The Next Big Thing from Apple?

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    Posted: 28 March 2010 10:18 AM #16

    the quatro wireless site uses flash :-(

    I agree with Snipus’s point that ES at GOOG pushed Android as a solution to avoid the possibility of being locked out of the smartphone ad market if Apple dominated it. The ironic thing is that it solidified the very conditions it was meant to protect against. If the gov turns down GOOG’s AdMob purchase things should become very interesting.

    Another small point is that Apple originally hoped to avoid local apps running on iPhone OS (remember there were no 3rd party apps running on iPhone OS when the iPhone was launched… except for Google’s! and hoped that devs would build web apps. If that vision had come true then Google wouldn’t have needed to dev Android as web based apps would have left Google in a positon to dominate the smartphone app space. But when Apple developed the SDK for building apps and the app situation exploded, Google really needed a plan B. How different things might have been.

    One of the things I really like about Apple is how they keep developing sustainable revenue streams.

    [ Edited: 28 March 2010 10:24 AM by relentlessFocus ]

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  • Posted: 28 March 2010 11:04 AM #17

    relentlessFocus - 28 March 2010 01:18 PM

    Another small point is that Apple originally hoped to avoid local apps running on iPhone OS (remember there were no 3rd party apps running on iPhone OS when the iPhone was launched… except for Google’s! and hoped that devs would build web apps.

    I don’t think this was really true. Just SJ cranking up the reality distortion while (a) jailbreakers/hackers swarmed over the OS, found the insecurities and Apple fixed them (b) the SDK and associated developer web services were completed and (c) Google, Adobe, MS et al were kept away from even planning native development. (The Maps and Youtube client side was done by Apple AFAIK).

    On the other hand, I don’t think Apple remotely foresaw how little interest there would be in web app development, and how much in native apps.

         
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    Posted: 28 March 2010 11:43 AM #18

    sleepygeek - 28 March 2010 02:04 PM

    I don’t think this was really true. Just SJ cranking up the reality distortion while (a) jailbreakers/hackers swarmed over the OS, found the insecurities and Apple fixed them (b) the SDK and associated developer web services were completed and (c) Google, Adobe, MS et al were kept away from even planning native development.

    I’ll agree to disagree esp. as it’s just conjecture on both our sides…

    (The Maps and Youtube client side was done by Apple AFAIK).

    My understanding also. But Google and Apple teams were working closely at that point (before the iPhone introduction) which belies their current relationship.

    On the other hand, I don’t think Apple remotely foresaw how little interest there would be in web app development, and how much in native apps.

    In any case, agreed.

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    Posted: 29 March 2010 11:29 AM #19

    AdamT - I, for one, am cautious to make projections until there’s more tangible news. The Quattro purchase (and previous bid for AdMob blocked by Google) looked to me more like a defense—or late counter-offense—against Google once it became clear the latter is seriously pushing into the phone market. I have no doubt Apple will find a way to monetize their mobile platform more effectively with Quattro than they’re currently doing, but I’ll trust the news when I see it. If it comes out as soon as 4/7 - all the better.

    I do think iAd is a terrible name. How do you pronounce that?

    This week the media’s attention will be on the iPad launch.

         
  • Posted: 31 March 2010 08:49 AM #20

    From Om Malik via Businessweek:

    ‘‘Analysts are expecting a hit. Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Katy Huberty expects Apple to ship more than 6 million iPads this year, far higher than the consensus expectation of 3 to 4 million units. Huberty expects 2.5 million iPads to ship between March and May and an additional 750,000 during the June quarter. She points out that iPad suppliers are estimating that Apple will make between 8 and 10 million of these devices. For each million iPads sold, she estimates that Apple will earn an additional 25? a share.

    I think Huberty might herself be underestimating the iPad’s money-making potential. Having played around with one for 20 minutes, I can tell you that this device will make users spend far more money on apps, books, music, and other content than they do via the iPhone. Given that Apple takes roughly 30% of sales, the iPad could be another bonanza in the making.’‘

         
  • Posted: 31 March 2010 10:48 AM #21

    SNIPUS - 31 March 2010 11:49 AM

    From Om Malik via Businessweek:

    ‘‘Analysts are expecting a hit. Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Katy Huberty expects Apple to ship more than 6 million iPads this year, far higher than the consensus expectation of 3 to 4 million units. Huberty expects 2.5 million iPads to ship between March and May and an additional 750,000 during the June quarter. She points out that iPad suppliers are estimating that Apple will make between 8 and 10 million of these devices. For each million iPads sold, she estimates that Apple will earn an additional 25? a share.

    I think Huberty might herself be underestimating the iPad’s money-making potential. Having played around with one for 20 minutes, I can tell you that this device will make users spend far more money on apps, books, music, and other content than they do via the iPhone. Given that Apple takes roughly 30% of sales, the iPad could be another bonanza in the making.’‘

    Katy Huberty has an uncharacteristically high price target for AAPL. I suspect she has the target right but is being conservative in the underlying iPad sales forecast. This leaves room to up the forecast as sales begin and gain critical mass. I expect her unit sales forecasts to ramp higher but not necessarily her target price to move in tandem. She’s already forecast more units sold in the target price IMHO.

         
  • Posted: 31 March 2010 09:58 PM #22

    ABC News has a sneak peak at the iPad:

    http://gizmodo.com/5506841/abc-video-shows-new-musical-ipad-app

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 04:54 AM #23

    I’ve been skeptical of the ” It doesn’t compete with laptops.” line.  Most functions common to the laptop can be accomplished with the iPad. A few tasks seem to remain the domain of the laptop. In the end I think the iPad will grow the Apple ecosphere and contribute to the inroads Apple is making on competing platforms . If it’s not mobile, it’s not contributing to evolving modern lifestyles.

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 07:46 PM #24

    Tidbits is reporting that the App Store is about to become a franchise operation with Apple taking 10% and only providing guidelines. This is big. “Different” content.

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 07:51 PM #25

    danthemason - 01 April 2010 10:46 PM

    Tidbits is reporting that the App Store is about to become a franchise operation with Apple taking 10% and only providing guidelines. This is big. “Different” content.

    And the date?

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  • Posted: 01 April 2010 08:22 PM #26

    Thats all there is.

         
  • Posted: 02 April 2010 04:53 AM #27

    Suckered again.

    Thanks Artman

         
  • Posted: 02 April 2010 06:31 AM #28

    iPad, the destroyer: 19 things it will kill

    Sometimes I find Daniel Eran Dilger a bit over the top. But this time I don’t.