Apple II+ - 20 September 2011 01:42 PM

... One more question about your thesis and your observations: When a multi-month trend was signaled at OE, was this a good predictor of the trend through the next month? longer? or only a description of the trend to date?

Descriptor of the trend to date .

Mace - 20 September 2011 02:29 PM

Apple II+ - 20 September 2011 01:42 PM

... One more question about your thesis and your observations: When a multi-month trend was signaled at OE, was this a good predictor of the trend through the next month? longer? or only a description of the trend to date?

Descriptor of the trend to date .

Alas, I was hoping the “multi-month” part implied a continuation of the trend for at least another month after the first OE. Not sure what the value is in a past trend descriptor over a simple price history.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Since AAPL closed above max pain (Sep), AAPL is in a multi-month rally.

Mace - 25 September 2011 07:26 PM

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Month   Max pain   Highest OI(calls)    Highest OI(puts)
Oct 11    $385          $410                 $390
Nov 11    $380          $400                 $395
Dec 11    $385          $500                 $300
Jan 12    $320          $400                 $350
Apr 12    $370          $430                 $250 

Since AAPL closed above max pain (Sep), AAPL is in a multi-month rally.

Remind me to buy you a drink at the $500 party Mace

Cut n paste from intraday thread.

Please refer to this good Elliottician’s view, Tony Caldaro.  His main site.  He is very bearish about AAPL, implying that AAPL would at least decline to $310 over the next few months, near-term drops to at least $375.  His worse case is scary, don’t want to talk about it, find it out yourselves .  Please note the weekly bearish divergence and the fact that AAPL is about to hit the upper channel line in this graph.

Tony Caldaro didn’t express anything in words about AAPL but with a little EW knowledge, you should be able to hear what his graph says.

Mace, will max pain of 385 hold the down draft given highest OI calls and puts are above 385?  Thanks.

alice - 03 October 2011 04:02 PM

Mace, will max pain of 385 hold the down draft given highest OI calls and puts are above 385?  Thanks.

Wait and see.  If everything remain the same, expect AAPL to be between max pain and highest OI (puts) on OE.

Mace - 03 October 2011 06:01 PM

alice - 03 October 2011 04:02 PM

Mace, will max pain of 385 hold the down draft given highest OI calls and puts are above 385?  Thanks.

Wait and see.  If everything remain the same, expect AAPL to be between max pain and highest OI (puts) on OE.

What do you mean by ‘If everything remain the same’?

alice - 03 October 2011 07:21 PM

Mace - 03 October 2011 06:01 PM

alice - 03 October 2011 04:02 PM

Mace, will max pain of 385 hold the down draft given highest OI calls and puts are above 385?  Thanks.

Wait and see.  If everything remain the same, expect AAPL to be between max pain and highest OI (puts) on OE.

What do you mean by ‘If everything remain the same’?

Max pain and OIs remained unchanged .

Mace - 03 October 2011 06:01 PM

alice - 03 October 2011 04:02 PM

Mace, will max pain of 385 hold the down draft given highest OI calls and puts are above 385?  Thanks.

Wait and see.  If everything remain the same, expect AAPL to be between max pain and highest OI (puts) on OE.

But most every time max pain was below the high OI put going into OE, we closed above max pain. Only exception going back to Feb 2010 was Jan 2011, an anomaly because it was the week after Steve Jobs announced his medical leave.

http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewreply/586368/

So what wave are we on now, Mace?

Zeke - 04 October 2011 02:25 PM

So what wave are we on now, Mace?

Refer to post #532 and #511.

Unique and any Elliotticians,

Is $422.86 the start of a decade long decline?

Mace - 05 August 2011 03:38 PM

patsy - 05 August 2011 02:41 PM

... Apple should break 430 by when to reach to 600?

So long is above $430 is ok, no need for closing basis.  Better worry if AAPL is not above $430 when iPhone 5 is announced.

Wellllllll, This can’t be good.

mbeauch - 07 October 2011 12:26 AM

Mace - 05 August 2011 03:38 PM

patsy - 05 August 2011 02:41 PM

... Apple should break 430 by when to reach to 600?

So long is above $430 is ok, no need for closing basis.  Better worry if AAPL is not above $430 when iPhone 5 is announced.

Wellllllll, This can’t be good.

Make your own plan.