before the launch as well as Disney movies. NYTimes will be aboard. As we cannot even order these iPads yet I expect before the launch Apple will announce they have ONLINE ORDERS FOR OVER 1 MILLION.  Just my opinion, you understand, as a fanboy

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2010 07:42 AM #36

    Eric Landstrom - 29 January 2010 07:19 PM

    The fact is that a group of people like to short things because while long positions take forever to pile high, a few hours of fear can wipe out months of slow gains. Make of that as you will.

    Best argument I have heard for making shorting illegal.  If you want to gamble, go to Vegas.  The stock market should be reserved for true investors only.  If you don’t own the stock, you should not be allowed to sell it.  You should not be allowed to borrow it.

    End of rant.

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2010 09:38 AM #37

    It’s not the analysts that are bagging the iPad?most of them have come out positively and with big upgrades?it’s the tech pundits who are so blinkered and scared that they have to come up with the most tenuous of reasons to write a load of tripe about a device they have never used.

    As for the selling, what appears to be happening is that given this long rally, people have been getting itchy to sell. If you look closely you will see a pattern: as soon as a company has earnings, any strength is sold into. It happened with Intel. It happened with Apple. It happened with Microsoft. I’ve no doubt it has happened to others.

    The iPad launch simply gave people an opportunity to sell AAPL twice. Personally, I was fooled into thinking that the spike up through $210 would wrong-foot the shorts and push AAPL to a new high as many likely loaded up short around $208, or in the low $200s. I underestimated the sheer weight of sales waiting in the wings.

    It would be good if Apple can announce 1M iPads pre-ordered on Monday as I think that would convince many shorts to try elsewhere. While it won’t repair all the damage, it would probably start a process of recovery.

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  • Posted: 30 January 2010 09:42 AM #38

    wheeles - 30 January 2010 01:38 PM

    It would be good if Apple can announce 1M iPads pre-ordered on Monday as I think that would convince many shorts to try elsewhere. While it won’t repair all the damage, it would probably start a process of recovery.

    Great but unlikely by Monday because nobody order online yet

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2010 09:57 AM #39

    SNIPUS - 30 January 2010 01:42 PM
    wheeles - 30 January 2010 01:38 PM

    It would be good if Apple can announce 1M iPads pre-ordered on Monday as I think that would convince many shorts to try elsewhere. While it won’t repair all the damage, it would probably start a process of recovery.

    Great but unlikely by Monday because nobody order online yet

    I just noticed that. Oh well, better steel myself for more selling. *sigh*

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    Posted: 30 January 2010 10:38 AM #40

    STORY HERE

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  • Posted: 30 January 2010 11:15 AM #41

    SNIPUS - 30 January 2010 01:42 PM
    wheeles - 30 January 2010 01:38 PM

    It would be good if Apple can announce 1M iPads pre-ordered on Monday as I think that would convince many shorts to try elsewhere. While it won’t repair all the damage, it would probably start a process of recovery.

    Great but unlikely by Monday because nobody order online yet

    Still we might know how many asked Apple to be notified of iPad availability

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2010 11:26 AM #42

    TanToday - 30 January 2010 02:38 PM

    STORY HERE

    Read this comment from a Harvard Business School professor.

    I am not sure how this particular writer can call the concepts underlying the iPad “half baked ideas.”

    I strongly recommend that the writer and anyone else who has any questions about the IPad to view the full presentation yesterday. Here is the link: http://events.apple.com.edgesuite.net/1001q3f8hhr/event/index.html

    This product has profound implications for not only publishing but other media. Publishing, however is the one that will be rocked. Let’s begin with book publishing. What we see here is a sea change in the business model and resulting business strategies that will survive in this industry. For starters, the economics of product production have changed dramatically. With electronic book publishing, there is minimal need to manufacture a physical product. Once in electronic form, books of all kinds can be sold, virtually instantaneously to anyone who not only owns an iPad, but to anyone who owns a computer. At present, that is some 500 million or more people world wide. The technological foundations are seemingly effective DRM solutions to what has been a real problem in electronic publishing, unauthorized and copying. By adopting the epublications standard of the publishing industry, highly effective publishing is now with reach of even one-person shops. Nothing magic about this technology. Electronic book publication will become ubiquitous as html, flash and QuickTime, and mp3.

    Very importantly, I think that like html, software developers and even major software companies like Adobe with develop GUI based book publishing tools. These tools will put fire in the hands of the tribes in the hill. That is a good thing for humanity, not a bad thing.

    With the iPad, the possibilities for highly effective teaching and learning tools explodes. I am a former member of the faculty at Harvard Business School, and I have done an extensive amount of executive seminars and work with clients over the past 40 years. I can tell you with great authority that human beings have different kinds of brains that lead them to lean in different ways. Some people learn by reading. Others learn by hearing. Others learn through visuals, including diagrams. Still others learn by hearing a speaker explain something. And, of course, some people use all of these. It also is a fact that all people benefit from the ability to learn privately, including review and re-review of material they may not fully grasp. I have found that older people particularly need private learning tools. With very few exceptions, older people are reluctant to raise their hands and ask questions.

    It also is a fact that some kinds of information simply cannot be conveyed in pure written form. For many years, I served on the Trustee Council of the Boston Medical Center. We oversaw the BU Medical School, Dental School, School of Public Health, and Boston City Hospital. One of the early innovations at the Dental School was the development of CD-based course materials. These were multi-media and showed medical procedures that were impossible to convey any other way.

    The iPad opens all of this up for non-fiction and fiction books alike.

    One of the key issues is pricing. We know that the marginal cost of an electronic book is very close to zero. We know that electronic publications do not require manufacturing. Distribution costs are eliminated. Capital investments in inventory are gone. With credit card purchases, capital investments in accounts receivable are gone. Finally the publisher can sell direct and eliminate the cost of middle men, including retailers. There is no spoilage from goods returned from consignment. The net effect is a dramatic increase in profit margins (% and $) from each book sold. Revisions and new editions can be published on the internet in a matter of seconds. The ROI of this kind of model is stratospheric.

    A strong case can be made that rather than doom smaller publishers, the electronics books and the iPad gives them a dramatic new opportunity. The basis of competition shifts to content, and away from operations and balance sheets. This pattern can be seen across the internet. So, I believe author is dead wrong in his statements about who will survive in the new world of pubishing.

    Somewhere in my mind I seem to remember the publisher of the New York Times saying he would just as soon not publish the Times in physical form. The reasons can be found in the explanations of the new electronic publishing model described above.

    Furthermore, news and magazine publishers can create and deliver content that was heretofore unimaginable. To see what I am talking about check out Sports Illustrated’s concept demo at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntyXvLnxyXk

    None of what I have described above is a rehash of old ideas. Quite the contrary. This makes me wonder if the author has the slightest idea what he is talking about.

    The key issue becomes one of pricing intellectual property.

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    Posted: 30 January 2010 11:42 AM #43

    wheeles - 30 January 2010 01:38 PM

    It would be good if Apple can announce 1M iPads pre-ordered on Monday as I think that would convince many shorts to try elsewhere. While it won’t repair all the damage, it would probably start a process of recovery.

    It would indeed be good. However, orders cannot take place until FCC approval.
    The following is posted on most iPad web pages at Apple:

    This device has not yet been authorized as required by the rules of the Federal Communications Commission. This device is not, and may not be, offered for sale or lease, or sold or leased, until authorization is obtained.

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2010 11:53 AM #44

    WHY Would they want to broadcast the popularity of a device not available for 60-90 days to their competitors?

    I thought the whole idea behind early announcement was locking in forward thinking sales and diminishing sales to competitors. Any release of significant pre-order numbers is icing on the cake.

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2010 11:58 AM #45

    jpashin - 30 January 2010 03:42 PM
    wheeles - 30 January 2010 01:38 PM

    It would be good if Apple can announce 1M iPads pre-ordered on Monday as I think that would convince many shorts to try elsewhere. While it won’t repair all the damage, it would probably start a process of recovery.

    It would indeed be good. However, orders cannot take place until FCC approval.
    The following is posted on most iPad web pages at Apple:

    This device has not yet been authorized as required by the rules of the Federal Communications Commission. This device is not, and may not be, offered for sale or lease, or sold or leased, until authorization is obtained.

    Yes, I admit, I goofed in thinking that Apple were taking orders. I had read a couple of comments elsewhere about how people were reaching for their credit cards and assumed (incorrectly) that you could pre-order. Now I realise you can’t.

    So, will we see a similar trading pattern to that post iPhone announcement with initial selling, then a base forming and a steady upward march until the actual launch date? There are a few differences in that Apple is now a MUCH stronger company, and the economy is in a more fragile state.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore