No You Can’t Have it Back

  • Posted: 01 April 2010 09:56 AM

    The pundits are now coming out in force in favorable reviews of the iPad.  Most of them say the same things, with the obligatory “downsides” tossed in for balance.

    But my favorite sentence so far is this one from Bob LeVitus of the Houston Chronicle:

    “Speaking of my wife, prior to our iPad’s arrival she said she didn’t understand why anyone would want or need an iPad. Now she just keeps saying, “No, you can’t have it back.”“

    That singlehandedly demonstrates why everyone’s projections on iPad demand is absurdly low.  Demand, already strong, is going to skyrocket once this puppy is out in the wild.  I’m sticking to my previously stick-out-my-neck prediction of 20 million iPads sold this year, subject only to Apple’s ability to actually produce that many this year. 

    And if Apple fails to produce that many, it is going to be a big year for marriage counselors arbitrating arguments over who uses the iPad in the house.

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 11:30 AM #1

    macorange - 01 April 2010 12:56 PM

      I’m sticking to my previously stick-out-my-neck prediction of 20 million iPads sold this year, subject only to Apple’s ability to actually produce that many this year.

    Someone please etch this in stone.  grin

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2010 11:53 AM #2

    LOL

    My prediction is 10 million this year and 20 million next year.

    There is so much buzz, I am actually amazed.  Apple will have millions walking into their stores looking at the latest technology.  After they touch the iPad they they won’t want to put it down.  A few will start to save money for Christmas.

    But the real kicker is that out of those millions walking into Apple Stores or Best Buys, a few hundred thousand will buy a Mac for the first time. :-D

    That is when millions more in a few years will say. ” I can’t believe I was on a PC for all those years”

    And in five year the sponge will be very rich :-D

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2010 12:08 PM #3

    My prediction is that iPad has about 3 months to shine, a honeymoon of sorts when people will be mostly fawning over what it does well and giving it slack for what it doesn’t do well. By summer, other players will be bringing Windows 7 and Android tablets at lower price points with more open and standard expandability. And the Flash question will loom larger than ever. We will find out if Steve was just posturing, in which case, we’ll know not to take him too seriously in the future, or whether he’s stubborn, in which case there will be an epic beat down. Get this song from the first Droid commercial in your head now…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdhnV4d-a0Y

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2010 12:19 PM #4

    Che Bosco - 01 April 2010 03:08 PM

    My prediction is that iPad has about 3 months to shine, a honeymoon of sorts when people will be mostly fawning over what it does well and giving it slack for what it doesn’t do well. By summer, other players will be bringing Windows 7 and Android tablets at lower price points with more open and standard expandability. And the Flash question will loom larger than ever. We will find out if Steve was just posturing, in which case, we’ll know not to take him too seriously in the future, or whether he’s stubborn, in which case there will be an epic beat down. Get this song from the first Droid commercial in your head now…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdhnV4d-a0Y

    I am not so sure.  Apple sold millions of iPhones and iPod touches without Flash.  Obviously only a few people care about Flash.

    Secondly it took Google 2.5 years to come up with the droid.  I don’t see them coming out with an iPad like device by this summer.  time will tell but history tends to favor Apple when it comes to innovation and copycats from the other side.

    The droid offered on a better network still does not generate the buzz of the iPhone on a crappy network.

    My friend has a droid and he is hardly on it.  If you don’t play with it, who will your friends want to have one?

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2010 12:35 PM #5

    80 million regular FarmVille players. I wonder if that will become a silent protest in the Apple retail stores… Try to play FarmVille on an iPad grin.

    Android phone unit sales are on course to exceed iPhone unit sales this month. Gizmodo today noted that a very promising Android tablet is being delayed by the Tegra platform, not the Android OS. Slow, steady, and open will win the race. That’s not to say that the Apple niche won’t be interesting, but it will be a niche, 5% - 10%.

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 12:53 PM #6

    macorange - 01 April 2010 12:56 PM

    And if Apple fails to produce that many, it is going to be a big year for marriage counselors arbitrating arguments over who uses the iPad in the house.

    That’s why you need to pre-order 2 iPads wink

    Oh, you didn’t pre-order 2?  Well, for the price of one iPad you can get 5 or 6 hours of Marriage counseling.  Hopefully the problem will be resolved enough to wait for the next wave of shipments.

    Andy

    [ Edited: 01 April 2010 12:56 PM by Andyda ]      
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 02:28 PM #7

    Che Bosco - 01 April 2010 03:08 PM

    [...]And the Flash question will loom larger than ever. We will find out if Steve was just posturing, in which case, we’ll know not to take him too seriously in the future, or whether he’s stubborn, in which case there will be an epic beat down.[...]

    SJ stubborn?  As Simply Red put it:

    “If you don’t know me by now, You will never never never know me…”

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 03:53 PM #8

    Che Bosco - 01 April 2010 03:08 PM

    By summer, other players will be bringing Windows 7 and Android tablets at lower price points with more open and standard expandability.

    The Wintel industry is quite the joke machine, isn’t it? It refuses to innovate.

    And the Flash question will loom larger than ever.

    You meant smaller than ever, Che B? The conversion to open standards has already begun…

    [ Edited: 01 April 2010 03:57 PM by deasys ]      
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    Posted: 01 April 2010 04:10 PM #9

    +

    Che Bosco - 01 April 2010 03:08 PM

    ....And the Flash question will loom larger than ever…..

    Read it and weep:
    Netflix, Hulu, CBS, ABC, TED, Flickr, more readying for iPad

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    mrmwebmax (formerly mrmgraphics)
    Max out your site! mrmwebmax.com

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2010 04:13 PM #10

    and weep some more HERE  The internet is doing a flashy strip-tease.  :groucho:

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    The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it. The process by which banks create money is so simple the mind is repelled.

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 04:56 PM #11

    Che Bosco - 01 April 2010 03:35 PM

    80 million regular FarmVille players. I wonder if that will become a silent protest in the Apple retail stores… Try to play FarmVille on an iPad grin.

    Android phone unit sales are on course to exceed iPhone unit sales this month. Gizmodo today noted that a very promising Android tablet is being delayed by the Tegra platform, not the Android OS. Slow, steady, and open will win the race. That’s not to say that the Apple niche won’t be interesting, but it will be a niche, 5% - 10%.

    There’s two ways to look at the Android handsets. Market share (who cares?) and overall revenue take in the industry by player.

    Android handsets, like netbooks, will sell millions of units. But the profit take by manufacturer will be miniscule by comparison to Apple’s take in the market.

    The only enterprise that will gain materially from Android sales is Google (with a slight nod to Acer for possibly making handsets a profitable deal in keeping with their business model).

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 04:57 PM #12


    ................ a very promising Android tablet is being delayed

    That about says it all. But no mention of that pesky Apple chip in the iPad that runs on and on for over 10 hours.

    There remains a herd of competition chasing Apple’s latest and greatest. It’s been that way for some time now. Apple just finds new gears for the race.

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 05:47 PM #13

    Che Bosco - 01 April 2010 03:08 PM

    My prediction is that iPad has about 3 months to shine, a honeymoon of sorts when people will be mostly fawning over what it does well and giving it slack for what it doesn’t do well. By summer, other players will be bringing Windows 7 and Android tablets at lower price points with more open and standard expandability. And the Flash question will loom larger than ever.

    We may see 5 million iPads sold this fiscal year and around 8 million units this calendar year.

    Android tablets are a non-factor in the consumer space and Microsoft will have its hands full trying to regain economic footing in the smartphone market. Neither will pose real competition for the iPad this calendar year.

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2010 06:08 PM #14

    look no flash . . . this from apple:

    iPad Ready
    iPad features Safari, a mobile web browser that supports the latest web standards ? including HTML5, CSS3, and JavaScript. Here are just a few of the sites that take advantage of these web standards to deliver content that looks and functions beautifully on iPad.


    http://www.apple.com/ipad/ready-for-ipad/

         
  • Posted: 01 April 2010 06:13 PM #15

    Che Bosco - 01 April 2010 03:08 PM

    My prediction is that iPad has about 3 months to shine, a honeymoon of sorts when people will be mostly fawning over what it does well and giving it slack for what it doesn’t do well. By summer, other players will be bringing Windows 7 and Android tablets at lower price points with more open and standard expandability. And the Flash question will loom larger than ever. We will find out if Steve was just posturing, in which case, we’ll know not to take him too seriously in the future, or whether he’s stubborn, in which case there will be an epic beat down.

    Wow, just wow.

    “My prediction is that iPad has about 3 months to shine, a honeymoon of sorts when people will be mostly fawning over what it does well and giving it slack for what it doesn’t do well.”

    Duly noted. But you are incredibly short-sighted (or perhaps hoping to short Apple) if you cannot see the potential here. It is not the hardware. That is the groundwork. The truth is that this device will be driven by the quality and the potential of the apps that will be built for it.

    This is the original Mac for the 2010’s and in ten years you will see why everything changed after April 3rd, 2010.

    “By summer, other players will be bringing Windows 7 and Android tablets at lower price points with more open and standard expandability.”

    Well they now have the target to aim for and they will continue to make the same mistakes they aways make because they are listening to the wrong people. They think that a tablet is a list of bullet points and will listen to the Geeks and give them everything they want.

    Unfortunately the problem with giving the geeks what they want is twofold.

    Firstly geeks don’t buy stuff. They loved building their own PCs on the cheap and hacking together boxes. But they don’t buy.

    Secondly when you start chucking in all the list of stuff geeks want you end up with an unreliable machine. So look forward to your Windows 7 and android tablets - and remember to download that essential task killer app - you’re going to need it.

    “And the Flash question will loom larger than ever.”

    There is no Flash question. Flash is dead.

    “We will find out if Steve was just posturing, in which case, we’ll know not to take him too seriously in the future, or whether he’s stubborn, in which case there will be an epic beat down.”

    What a moronic comment.

    edit: typos

    [ Edited: 24 June 2010 09:02 AM by John Molloy ]

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