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AAPL 2nd Fiscal Quarter - AFB Member Estimates
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
So far we have the Four Horsemen of the AFB* mounting up with estimates for Apple’s 2 fiscal quarter:
Mercel
DT
awcabot
patsLet’s get at it. I’ll have my estimates by midweek and will post my numbers at Eventide and in the AFB.
Let’s get started…
[ Edited: 12 April 2010 10:10 PM by DawnTreader ]
*Deagol is in a class all his own.
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First I will apologize for the lack of formatting and if anyone can give me a clue on exporting Numbers to HTML compatible format it would make this much easier. The numbers are purely for bragging rights and you should do your own due diligence. As I said in a previous post, I worry most if my numbers are below analysis consensus since the consensus number from the pro’s are what the market is using. Better to beat then get it perfect on the wrong side. :wink:
Data SummaryDesktops Units 1145
Desktops Revenue 1546
Portables Units 1845
Portables Revenue 2307
Subtotal CPU?s Units 2991
Subtotal CPU?s Revenue 3853
IPOD Units 11223
IPOD Revenue 1820
Other Music Related 1311
Iphone Units 7000
Iphone and Related Revenue 4410
Peripherals and Other Hardware 412
Software, Services and Other Sales 719
IPAD Units 0
IPAD Revenue 0
Total Apple 12524
Desktop ASP 1350
Portable ASP 1250
IPOD ASP 162
Iphone ASP 630
IPAD ASPNet Sales 12524
Cost of Sales 7515
Gross Margin 5010
GM % .40
R&D 350
SGA 1065
Operating Expense 1415
OI&E 45
Income Before taxes 3640
Income Tax 1092
Net Income 2548Diluted Shares 920
EPS 2.77
TTM 11.22PPS 280
[ Edited: 12 April 2010 09:15 AM by pats ] -
My #s are a work in progress, as I’m busy with April 15. Pats, don’t worry about the formatting. I will summarize the data in chart form, using less than all of your detail (which is appreciated!).
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Pats, mine have been ready for a few days, but when I publish tomorrow or Tuesday you’ll think I’ve copied from you…
Signature
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capablanca
- [ Ignore ]
Pats, why don’t desktop and portables add up to total CPU units?
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
pats, you and I are almost identical on Mac unit sales but I’m a bit higher on iPhone units. At this point you and I are about $300 million apart on revenue. Reading your numbers I think I’m in good company.
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
Pats, why don’t desktop and portables add up to total CPU units?
Totaling the two unit numbers (portable and desktop) arrives at 3.079 million units versus your total of 2.991 million.
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
I’ll be posting my numbers as early as Tuesday night. The delay certainly isn’t due to an expansive staff compiling channel checks or counting Apple store foot traffic but a few last minute personal checks on expense ratios and trends.
In all this may be Apple’s second best fiscal quarter in history. For that to occur in FQ2 is an impressive outcome for the quarter.
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A $12+ billion Q2 ‘10 (current “second best” revs are $11.8 bil IIRC) would be a statement-maker for Apple. It would certainly lend credence to SJ’s somewhat prematurely calling Apple a $50 billion company (of course it was just a expression of run rate, but run rates are hardly guaranteed).
Of course, Apple believes it has what it takes to meet or exceed that revenue “goal”, and I bet most of us here at AFB feel the same ($60 billion is possible with a little help from iPad), but Wall Street needs the hard numbers, being the eternal AAPL skeptics they largely are.
[ Edited: 12 April 2010 04:05 AM by Mav ]Signature
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
Thanks, Steve. -
REVENUES ($M) $12,296
Desktops $1,304
Notebooks $2,389
Tot. CPUs $3,693 +25%
iPods $1,559 -6%
iPhone $4,751 +96%
Other Music $1,208
P&H $433
Soft, Ser & Other $652
Unit Sales (000s)
Desktops 1,020
Notebooks 1,772
Tot. CPUs 2,793 +26%
iPods 10,415 -5%
iPhone 7,500 +98%
Average Prices
Desktop $1,278
Laptop $1,348
CPU $1,323
iPod $150
iPhone $633
Cost of Sales $7,331
MARGIN RATIO 40.4%
Gross Margin $4,965
Operating Expenses
R&D $418
SG&A $1,146
Total $1,563
Operating Income $3,401
Other Income & Expense $39
Income before taxes $3,440
Tax Rate 30.6%
Taxes $1,051
REVENUES ($M) $12,296
Net Income $2,389
EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.60 +45%
Diluted Share Outstanding (M) 921Signature
Tightwad.
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
A $12+ billion Q2 ‘10 (current “second best” revs are $11.8 bil IIRC) would be a statement-maker for Apple. It would certainly lend credence to SJ’s somewhat prematurely calling Apple a $50 billion company (of course it was just a expression of run rate, but run rates are hardly guaranteed).
Of course, Apple believes it has what it takes to meet or exceed that revenue “goal”, and I bet most of us here at AFB feel the same ($60 billion is possible with a little help from iPad), but Wall Street needs the hard numbers, being the eternal AAPL skeptics they largely are.
My total revenue numbers are a bit higher than both pats and awcabot (I’m coming in around $12.8 billion for the quarter). I’ve also been forecasting near $60 billion in revenue for the fiscal year. The Apple iPad could put revenue over the top.
I first forecast a $60 billion revenue year in a January post at Eventide and reiterated that call in a February post.
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Pats, why don’t desktop and portables add up to total CPU units?
I grab the number for desktop CPUs from Q1. Fixed. It would have been much easier to do a copy and paste, but I couldn’t figure out how to copy two separated columns in numbers since I have spent my life in excel.
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pats says iphone sales at only 7 million ? Could be, but…. http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/78403/
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pats says iphone sales at only 7 million ? Could be, but…. http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/78403/
I guess I could go back and adjust for what we think we know based on SJ 50M statement, but since the quarter is already complete, I stuck with my old numbers. The extra 500K units would move my EPS estimate to 2.85.
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
Just a reminder to watch this space tomorrow. IIRC Deagol said he’d post his estimates on Tuesday. I’ll be posting my estimates for the 2nd fiscal quarter late tomorrow night.
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
My numbers have just been posted. A detailed look at the numbers is available on my blog at Posts At Eventide.
In a nutshell:
I expect total revenue of just over $12.8 billion, operating income of about $3.645 billion, net income of about $2.586 billion and earnings per share of $2.80 based on 924 million diluted shares in the tally.
[ Edited: 13 April 2010 02:22 AM by DawnTreader ]
