Kathryn Huberty Predicts Apple Performance

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    Posted: 26 February 2010 11:24 AM

    10 months ago Ms. Huberty released her price target for April 2010 at between $100 and $105. The stock was trading at $121 then and her forecast was for a 14% decline.

    Read more about her investment conclusion, the earnings forecast for the remainder of 2009 and why the stock did not merit a premium to RIMM. See the graph of her forecast as well here:

    http://blog.asymco.com/2010/02/26/kathryn-huberty-predicts-apple-performance/

    Cutting to the chase: she had forecast a price of $100 on a P/E of 21x Calendar 2009 Earnings Per Share. The implication is that EPS would have been $100/21 or $4.7 for calendar 2009.

    She already had one quarter of data ($1.79 for CQ1) therefore she forecast $4.7-$1.79 = $2.97 for the remainder of the 2009 calendar year.

    In reality, Apple earned $10.24 for 2009 and $8.45 for CQ2 through CQ4. That makes her error ($8.45-$2.97)/$2.97 = 184%.

    We see today that she has a new forecast for $225 a share which leads us to conclude that she still has a job.

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