Admob Survey Suggests between 6 and 12 million iPads will sell this year

Poll: Given what is known so far from survey data, what do you estimate will be 2010 iPad unit sales?
Total Votes: 26
2 million or less
1
4 million
2
5 million
8
7 million
15
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    Posted: 25 February 2010 05:11 PM

    I took the data from Admob and the known installed base of iPhones and computed a new estimate for iPad sales.

    The Admob data is based on a small sample but Changewave has a much larger sample of early adopters which showed 13% demand.

    The upper end of demand from just iPhone and iPad users could yield sales of 12 million units though I would stick with 7 million as a conservative estimate.

    Read more here:

    http://blog.asymco.com/2010/02/25/new-survey-data-on-ipad-demand-suggests-significant-upside-from-current-estimates/

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    Posted: 25 February 2010 05:24 PM #1

    I believe the iPhone numbers are a red herring. Apple will sell a huge number of the base model to people who never had an iPhone and have no intention of getting one. I still maintain that the typical iPhone user who may also have a MacBook are not where this product is likely to sell. I believe it will gain huge traction in the 60+ market.

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    Posted: 26 February 2010 12:16 AM #2

    wheeles - 25 February 2010 09:24 PM

    I believe the iPhone numbers are a red herring. Apple will sell a huge number of the base model to people who never had an iPhone and have no intention of getting one. I still maintain that the typical iPhone user who may also have a MacBook are not where this product is likely to sell. I believe it will gain huge traction in the 60+ market.

    I agree.  The 16% if accurate is amazing.  By the time the iPad is out there will be about 40 million iPhone users.  So we are looking at 6.5 million.  Add to that Non Mac users, and Mac users with blackberries, and a few more non computer users, and we hit my 10 million mark in the first 9 months. :-D

         
  • Posted: 26 February 2010 01:45 AM #3

    This product is designed squarely to attack the netbook market with book readers as a second primary market.

    An iPad and a keyboard dock are an exceptional combination for consumers interested in an email and Web surfing device that can be used as a book reader and a device that leverages over 150k existing apps.

    This product will attract non-iPhone owners as much as it will attract select elements of the Mac faithful. In other words, it will expand the Apple universe of product users into new consumer markets.

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2010 02:20 AM #4

    omacvi - 26 February 2010 04:16 AM
    wheeles - 25 February 2010 09:24 PM

    I believe the iPhone numbers are a red herring. Apple will sell a huge number of the base model to people who never had an iPhone and have no intention of getting one. I still maintain that the typical iPhone user who may also have a MacBook are not where this product is likely to sell. I believe it will gain huge traction in the 60+ market.

    I agree.  The 16% if accurate is amazing.  By the time the iPad is out there will be about 40 million iPhone users.  So we are looking at 6.5 million.  Add to that Non Mac users, and Mac users with blackberries, and a few more non computer users, and we hit my 10 million mark in the first 9 months. :-D

    That’s what I came to conclude as well.  The total installed base of iPhone OS devices begins to shape up as follows (for the end of 2010).

    35 million new iPhones (at least, assuming 50% growth only)
    14 million new iPod touch (40% of iPhones)
    10 million new iPads (see above)
    —-
    59 million new devices
    +
    70 million installed base (down from 75 million eoy 2009)
    —-
    ~130 million installed base eoy 2010

    This is well above the 100 million which the iPod took 5.5 years to reach.  It will take the iPhone platform less than 3 years to that point.  That number is significant as network effects really take hold.

    http://blog.asymco.com/2009/11/09/one-hundred-million/

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    Posted: 26 February 2010 02:27 AM #5

    asymco - 26 February 2010 06:20 AM

    That’s what I came to conclude as well.  The total installed base of iPhone OS devices begins to shape up as follows (for the end of 2010).

    35 million new iPhones (at least, assuming 50% growth only)
    14 million new iPod touch (40% of iPhones)
    10 million new iPads (see above)
    —-
    59 million new devices
    +
    70 million installed base (down from 75 million eoy 2009)
    —-
    ~130 million installed base eoy 2010

    This is well above the 100 million which the iPod took 5.5 years to reach.  It will take the iPhone platform less than 3 years to that point.  That number is significant as network effects really take hold.

    http://blog.asymco.com/2009/11/09/one-hundred-million/

    I like those numbers.

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2010 02:32 AM #6

    DawnTreader - 26 February 2010 05:45 AM

    This product is designed squarely to attack the netbook market with book readers as a second primary market.

    An iPad and a keyboard dock are an exceptional combination for consumers interested in an email and Web surfing device that can be used as a book reader and a device that leverages over 150k existing apps.

    This product will attract non-iPhone owners as much as it will attract select elements of the Mac faithful. In other words, it will expand the Apple universe of product users into new consumer markets.

    Completely agree.  The long term path for iPad is disruptive and it will reshape the whole industry.  The question is only one of velocity and momentum not destination.  I hope with this discussion to get some specific initial data point on volumes so that we can project the time frame needed.

    Most later users will get iPads once they see it with their own eyes in the hands of early adopters (or in Apple stores).  All that takes time and an initial base of users.

    The iPhone user base makes a great pool of early adopters and Apple alone is able to take advantage of them.  That base will generate the “live eyeball hits” of later adopters. 10 million devices in the field in 1 year will be a better start than the iPhone or iPod had.

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  • Posted: 26 February 2010 02:54 AM #7

    asymco - 26 February 2010 06:32 AM

    The iPhone user base makes a great pool of early adopters and Apple alone is able to take advantage of them.  That base will generate the “live eyeball hits” of later adopters. 10 million devices in the field in 1 year will be a better start than the iPhone or iPod had.

    Neither the iPhone nor the iPod entered the market with such an array of readily available commercial content. It’s one reason I look at the iPhone and the iPod touch in terms of combined unit sales. Sometime this spring the two products combined will reach 100 million handsets sold. Sales scale with content availability. One lacks the phone option but also the monthly contract.

    Apple is offering the same product choices for the iPad (WiFi or WiFi and 3G) within the same product line.

    What’s unique to the iPad is the draw to consumers otherwise undersold on Apple products. The iPad will increase annual retail store foot traffic by several million visits with many of those visits by consumers who rarely, if ever, venture into the stores.

    The iPod touch becomes the “ultra-portable” companion to the iPad and consumers can leverage their app (and I’m assuming) their magazine subscription investments on both devices. Buying an iPad will lead to sales of iPhones to customers who don’t have one now as increasing percentages of post-paid cellular customers move to smartphones.

    The iTunes stores (including the iBookstore)  essentially create a halo effect for consumers buying Apple hardware devices. That’s why I’m sure we’ll see iPhone app-enabled Macs in the near future. Apps essentially become enriched widgets on the Mac.

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2010 11:21 AM #8

    wheeles - 25 February 2010 09:24 PM

    Apple will sell a huge number of the base model to people who never had an iPhone and have no intention of getting one.

    Count me as a part of this group (except the “no intention” part).

    I have an iPod Touch and a Blackberry paid for by my company.  I have no need to pay for my own iPhone at the moment, no matter how much I want one.

    However, I WILL be buying the $499 iPad to replace my iPod Touch for home use.  It’s my perfect use case: iMac remains in the office, iPad in the living room, iPod Touch in my pocket.  Serious work gets done on the iMac, everything else can be done from the other two devices.

    BUT, I’m starting to talk myself into the $629 3G version on the off chance I would use the 3G; say for a vacation or business trip when I am away from home for a while.

    Apple knows what they are doing, and the price points are just close enough to make you think you can afford the “next” product up from the one you thought you wanted!

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2010 11:57 AM #9

    dc930 - 26 February 2010 03:21 PM

    I have an iPod Touch and a Blackberry paid for by my company.  I have no need to pay for my own iPhone at the moment, no matter how much I want one.

    However, I WILL be buying the $499 iPad to replace my iPod Touch for home use.  It’s my perfect use case: iMac remains in the office, iPad in the living room, iPod Touch in my pocket.  Serious work gets done on the iMac, everything else can be done from the other two devices.

    Almost every day the market is open, one of the first things I do when I wake up (usually around 4am ET, 9am in the UK), is lean over, pick up my iPod touch, fire up iSwim and check what those dastardly S&P eminis traders have been up to. I also have a quick look at my email (I only have a handful a day). It would be great to do that with a larger screened device.

    Also if I am watching sports on TV, I sometimes browse the web with my iPod touch. Yet again an iPad would be so much better to do that with.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2010 12:09 PM #10

    wheeles - 26 February 2010 03:57 PM

    [.......I wake up (usually around 4am ET, 9am in the UK), is lean over, pick up my iPod touch, fire up iSwim and check what those dastardly S&P eminis traders .......

    .......... Yet again an iPad would be so much better to do that with.

    wheels you wake up at 9 a.m.?  must be nice. :wink:

    I agree with you.  Millions wake up and pick up their iPhones or iTouches.

    The iPads will sell millions simply because of the price.  For $499 lots of PC users will be tempted and fall in love. :-D

         
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    Posted: 26 February 2010 12:19 PM #11

    omacvi - 26 February 2010 04:09 PM

    wheels you wake up at 9 a.m.?  must be nice. :wink:

    I go to bed past 1am most nights. Often I like to check what the final AH print is especially if I have a position in play. Sometimes I might keep an eye on the /ES past that time.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore