OK, we are halfway through the quarter again.  Time for wild speculation on 2Q Mac shipments.  I kicked things off last quarter in mid November with a then wildly optimistic 3.15mm units.  This quarter I am also feeling very good.  But maybe not quite as good.

No Windows 7 halo any longer; maybe a little drag from the coming iPad.  I am penciling in 2.85mm for 2Q.

What say you?

2,876,766

Not trying to copy from you, capa, it’s just what the spread has been spitting out since late January.

I’m looking at 2.99M but I’ll round up to 3M.  I am anticipating a MacBook Pro and Mac Pro refresh mid March so I will adjust my numbers down if we don’t see the new hardware by then.  Without refresh I’m in for 2.85M.  Looks like the IMac is finally getting into supply/demand balance based on the decrease in wait times.

pats - 18 February 2010 03:56 PM

I’m looking at 2.99M but I’ll round up to 3M.  I am anticipating a MacBook Pro and Mac Pro refresh mid March so I will adjust my numbers down if we don’t see the new hardware by then.  Without refresh I’m in for 2.85M.  Looks like the IMac is finally getting into supply/demand balance based on the decrease in wait times.

Yes. Decreased wait times on the iMac. I don’t expect a Mac Pro refresh to deliver huge unit numbers, but deliver a nice little uptick to ASPs and margin for the quarter.

Should the pace of unit sales growth from FQ1 continue through FQ2, we’d be looking at 2.947 units sold. Working in favor of a consecutive 30%+ growth in unit sales is the economy or at least the economic outlook. Last year consumer attitudes were about as pessimistic as they come.

CPU sales growth peaked at
13% in 2002q1
50% in 2005q3 and
50% in 2008q2,
implying a three year upgrade cycle.

I therefore use the average growth during the four quarters of three years prior to forecast the current quarter sales for CPUs, weighted with the most recent quarter to include current trends. For F2008q2 I am forecasting 27% increase in CPU unit sales, or 2.82M.

Great chart!  Make it yourself?

awcabot - 19 February 2010 07:25 AM

[...]

I therefore use the average growth during the four quarters of three years prior to forecast the current quarter sales for CPUs, weighted with the most recent quarter to include current trends. For F2008q2 I am forecasting 27% increase in CPU unit sales, or 2.82M.

Yes, nice chart.  It is possible you are on to something here, but I am still thinking about the methodology.

Presumably you meant to write “F2010q2” in your last sentence?

dc930 - 19 February 2010 11:10 AM

Great chart!  Make it yourself?

Yes.

capablanca - 19 February 2010 11:39 AM

awcabot - 19 February 2010 07:25 AM

[...]

I therefore use the average growth during the four quarters of three years prior to forecast the current quarter sales for CPUs, weighted with the most recent quarter to include current trends. For F2008q2 I am forecasting 27% increase in CPU unit sales, or 2.82M.

Yes, nice chart.  It is possible you are on to something here, but I am still thinking about the methodology.

Presumably you meant to write “F2010q2” in your last sentence?

uhmmm….yeah…my mistake. Sorry.

Note that it is assumed that CPUs are upgraded every three years, even though four years is my personal target. Apple’s growth rate seems to support that cycle period, even though it doesn’t compensate for economic variables.

Eric Savitz posts some 2Q projections by Tony Berkman.  His numbers are universally positive.  On the subject of Mac he is predicting 3.0mm.

Independent of this, I have become increasingly confident over the last two weeks and am bumping my own number from 2.85 to 2.95.  This with no new MacBook Pro.  Even though it is already overdue for an update, I am thinking it will be April or even May.  If Pats is right, and we get the new MacBook Pros in March, we could see 3.05.

It is looking good for another great quarter.  Then In 3Q we will get a bump from iPad.  And in 4Q we get a bump from iPhone 4.0.  It is shaping up to be a good year to be an Apple shareholder.

3 million units would represent a 35% increase in YOY comparison. That’s in keeping with the December quarter trend of 33% YOY gain in units. I’m not finding estimates in this range surprising. New portables I’m not concerned about. It’s new Mac Pros that are the most intriguing. Not that I expect a huge bump up in aggregate units for the Mac line from this refresh before the end of the month, but new Mac Pros would add nicely to ASPs this quarter and especially next quarter.

In all this could be an impressive transition quarter between product refreshes, delivering strong revenue gains while FQ3 & FQ4 sees a return to sizzling rates of growth for the remainder of the fiscal year. The Apple iPad, which will deliver units sales above that of the Mac line but ASPs closer to the iPhone is a nice revenue and earnings offset for continuing decline in iPod sales (outside of the iPod touch). In other words the Apple iPad will more than compensate for the continuing decline of iPod unit shipments as iPhone OS-equipped devices take center stage in the Apple product line.

Err, whoever did this thread split and left 9 other relevant posts stranded and buried back in page 4 of the forum, please be more careful. Thanks.

deagol - 12 March 2010 04:42 AM

Err, whoever did this thread split and left 9 other relevant posts stranded and buried back in page 4 of the forum, please be more careful. Thanks.

Please provide the post numbers and I’ll merge the topics together.

DawnTreader - 12 March 2010 09:52 AM

deagol - 12 March 2010 04:42 AM

Err, whoever did this thread split and left 9 other relevant posts stranded and buried back in page 4 of the forum, please be more careful. Thanks.

Please provide the post numbers and I’ll merge the topics together.

All posts from page 3 which I linked above seem relevant. #31 to #39. Or perhaps you mean these numbers: 504251, 504255, 504265, 504288, 504289, 504296, 504313, 504320, and 504323.

Yes, I wrestled with the thought of starting a new thread when I first posted my 2Q number.  In the end I thought it useful to have everyone’s 1Q comments handy.

For your consideration, DT:  Leave the threads as they were and rename them to “Mac shipment predictions” without reference to any quarter.  We could then use the thread ad infinitum and always have the history at hand. 

For you to judge.

Back to the top for the moment…