Mac Unit Shipment Predictions

  • Posted: 12 March 2010 11:40 PM #16

    capablanca - 12 March 2010 05:17 PM

    Yes, I wrestled with the thought of starting a new thread when I first posted my 2Q number.  In the end I thought it useful to have everyone’s 1Q comments handy.

    For your consideration, DT:  Leave the threads as they were and rename them to “Mac shipment predictions” without reference to any quarter.  We could then use the thread ad infinitum and always have the history at hand. 

    For you to judge.

    Ok, I merged the selected posts with the new one topic and changed the name of the topic. I do get concerned topics can get quite large. So let’s see how things go from here.

         
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    Posted: 15 March 2010 05:56 PM #17

    PED has an article on Fortune Apple 2.0  with the latest NPD estimates and comments from PiperJaffray.

    Mac unit sales are up. An average of 39% year over year for the first two months of the March quarter, which according to Munster translates into sales of somewhere between 2.8 and 2.9 million Macs for the full quarter. The Street, he says, is looking for Mac sales to be up only about 22%.
    iPod unit sales are up. After a series of 16 consecutive monthly declines, iPod sales are up 7% year over year for the last two months, suggesting total iPod sales of 9 to 10 million for the March quarter. The consensus is closer to 9 million.


    March will be a tougher YOY compare because Apple updated the line in Mar of 2009.  Q2 2009 Apple sold 2.216M units so if we keep growing at 39% that would be 3.08M for the quarter.  Here to hoping new computers come out this week. grin

         
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    Posted: 17 March 2010 10:56 AM #18

    This article looks a little further ahead - worth reading:

    Apple’s iMac to account for 25% of global desktop growth in 2010


    After roughly two years of declines, growth in worldwide market for desktop PC sales is poised to rebound into the black during the 2010 calendar year, thanks largely to Apple’s latest iMac offerings, according to a published report.

    In a research note issued Wednesday by Caris & Company, analyst Robert Cihra said growth in the overall PC market for 2010 is trending upwards of 15 to 20%, fueled by greater than 90% growth in combined sales of netbooks and notebooks.

    At the same time, however, he said desktop sales are showing signs of life for the first time in 24 months, given strong performance of Apple’s iMac line that could boost year-over-year shipments by approximately 3%, compared to last year’s 12% slippage.

    “We continue to model note/netbook accounting for greater than 90% of PC unit growth in 2010, but with desktops at least now looking like they?ve stopped eroding and can resume at least some low single-digit recovery after 2 years of decline, driven by emerging markets, corporate workhorse use and power gamers,” Cihra wrote. “But believe it or not, we estimate Apple?s iMac accounting for a full 1/4 of ALL desktop market growth in calendar year 2010.”

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/10/03/17/apples_imac_to_account_for_25_of_global_desktop_growth_in_2010.html

         
  • Posted: 17 March 2010 11:52 PM #19

    pats - 15 March 2010 08:56 PM

    PED has an article on Fortune Apple 2.0  with the latest NPD estimates and comments from PiperJaffray.

    Mac unit sales are up. An average of 39% year over year for the first two months of the March quarter, which according to Munster translates into sales of somewhere between 2.8 and 2.9 million Macs for the full quarter. The Street, he says, is looking for Mac sales to be up only about 22%.
    iPod unit sales are up. After a series of 16 consecutive monthly declines, iPod sales are up 7% year over year for the last two months, suggesting total iPod sales of 9 to 10 million for the March quarter. The consensus is closer to 9 million.


    March will be a tougher YOY compare because Apple updated the line in Mar of 2009.  Q2 2009 Apple sold 2.216M units so if we keep growing at 39% that would be 3.08M for the quarter.  Here to hoping new computers come out this week. grin

    I find the iPod unit sales growth more intriguing. The iPod touch must be pulling in some nice numbers. That bodes well for the iPhone OS eco-system and for a successful launch of the Apple iPad in particular.

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2010 12:17 AM #20

    It should be easy to beat numbers all the way till August. I expect April EPS will be very good followed by a spectacular July, then the work begins. :apple:

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  • Posted: 18 March 2010 02:14 AM #21

    mbeauch - 18 March 2010 03:17 AM

    It should be easy to beat numbers all the way till August. I expect April EPS will be very good followed by a spectacular July, then the work begins.

    I’m not worried. Please remember these are US sales and Apple’s domestic sales rebounded more quickly than the PC competition. At some point units sales growth will necessarily moderate in the States. International sales holds the real potential for strong Mac unit sales growth as we move into the fall and winter months.

    I do expect Apple to have robust graduation and back-to-school seasons again this year. A question mark surrounds education sales in the June quarter. Are schools coming back to the table this year or will another year be needed before spending rebounds?

         
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    Posted: 18 March 2010 02:44 AM #22

    DawnTreader - 18 March 2010 05:14 AM
    mbeauch - 18 March 2010 03:17 AM

    It should be easy to beat numbers all the way till August. I expect April EPS will be very good followed by a spectacular July, then the work begins.

    I’m not worried. Please remember these are US sales and Apple’s domestic sales rebounded more quickly than the PC competition. At some point units sales growth will necessarily moderate in the States. International sales holds the real potential for strong Mac unit sales growth as we move into the fall and winter months.

    I do expect Apple to have robust graduation and back-to-school seasons again this year. A question mark surrounds education sales in the June quarter. Are schools coming back to the table this year or will another year be needed before spending rebounds?


    Exactly, I think the Oct EPS will be a challenge. That is the QTR that I do not see being as good as this coming Apr and July. School systems in Ga are actually closing schools. This is putting 2nd graders in the same building as 12th graders. Not good. I do not look for there to be an expansion of spending into tech until the classroom situation can get back to normal. What angers me is that Ga started a lottery years ago to pay for schools. Then the politicians put the proceeds from the lottery into the general budget, there you go. Money that was suppose to go to schools ended up going elsewhere. Money that is appropriated for schools should never be diverted. JMO :apple:

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  • Posted: 18 March 2010 03:02 AM #23

    mbeauch - 18 March 2010 05:44 AM


    Exactly, I think the Oct EPS will be a challenge.

    September quarter EPS will be depend more on iPhone sales than Mac sales. Apple is opening new retail stores overseas and the market is essentially wide open considering Apple’s comparatively low Mac market share in most regions.

    Watch for strong overseas gains that will more than offset a moderation in US Mac unit shipment growth in the September and December quarters.

         
  • Posted: 18 March 2010 03:07 AM #24

    a weak US dollar will help with off shore sales. Looks live the US dollar will languish for some time yet. Are interest rate still falling in the US? or have they bottomed out?

         
  • Posted: 19 March 2010 02:31 AM #25

    benoir - 18 March 2010 06:07 AM

    a weak US dollar will help with off shore sales. Looks live the US dollar will languish for some time yet. Are interest rate still falling in the US? or have they bottomed out?

    Interest have moved ever so lightly higher from generational lows and will most likely creep gradually higher over the next several months.

    Aside fro interest rates and currency exchange rates, there’s plenty of potential for unit sales gains across product lines in virtually all global markets.

         
  • Posted: 21 March 2010 12:15 AM #26

    DawnTreader - 18 March 2010 06:02 AM
    mbeauch - 18 March 2010 05:44 AM


    Exactly, I think the Oct EPS will be a challenge.

    September quarter EPS will be depend more on iPhone sales than Mac sales. Apple is opening new retail stores overseas and the market is essentially wide open considering Apple’s comparatively low Mac market share in most regions.

    Watch for strong overseas gains that will more than offset a moderation in US Mac unit shipment growth in the September and December quarters.

    I’m not worried about Sept Qtr. EPS either.  The markets have never been larger for the iPhone, and if Steve is right about the next iPhone being an A1 update, we will be more than fine.  This will be the first quarter of the new iPhone’s release and all unit/gross will fall into it.  Too, traction with the iPad demand and production should be in full swing.

    [ Edited: 21 March 2010 12:19 AM by ByeTMO ]      
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    Posted: 25 March 2010 03:47 PM #27

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    Tightwad.

         
  • Posted: 25 March 2010 09:20 PM #28

    awcabot - 25 March 2010 06:47 PM

    This is a metric to which Cook has referred more than once.  It is even more striking than the graph shows when you consider that the “Global PC” number includes netbooks which yield little or no profit.

    The Mac business is healthy.  I don’t think we will it 3.0mm this quarter, but we are making a run at it.

         
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    Posted: 26 March 2010 11:04 AM #29

    capablanca - 26 March 2010 12:20 AM

    ...when you consider that the “Global PC” number includes netbooks which yield little or no profit.

    Yeah, let’s see the same thing with YoY Revenue Growth, not Units!

         
  • Posted: 26 March 2010 11:18 AM #30

    dc930 - 26 March 2010 02:04 PM
    capablanca - 26 March 2010 12:20 AM

    ...when you consider that the “Global PC” number includes netbooks which yield little or no profit.

    Yeah, let’s see the same thing with YoY Revenue Growth, not Units!

    Most likely Mac ASPs will be down slightly YOY. The Macs are attractively priced and the more aggressive pricing is, in part, boosting unit sales.