The iPad: Apple Turns Back The Hands of Time

  • Posted: 30 March 2010 01:34 PM #16

    I’m a big believer in the iPad, and putting my mouth where my money is on my blog iPadAlone.com.  I’ll be using the iPad as my primary computer, and I too believe it represents a sea change in “where things go from here.”

    We’ll look back in 5, 10, 25, years, and point to the iPad as the device that unleashed the promise held by the iPhone/iPT’s interface…

    As for the stock….....well, I’m a big believer in the law of large numbers.  Could it eclipse Mobil after Walmart and Microsoft?  Sure.  But that’s tough to do, and tough to sustain.  If anyone can do it, it’s Apple/SJ of course….

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  • Posted: 30 March 2010 01:47 PM #17

    anthonymoody - 30 March 2010 04:34 PM

    I’m a big believer in the iPad, and putting my mouth where my money is on my blog iPadAlone.com.

    You have an intriguing concept for your Website. I suggest putting a link to the site in the signature of your profile.

         
  • Posted: 30 March 2010 01:50 PM #18

    Thanks!  And done! smile

    I’m really excited about my decision - I feel like an explorer of sorts.  Thousands (okay millions) will use an iPad.  But how many will forsake an MBP in the process?

    I’ll leave my household iMac in place to continue to serve as it does now as a central hub to store/sync media and pix.  Other than that, it’s all iPad all the time…

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  • Posted: 30 March 2010 02:01 PM #19

    relentlessFocus - 30 March 2010 03:23 PM

    He said that modern portfolio theory is pushed by “advisors” because it makes the brokers rich but rich people get rich by putting all their eggs in one basket and then watching that one basket very very closely.

    A few years back I had lunch with a successful wealth manager. He handle individual accounts and advised institutions on asset management. He told me the majority of his wealthy individual clients created wealth from only one stock.

    Of course the challenge is: Which stock?

    Right now I really like Apple.  grin

         
  • Posted: 30 March 2010 02:16 PM #20

    Well the reality is somewhere in between.  Or at least the truth is.  Yes - the upside is FAR FAR FAR greater when putting all eggs into one basket.  Or even if it’s not “all eggs” just a few let to sit for a long enough period of time. 

    But the risk is commensurately higher as well.  So yes, if watched closely - and I mean VERY closely - you may be able to protect against the doomsday scenario (e.g. a massive corporate misstep that you foresee the results of before it hits quarterly results).  But if not - it’s a heck of a lot easier to lose all your money in one stock than it is in say a broad index fund.

    But even watching closely can’t eliminate all risk.  For an extreme example…if a bomb goes off in Moscone Center at the next big Apple show, and SJ, Cook, ives, and say the next top 10 folks at the company are all wiped out - do you really want all your wealth in Apple stock?

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    Posted: 30 March 2010 02:44 PM #21

    Techcrunch has an interesting view from an early iPad believer.

    I?m sentimental this week, and thinking about the past, because I have seen the future. The future is not a Mac, or even a PC. Its father created a lot of the computers I?ve loved: Apple IIe, Mac, and iPhone. There have been others I have loved, even some PCs and yes, my Blackberry, but none of that matters anymore. Looking ahead, I am energized, a door is opening, and we are all going to walk through it. We?ll soon enter a new world of computing accelerated once again by the industry?s creator Steve Jobs, and amplified by someone conceived after the PC, Mark Zuckerberg.

    The future of our industry now looks totally different than the past. It looks like a sheet of paper, and it?s called the iPad. It?s not about typing or clicking; it?s about touching. It?s not about text, or even animation, it?s about video. It?s not about a local disk, or even a desktop, it?s about the cloud. It?s not about pulling information; it?s about push. It?s not about repurposing old software, it?s about writing everything from scratch (because you want to take advantage of the awesome potential of the new computers and the new cloud?and because you have to reach this pinnacle). Finally, the industry is fun again.

         
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    Posted: 30 March 2010 03:26 PM #22

    anthonymoody - 30 March 2010 05:16 PM

    snip… But if not - it’s a heck of a lot easier to lose all your money in one stock than it is in say a broad index fund.

    But even watching closely can’t eliminate all risk.  For an extreme example…if a bomb goes off in Moscone Center at the next big Apple show, and SJ, Cook, ives, and say the next top 10 folks at the company are all wiped out - do you really want all your wealth in Apple stock?

    If I was very wealthy and could generate a living income from my investments using MPT then I would though for many it was no protection against the great correction of ‘09. I am not recommending this to anyone else but to me AAPL seems like the least risky investment one can make today to generate serious ROI. Not risk free as you pointed out but least risky.

    Good luck with your iPad specific site.

    Eric

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    Posted: 30 March 2010 03:31 PM #23

    pats - 30 March 2010 05:44 PM

    Techcrunch has an interesting view from an early iPad believer]

    who also happens to be Chairman and CEO of Salesforce.com…

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    Posted: 30 March 2010 03:39 PM #24

    You can’t help but understand why iPhone app developers are enthusiastic re-releasing their iPhone apps (after a little fiddling) as iPad apps dictating higher prices.

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  • Posted: 30 March 2010 06:57 PM #25

    anthonymoody - 30 March 2010 05:16 PM

    But even watching closely can’t eliminate all risk.  For an extreme example…if a bomb goes off in Moscone Center at the next big Apple show, and SJ, Cook, ives, and say the next top 10 folks at the company are all wiped out - do you really want all your wealth in Apple stock?

    Whatever might be lost under such a extreme event is something that hadn’t been gained without their hard work. One is no worse off than when they started investing in the company and most likely for long-term investors there would still be huge gains.

    Nothing comes with a guarantee. I’ll ask this question: What are the chances of AAPL doubling versus the chance of such an unlikely disaster? Considering the odds of each event, I’m better off taking the risk.

         
  • Posted: 30 March 2010 06:59 PM #26

    macglenn - 30 March 2010 06:39 PM

    You can’t help but understand why iPhone app developers are enthusiastic re-releasing their iPhone apps (after a little fiddling) as iPad apps dictating higher prices.

    That’s a huge benefit of being an iPhone app developer. The addressable market is growing by the day and higher margin opportunities are now available via of the Apple iPad.

         
  • Posted: 30 March 2010 07:54 PM #27

    anthonymoody - 30 March 2010 12:16 PM
    But even watching closely can?t eliminate all risk.  For an extreme example?if a bomb goes off in Moscone Center at the next big Apple show, and SJ, Cook, ives, and say the next top 10 folks at the company are all wiped out - do you really want all your wealth in Apple stock?

    Then there is the alien threat.

         
  • Posted: 31 March 2010 10:33 AM #28

    danthemason - 30 March 2010 10:54 PM

    Then there is the alien threat.

    You mean the Droid?

    It turned not to be much of a threat after all. Big ad budgets don’t always work.  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 31 March 2010 10:35 AM #29

    Time to get back on topic. This is an encore post:

    This is it folks. The Apple iPad nears release.

    I see this product as an embarkation point for publishers and other content providers to jump on the Apple economic flagship.

    In my view the iPad represents the end of the PC era as we know it and this product will eviscerate the last vestiges of one of Apple’s biggest corporate blunders. For more on that that point of view please see my latest post at Eventide.

    I haven’t been this excited about a new Apple product since the release of the original Bondi blue iMac. I expect the Apple iPad to transform the way we consume and carry content.

    From an economic standpoint the iPad is a product that will have an economic impact on an eco-system beyond that of the release of Win 95 fifteen years ago.

    It’s now the Apple era. Apple has turned back the hands of the time and for the next few years will reign as the undisputed global leader in mobile communications and mobile content distribution and consumption. I’m that bullish on this product. I expect Apple to hit my 12-month price target of $384 per share.

    The adoption of the iPad on a global scale will determine how quickly the shares reach $400 and how far above that price the share ultimately travel.