iPad: the media are navel gazing, size-comparing, puck-watching morons

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    Posted: 30 January 2010 12:27 PM #46

    Tommo_UK - 29 January 2010 05:08 PM

    ... In fact, the only thing that truly didn’t meet Street “expectations” was the price - that’s what’s stopped them slamming the thing into the $170s-180s by now ...

    I’ve a friend, a PC guy who don’t even own an iPod, told me his stock picking newsletter is recommending shorting AAPL on strength and goes long around $160-$180 based on technicals.  Going by Eric’s rule, there should a million similar guys doing so. The price surprised everyone but I believe it only delays the decline to below $180.

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    Posted: 30 January 2010 01:54 PM #47

    This is a good read - Stephen Fry writing in the Guardian.

    “I know there will be many who have already taken one look and pronounced it to be nothing but a large iPhone and something of a disappointment. I have heard these voices before. In June 2007 when the iPhone was launched I collected a long list of “not impressed”, “meh”, “big deal”, “style over substance”, “it’s all hype”, “my HTC TyTN can do more”, “what a disappointment”, “majorly underwhelmed” and similar reactions. They can hug to themselves the excuse that the first release of iPhone was 2G, closed to developers and without GPS, and that cut-and-paste and many other features that have since been incorporated. Neither they, nor I, nor anyone, predicted the game-changing effect the phone would so rapidly have as it evolved into a 3G, third-party app rich, compass- and GPS-enabled market leader. Even if it had proved a commercial and business disaster instead of an astounding success, iPhone would remain the most significant release of its generation because of its effect on the smartphone habitat. Does anybody seriously believe that Google, Nokia, Samsung, Palm, BlackBerry and a dozen others would since have produced the product line they have without the 100,000-volt Taser shot up the jacksie that the iPhone delivered to the entire market?

    Nonetheless, even if they couldn’t see that three billion apps would be downloaded in two years (that’s half a million app downloads a day, give or take) could they not see that this device was gorgeous, beautifully made, very powerful and capable of development into something extraordinary? I see those qualities in the iPad. Like the first iPhone, iPad 1.0 is a John the Baptist preparing the way of what is to come, but also like iPhone 1.0 (and Jokanaan himself too come to that) iPad 1.0 is still fantastic enough in its own right to be classed as a stunningly exciting object, one that you will want now and one that will not be matched this year by any company. In the future, when it has two cameras for fully featured video conferencing, GPS and who knows what else built in (1080 HD TV reception and recording and nano projection, for example) and when the iBook store has recorded its 100-millionth download and the thousands of accessories and peripherals that have invented uses for iPad that we simply can’t now imagine ? when that has happened it will all have seemed so natural and inevitable that today’s nay-sayers and sceptics will have forgotten that they ever doubted its potential.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/jan/29/stephen-fry-apple-ipad

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2010 03:34 PM #48

    oldmac - 30 January 2010 11:42 AM

    ... The stock market should be reserved for true investors only.  If you don’t own the stock, you should not be allowed to sell it.  You should not be allowed to borrow it ...

    Many countries have banned short selling.  In USA where corporations and wealthy guys control the government, government is powerless to do what is good for the average joe.  Apparently, corporations are “people” from the perspective of contributing to political party.  Soon, corporations can vote.

    /end of political rant.

    No reaction and response necessary :evil:.

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    Posted: 30 January 2010 04:12 PM #49

    Mace - 30 January 2010 04:27 PM
    Tommo_UK - 29 January 2010 05:08 PM

    ... In fact, the only thing that truly didn’t meet Street “expectations” was the price - that’s what’s stopped them slamming the thing into the $170s-180s by now ...

    I’ve a friend, a PC guy who don’t even own an iPod, told me his stock picking newsletter is recommending shorting AAPL on strength and goes long around $160-$180 based on technicals.  Going by Eric’s rule, there should a million similar guys doing so. The price surprised everyone but I believe it only delays the decline to below $180.

    I find humor in that recommendation.  The average PC guy probably doesn’t have the time nor inclination to follow the market on an hourly basis so why would they risk shorting AAPL stock.  The stock might move to 160 but it could just as easily move to 240 and the fundamentals of the company are extremely strong so making a bet on the short side is just a short term market play IMO.  I’m sure this newsletter has a great track record.  There are a bunch of other stocks in the market which are much more logical short plays but I guess for every seller their must be a buyer so by definition there is a strange equality in people thinking the stock will go up and down.

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2010 05:26 PM #50

    pats - 30 January 2010 08:12 PM
    Mace - 30 January 2010 04:27 PM
    Tommo_UK - 29 January 2010 05:08 PM

    ... In fact, the only thing that truly didn’t meet Street “expectations” was the price - that’s what’s stopped them slamming the thing into the $170s-180s by now ...

    I’ve a friend, a PC guy who don’t even own an iPod, told me his stock picking newsletter is recommending shorting AAPL on strength and goes long around $160-$180 based on technicals.  Going by Eric’s rule, there should a million similar guys doing so. The price surprised everyone but I believe it only delays the decline to below $180.

    I find humor in that recommendation.  The average PC guy probably doesn’t have the time nor inclination to follow the market on an hourly basis so why would they risk shorting AAPL stock.  The stock might move to 160 but it could just as easily move to 240 and the fundamentals of the company are extremely strong so making a bet on the short side is just a short term market play IMO.  I’m sure this newsletter has a great track record.  There are a bunch of other stocks in the market which are much more logical short plays but I guess for every seller their must be a buyer so by definition there is a strange equality in people thinking the stock will go up and down.

    The hedgies went short a week ago.  When the newsletters start going out to the day-traders, you know it’s to keep the market down while the smart money covers.

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    Posted: 31 January 2010 01:21 AM #51

    Don’t get worked up.  The newsletter is not targeting AAPL only.  It also recommends shorting INTC and MSFT.  Just pure TA-based recommendation.

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    Posted: 31 January 2010 02:25 AM #52

    jpashin - 30 January 2010 03:42 PM
    wheeles - 30 January 2010 01:38 PM

    It would be good if Apple can announce 1M iPads pre-ordered on Monday as I think that would convince many shorts to try elsewhere. While it won’t repair all the damage, it would probably start a process of recovery.

    It would indeed be good. However, orders cannot take place until FCC approval.
    The following is posted on most iPad web pages at Apple:

    This device has not yet been authorized as required by the rules of the Federal Communications Commission. This device is not, and may not be, offered for sale or lease, or sold or leased, until authorization is obtained.

    I thought that was just for the 3G version, but I could be wrong.

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2010 03:49 AM #53

    Well, the iPod touch has the ol’ FCC logo printed on it, so I’m pretty sure FCC approval is needed for both iPad versions.  IIRC FCC approval is needed for all electronic devices. 

    As for the two-stage iPad launch, what can you do.  Market manipulators/sell-side opportunists might make some short-term hay out of the iPad launch week/weekend having “disappointing” sales despite a large chunk of buyers holding out for the 3G version, but we already knew this could happen.  Since Apple will control all iPad sales, I’d like it if Apple would allow for pre-orders a week or more before launch, given the FCC can approve both versions in time.  Not only would it prevent stock price whipsawing if the pre-orders are impressive enough to announce, it’d accomplish something Jeff Bezos can’t bring himself to do…stating actual sales figures… :oh:

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