AAPL 2nd Fiscal Quarter - AFB Member Estimates

  • Posted: 11 April 2010 08:17 PM

    So far we have the Four Horsemen of the AFB* mounting up with estimates for Apple’s 2 fiscal quarter:

    Mercel
    DT
    awcabot
    pats

    Let’s get at it. I’ll have my estimates by midweek and will post my numbers at Eventide and in the AFB.

    Let’s get started…


    *Deagol is in a class all his own.  grin

    [ Edited: 12 April 2010 10:10 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 11 April 2010 09:14 PM #1

    First I will apologize for the lack of formatting and if anyone can give me a clue on exporting Numbers to HTML compatible format it would make this much easier.  The numbers are purely for bragging rights and you should do your own due diligence.  As I said in a previous post,  I worry most if my numbers are below analysis consensus since the consensus number from the pro’s are what the market is using.  Better to beat then get it perfect on the wrong side. :wink: 
    Data Summary

    Desktops Units                   1145
    Desktops Revenue               1546
    Portables Units                     1845
    Portables Revenue                 2307
    Subtotal CPU?s Units               2991
    Subtotal CPU?s Revenue           3853
    IPOD Units                         11223
    IPOD Revenue                       1820
    Other Music Related               1311
    Iphone Units                         7000
    Iphone and Related Revenue       4410
    Peripherals and Other Hardware   412
    Software, Services and Other Sales 719
    IPAD Units                                 0
    IPAD Revenue                             0
    Total Apple                           12524    
    Desktop ASP                           1350
    Portable ASP                             1250
    IPOD ASP                                 162
    Iphone ASP                               630
    IPAD ASP

    Net Sales                               12524
    Cost of Sales                             7515
    Gross Margin                             5010
    GM %                                          .40
    R&D                                           350
    SGA                                         1065
    Operating Expense                       1415
    OI&E                                           45
    Income Before taxes                     3640
    Income Tax                                 1092
    Net Income                                 2548

    Diluted Shares                               920

    EPS                                             2.77
    TTM                                           11.22

    PPS                                             280

    [ Edited: 12 April 2010 09:15 AM by pats ]      
  • Posted: 11 April 2010 09:25 PM #2

    My #s are a work in progress, as I’m busy with April 15.  Pats, don’t worry about the formatting.  I will summarize the data in chart form, using less than all of your detail (which is appreciated!).

         
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    Posted: 11 April 2010 10:19 PM #3

    Pats, mine have been ready for a few days, but when I publish tomorrow or Tuesday you’ll think I’ve copied from you…

         
  • Posted: 11 April 2010 10:35 PM #4

    Pats, why don’t desktop and portables add up to total CPU units?

         
  • Posted: 11 April 2010 10:41 PM #5

    pats, you and I are almost identical on Mac unit sales but I’m a bit higher on iPhone units. At this point you and I are about $300 million apart on revenue. Reading your numbers I think I’m in good company.  grin

         
  • Posted: 12 April 2010 12:36 AM #6

    capablanca - 12 April 2010 01:35 AM

    Pats, why don’t desktop and portables add up to total CPU units?

    Totaling the two unit numbers (portable and desktop) arrives at 3.079 million units versus your total of 2.991 million.

         
  • Posted: 12 April 2010 02:50 AM #7

    I’ll be posting my numbers as early as Tuesday night. The delay certainly isn’t due to an expansive staff compiling channel checks or counting Apple store foot traffic but a few last minute personal checks on expense ratios and trends.

    In all this may be Apple’s second best fiscal quarter in history. For that to occur in FQ2 is an impressive outcome for the quarter.

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2010 04:03 AM #8

    A $12+ billion Q2 ‘10 (current “second best” revs are $11.8 bil IIRC) would be a statement-maker for Apple.  It would certainly lend credence to SJ’s somewhat prematurely calling Apple a $50 billion company (of course it was just a expression of run rate, but run rates are hardly guaranteed).

    Of course, Apple believes it has what it takes to meet or exceed that revenue “goal”, and I bet most of us here at AFB feel the same ($60 billion is possible with a little help from iPad), but Wall Street needs the hard numbers, being the eternal AAPL skeptics they largely are.

    [ Edited: 12 April 2010 04:05 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Teamâ„¢
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2010 04:17 AM #9

    REVENUES ($M)   $12,296 
    Desktops         
    $1,304 
    Notebooks        
    $2,389 
    Tot
    CPUs        $3,693   +25%
    iPods            $1,559    -6%
    iPhone           $4,751   +96%
    Other Music      $1,208 
    P
    &H                $433 
    Soft
    Ser Other  $652 
        
    Unit Sales 
    (000's)     
    Desktops      1,020 
    Notebooks     1,772 
    Tot. CPUs     2,793  +26% 
    iPods        10,415   -5%
    iPhone        7,500  +98% 
         
    Average Prices     
    Desktop   $1,278 
    Laptop    $1,348 
    CPU       $1,323 
    iPod       $150 
    iPhone     $633 
        
    Cost of Sales  $7,331 
    MARGIN RATIO      40.4% 
    Gross Margin   $4,965 
        
    Operating Expenses     
    R&D      $418 
    SG&A   $1,146 
    Total  $1,563 
        
    Operating Income      $3,401 
        
    Other Income & Expense   $39 
        
    Income before taxes   $3,440 
    Tax Rate                 30.6% 
    Taxes                 $1,051 
        
    REVENUES ($M)      $12,296 
    Net Income          $2,389 
    EARNINGS PER SHARE      $2.60  +45%
        
    Diluted Share Outstanding (M)      921 

    Signature

    Tightwad.

         
  • Posted: 12 April 2010 08:04 AM #10

    Mav - 12 April 2010 07:03 AM

    A $12+ billion Q2 ‘10 (current “second best” revs are $11.8 bil IIRC) would be a statement-maker for Apple.  It would certainly lend credence to SJ’s somewhat prematurely calling Apple a $50 billion company (of course it was just a expression of run rate, but run rates are hardly guaranteed).

    Of course, Apple believes it has what it takes to meet or exceed that revenue “goal”, and I bet most of us here at AFB feel the same ($60 billion is possible with a little help from iPad), but Wall Street needs the hard numbers, being the eternal AAPL skeptics they largely are.

    My total revenue numbers are a bit higher than both pats and awcabot (I’m coming in around $12.8 billion for the quarter). I’ve also been forecasting near $60 billion in revenue for the fiscal year. The Apple iPad could put revenue over the top.

    I first forecast a $60 billion revenue year in a January post at Eventide and reiterated that call in a February post.

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2010 09:17 AM #11

    capablanca - 12 April 2010 01:35 AM

    Pats, why don’t desktop and portables add up to total CPU units?

    I grab the number for desktop CPUs from Q1.  Fixed.  It would have been much easier to do a copy and paste, but I couldn’t figure out how to copy two separated columns in numbers since I have spent my life in excel. grin

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2010 09:30 AM #12

    pats says iphone sales at only 7 million ?    Could be, but….  http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/78403/

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2010 10:12 AM #13

    Tetrachloride - 12 April 2010 12:30 PM

    pats says iphone sales at only 7 million ?    Could be, but….  http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/78403/

    I guess I could go back and adjust for what we think we know based on SJ 50M statement, but since the quarter is already complete, I stuck with my old numbers.  The extra 500K units would move my EPS estimate to 2.85.

         
  • Posted: 12 April 2010 10:12 PM #14

    Just a reminder to watch this space tomorrow. IIRC Deagol said he’d post his estimates on Tuesday. I’ll be posting my estimates for the 2nd fiscal quarter late tomorrow night.

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2010 02:19 AM #15

    My numbers have just been posted. A detailed look at the numbers is available on my blog at Posts At Eventide.

    In a nutshell:

    I expect total revenue of just over $12.8 billion, operating income of about $3.645 billion, net income of about $2.586 billion and earnings per share of $2.80 based on 924 million diluted shares in the tally.

    [ Edited: 13 April 2010 02:22 AM by DawnTreader ]