The Super Bowl predictor of the market has fumbled a few times in recent years, but still has a 79% accuracy rate—way better than NFL quarterbacks. It has predicted the direction of the market accurately after 34 of the 43 Super Bowls, including last year’s.
The quirky indicator is based on whether an “original” National Football League team wins the big game. If an original team wins, the market will rise for the year; it falls if the victory goes a team that joined the NFL because of the merger with the American Football League in 1970.
But the predictor does continue to get respect, including in academic studies. The latest academic paper to discuss it comes from George W. Kester, a finance professor at Washington and Lee University in Virginia. Mr. Kester has written a forthcoming article in the Journal of Investing called “What Happened to the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor?”
In the paper, the professor meticulously breaks down the tape on the predictor’s accuracy. Although the reliability of the indicator has diminished since its 90%-accuracy days, he backtested a market-timing strategy based solely on the outcome of Super Bowl over its history and found that it “would have resulted in more than twice the portfolio value of an investment in the S&P 500—a result that would be the envy of many portfolio managers.”
I was kind of wondering why AAPL was so resilient on friday and this may be the reason
from briefing.com
8:25 AAPL Apple: Meetings with management highlight positive tone - Credit Suisse (195.29 )
Last week, Credit Suisse met with several senior executives at Apple. Little new, near-term information was offered at the meeting, but CS was impressed by management’s upbeat outlook for iPhone share expansion, the Mac’s continued momentum, solid content growth and most notably, the iPad’s potential. In general, CS left the meetings more confident in our positive outlook for the fundamentals and the stock. Apple is CS’s top pick, and it continues to believe investors should build on positions at current levels. The significant profit and cash flow contribution from the iPhone, the addition of the new iPad profit stream, and the accelerating cyclical recovery in the Mac business suggests consensus estimates and the stock should continue to rise.
This normally almost shuts down the Shenzhen facilities of Foxconn the fabricator of much of what AAPL makes these days.
China approaches the start of the Chinese New Year on February 14. China’s Spring Festival then will continue for two weeks of celebration, ending this year on February 28.
On the hourly Ichimoku we are bumping up against the underside of the cloud. There are also a few downtrending lines to get over. It’ll likely be fairly tough going all the way up to 203. Plenty of points at which this rise could fail in the near term.
Macworld Expo Rumor: New MacBook Pros to be revealed tomorrow?
Jonny Evans
February 08, 2010
Apple may introduce new model MacBook Pro models tomorrow, just in time for the opening of Macworld Expo, we’ve learned this evening.
This is yet another leak coming at us out of France, and while we’re not utterly convinced at the source we do note revelation last weekend of an all-new MacBook Pro configuration making an appearance on GeekBench.
French website Nowhere Else claims Apple will introduce the new models tomorrow, citing “an anonymous source who works at Apple”.
The GeekBench tale this weekend shows a MacBook Pro with a Core i7 M 620 clocked at 2.66GHz running an unreleased build of Mac OS X 10.6.2 scoring an impressive 5260.
The scarlet pimpernel of the GeekBench was also running an unreleased version of Mac OS 10.6.2 (Build 10C3067) and Bios MBP61.88Z.004C.B00.1001251657.
And as one final note - other than suggesting a quick glance at the (not especially deep) discounts across the MacBook Pro range on Amazon right now, don’t neglect MacRumors’ claims MacBook Pro inventory has been dwindling…but please carry the caveat that we’re not utterly convinced on the French source.
IF the i7 processors are being used, I think a media event would be a better solution than merely updating the Apple Store.
OT: Jorge Colombo has been posting a weekly sketch and video of New York City, made on his iPhone. You’ll recall he did the New Yorker cover a few months ago.
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