Will Apple Make the top 5 in World Wide PC Shipments

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    Posted: 13 May 2010 10:09 AM

    Steve Jobs recently called Apple the largest mobile device company by revenue.  When this quarters global PC Shipments comes out it will be interesting to watch as the iPad should count in the total which moves Apple into the top 5 worldwide and top 3 in the US.  I’m sure the data aggregators like Gartner and IDC are busy trying to categorize the iPad not that it matters.

    1st Qtr 2010 #5 Tohiba shipped 4609K units worldwide
    1st Qtr 2010 # 3 Acer Group shipped 2298 in the US

    I’m estimating 6059K units worldwide which will move Apple comfortably into 5th World Wide and 3rd in the US.  Wonder how long before Microsoft’s Steve Balmer realizes that OS X is no longer a rounding error.

         
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    Posted: 13 May 2010 10:36 AM #1

    My initial guess is they will classify the iPad along with the iPod, and NOT include it with COMPUTERS.

    I could be wrong, but that is what might happen.

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  • Posted: 13 May 2010 12:33 PM #2

    TanToday - 13 May 2010 01:36 PM

    My initial guess is they will classify the iPad along with the iPod, and NOT include it with COMPUTERS.

    I could be wrong, but that is what might happen.

    They will classify it with the two other iPhone OS devices: iPhone and iPod Touch.

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    Posted: 13 May 2010 02:39 PM #3

    Garion - 13 May 2010 03:33 PM
    TanToday - 13 May 2010 01:36 PM

    My initial guess is they will classify the iPad along with the iPod, and NOT include it with COMPUTERS.

    I could be wrong, but that is what might happen.

    They will classify it with the two other iPhone OS devices: iPhone and iPod Touch.

    Actually most categorizations for outside Apple separate the iPhone and Ipod into the smart phone and MP3 category.  Why I find it worth discussion is the affect it will have on segment growth rates.  When the PC market included netbooks, it had the affect of lifting unit sales at the expense of margin.  The ASP for computers on the PC side have had a dramatic drop and Apple is perceived as only serving the high end market.  Apple has introduced the iPad which clearly provides the functionality that most people were looking for from a netbook.  If it is included as a PC then Apple’s sales will basically double and the ASP will trend down.

         
  • Posted: 13 May 2010 04:58 PM #4

    I’d be surprised if the iPad were classified as a PC for the purposes of reporting or comparing sales. It’s an iPhone OS-equipped device.

         
  • Posted: 13 May 2010 07:14 PM #5

    DawnTreader - 13 May 2010 07:58 PM

    I’d be surprised if the iPad were classified as a PC for the purposes of reporting or comparing sales. It’s an iPhone OS-equipped device.

    At the same time, pundits have pitted it against net books and have discussed its effects on net book sales. Far be it from me to suggest inconsistency, should they exclude the iPad from PC sales while allowing net books hosting any OS.

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  • Posted: 13 May 2010 08:17 PM #6

    wab95 - 13 May 2010 10:14 PM
    DawnTreader - 13 May 2010 07:58 PM

    I’d be surprised if the iPad were classified as a PC for the purposes of reporting or comparing sales. It’s an iPhone OS-equipped device.

    At the same time, pundits have pitted it against net books and have discussed its effects on net book sales. Far be it from me to suggest inconsistency, should they exclude the iPad from PC sales while allowing net books hosting any OS.

    Actually, one of the most confusing aspects of monitoring and forecasting PC industry growth is the inclusion of netbooks in the numbers. I think netbooks should be its own category of product. Growth in netbook sales has masked the deterioration of the PC industry’s economic relevance.

         
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    Posted: 13 May 2010 09:12 PM #7

    iPhone OS is more of a mobile-oriented OS, though.  I doubt iPad will be included as a “PC,” but at the same time, I doubt that Apple really cares.  Part of the iPad’s appeal is that it’s so unlike a PC, and is on a whole other level of ease-of-use.

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  • Posted: 13 May 2010 10:45 PM #8

    DawnTreader - 13 May 2010 11:17 PM
    wab95 - 13 May 2010 10:14 PM
    DawnTreader - 13 May 2010 07:58 PM

    I’d be surprised if the iPad were classified as a PC for the purposes of reporting or comparing sales. It’s an iPhone OS-equipped device.

    At the same time, pundits have pitted it against net books and have discussed its effects on net book sales. Far be it from me to suggest inconsistency, should they exclude the iPad from PC sales while allowing net books hosting any OS.

    Actually, one of the most confusing aspects of monitoring and forecasting PC industry growth is the inclusion of netbooks in the numbers. I think netbooks should be its own category of product. Growth in netbook sales has masked the deterioration of the PC industry’s economic relevance.

    Agree on the separate category for the netbooks. As you’ve inferred, what is needed is consistency across the industry so that we are comparing apples to Apples.

    Also, agree with Mav regarding iPad being so unlike a PC, which only further isolates the iPad from being compared to anything else including the netbooks, which in fact do behave like PCs, only very poor ones.

    The iPad will almost certainly not be listed among ‘PC’ sales. The industry has not yet figured out what it is.

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  • Posted: 13 May 2010 11:27 PM #9

    Mav - 14 May 2010 12:12 AM

    iPhone OS is more of a mobile-oriented OS, though.  I doubt iPad will be included as a “PC,” but at the same time, I doubt that Apple really cares.  Part of the iPad’s appeal is that it’s so unlike a PC, and is on a whole other level of ease-of-use.

    There’s no reason for Apple to care. It’s a disruptive product that is eroding the economic underpinnings of the PC industry and turning the high-margin software paradigm on its head.

         
  • Posted: 14 May 2010 12:07 AM #10

    PC category is no longer of interest to many people. PCs has become as common as your home refrigerator. No one really cares about its sales because it has become another boring commodity appliance.

    20 years ago, if you owned a laptop PC, it was uncommon and therefore interesting and sexy.
    Now… it is as common and boring as a kitchen toaster.

    The future and the new “Blue Ocean” category is PDD (Personal Digital Device).
    Apple started with the iPod and now evolved its way to the iPad…PDDs.

    Paraphrasing Steve Jobs, The PC is just becoming the central hub for organizing Digital Content.
    Since I got my iPad, I am beginning to use my PCs and laptops less and less for internet surfing.
    Once most of the websites become optimized for the iPad, I will infrequently use a PC for internet viewing and just stick with my iPad.

         
  • Posted: 14 May 2010 03:45 AM #11

    I think Apple is enjoying the sluggish and gullible conventional interpretations of its success. Everyone is fooled into evaluating four categories: music player, smartphone, touch tablet and PC. But for Apple and its competitors there is only one product, delivered at different sizes: the platform. The use of obsolete categories leads competitors to think Apple is a quarter of its actual size. Apple is uniting multiple markets, and the customers at least understand. Competitors, Gartner et al need to revise the industry model against which they measure.

    Because Gartner works for the old industry, I think they’ll put ipad in its own new category - if they don’t, the fact that it’s equidistant from several old categories demands that they all be merged into a single category. 

    And because of this, Apple will continue to be “misunderstood”.

    Now if we define a platform device as any device capable of displaying text and images, for which the user can select and install an open-ended collection of software applications, we can make a new “Gartner” report.

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2010 01:06 PM #12

    Apple will add some unit sales from a new MacBook that could premiere as early as next Tuesday.  Brought to you by the same finger-tapping-the-product guys who got their hands on the iPhone 4G this week.  If you watch the unpackaging video, you may laugh at the way he pushed the power cords and accessories away like it was extraneous junk.  See here.

         
  • Posted: 15 May 2010 01:41 PM #13

    artman1033 - 15 May 2010 04:19 PM
    Mercel - 15 May 2010 04:06 PM

    Apple will add some unit sales from a new MacBook that could premiere as early as next Tuesday.  Brought to you by the same finger-tapping-the-product guys who got their hands on the iPhone 4G this week.  If you watch the unpackaging video, you may laugh at the way he pushed the power cords and accessories away like it was extraneous junk.  See here.

    WITH ALL that hammering in the background in the video, Foxconn must be building a new plant in Vietnam.

    Or it could be Apple Legal knocking down the doors. 

    I’m surprised to see all the product leakage of late—the cone of silence needs a makeover.

         
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    Posted: 15 May 2010 05:01 PM #14

    Well, the bigger the company gets, the harder the secrecy game is to play.

    The iPhone prototype was just a freak accident, so I’m not counting that.  But you can bet that Apple is already investigating what’s going on with that Vietnamese news site.  Luckily for Apple, the MacBook isn’t nearly as popular as the iPhone units-wise.  And in a way, this isn’t really new since the, ahem, “premature specification” of the new models has always closely followed a Mac revision or redesign. 

    Of course, advance unboxing is a whole ‘nother level of info leak.

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    Posted: 18 May 2010 10:13 AM #15

    Barclay’s had a note out today

    We believe that the iPad is already cannibalizing the netbook market?and its impact is being felt several ways in terms of industry data - weaker than expected notebook orders out of Taiwan and within our in-store checks. We don?t believe that it is a coincidence that we are starting to see weaker sales growth of PC?s in the month of April in the US, which happens to be a month that Apple sold over 1 million iPads. We believe the iPad provides a superior internet and multimedia experience to a netbook. Also the ?instant on? and superior battery life make the product quite attractive. While early, we feel compelled to say it may not be a stretch to say that—as a result of the iPad—we wouldn?t be surprised if there was limited upside to our PC unit growth forecast of 21% for this year, which includes 34% growth in the notebook category and factors in sales of 38 million netbooks. We believe the impending success of the iPad played a major role in HP?s rationale in buying Palm since the WebOS can be used in upcoming tablet devices. Industry data is already showing a deceleration in HP?s notebook sales along those of Dell and Asus.

    Macs Grow 39% y/y in April According to NPD ? No Cannibalization from iPad Seen Yet: While the iPad may be cannibalizing netbook sales, it is not hurting Mac sales, which2. showed a strong rebound in April data and checks as a result of new products. Data and checks point toward modest cannibalziation of the iPod Touch product for Apple from the iPad, but the product itself seems largely incremental. NPD US data indicates that Mac units grew 39% y/y in April following +7% y/y in March and +43% y/y in February. The y/y acceleration is likely due to new MacBook Pro units launched on 4/13 (no new Macs were introduced in April 2009; Apple did launch new desktops in March 2009). Dollar sales for Macs were up 35% y/y in April vs. market growth of 21%. Apple held 16% unit share (+3pts y/y) and 29% value share (+2pts y/y) in April. We currently estimate Mac unit growth of 23% y/y for C2Q which could prove conservative. We believe April results for Apple are positive given the re-acceleration of Mac growth driven by new products.

    PC Industry Units Decelerate to 16% Y/Y Growth in April; iPads NOT Included: NPD US Data indicates that total PC unit sales grew 16% y/y in April (vs. +23% y/y in March and +33% y/y in February). We believe 16% y/y unit growth in April is likely about in- line with expectations, however we note that the PC data does NOT include any impact from Apple’s iPad unit shipments which would add about 1 million units in the month of April. If the 1 million in iPad units sold in the US in April were added to NPD?s total PC unit figure of about 2.1 million for April the y/y growth of the market would top 70%. Unit shipments in the “Subnotebook” category declined for the first time y/y as we believe the iPad is clearly cannibalizing the subnotebook market; subnotebook shipments totalled 255K (vs. 401K in March and 266K a year ago). The average ASP of “subnotebooks” was $384 in April vs. $368 in March and $360 in April 2009 (+7% y/y). Total PC ASPs were up 4% y/y (vs. -4% y/y in March) due to lower netbook sales. Total PC dollar sales grew 21% y/y in April vs. +18% y/y in March.

    iPod Units -17% Y/Y in April: NPD US Data indicates that iPod units declined 17% y/y in April following -3% y/y in March and +9% y/y in February. Note that iPad units are NOT accounted for in these numbers and cannibalization from iPads is likely having at least a modest impact on iPod sales. On a Total Retail only basis, NPD reported iPod sales were -22% y/y (vs. -3% y/y in March). iPod ASPs in April were up 17% y/y (+5% y/y last month), which we believe is due to a continued positive mix shift toward the iPod Touch overall. Apple held 78% unit share in April (+3pts y/y) and held 92% value share (+3pts y/y). Note that Apple has not had any new iPods since mid-September of 2009. We currently estimate iPod unit shipments -2% y/y for C2Q - which could be modestly aggressive given strong iPad demand (cannibalization factor).