AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 25 May 2010 12:14 PM #31

    Consumer confidence—in case you missed it—the highest in two years here.  In related news, stockholder confidence at AFB is sagging amidst Euro FUD and some short, paunchy guy with a pompadour.

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2010 12:18 PM #32

    Those of you assigned to the Korea side of the world, I alert you to the fact that the NK military is not doing anything unusual.  More details here

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2010 12:30 PM #33

    Mercel - 25 May 2010 03:14 PM

    Consumer confidence—in case you missed it—the highest in two years here.  In related news, stockholder confidence at AFB is sagging amidst Euro FUD and some short, paunchy guy with a pompadour.

    Mercel, for some reason, all of the good economic news from the US does not matter. The EURO itself is going to have an impact on the bottom line of many US companies, time will tell how much. The EURO is on its way to being even with the USD in my opinion. It is getting there faster than I thought possible. Currency is not suppose to move the way the EURO has. Kim-Jong is a thorn in the side of the world. You probably already know what I would do if it were up to me.  :-D I joined you in buying back in at 240. Feel very nervous about it and yes we may have more downside, but I have never been able to pick “the” bottom or “the” top.  I had sold half my AAPL position at 259, so I have a little downside protection. I have not turned bullish, but I am curious as to how the bailout money for Europe is in place and all of this is still happening. NK was just icing on the cake for the shorts.

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    Posted: 25 May 2010 12:37 PM #34

    I purchased more BAC under $15.00. The reason is that BAC has less than $2B Euro-zone exposure and is, as Bove said, “drowning in capital.” My thinking is that our big banks have been forced through TARP to cut their dividends which leaves billions of dollars laying around to reserve with, or, at some point in the future, to use for buybacks. In the bold new world we live in, T-bills can be used as reserve and so T-bill auctions have been getting bought up by our banks who are being or have been forced to increase reserves but who also want to realize a return on investment. Because our T-bills are getting bought by our banks, I believe we will continue to see low inflation and low interest rates.

    The problem is that with the credit card legislation banks are having a harder time managing their risk. With caps on interest, liabilities must be reeled in and I think we will continue to see credit limits cut as banks reduce their liabilities so as to manage their risk.

    So basically, we will get to a point were banks have ridiculous reserve levels build up (which some people point toward Citi as already being there) while people cannot get enough unsecured credit and while GovCo cannot get inflation to kick in so as to inflate out of the mess. I think at some point somebody will cry the emperor has no cloths and begin allowing our banks to act like banks. However, if they do not, BAC seems safe since it doesn’t need to issue a new loan to remain profitable and can even see 20% of its portfolio become non-performing and remain profitable?all while building its reserves.

    Since banks aren’t buying consumer debt and given my thesis that GovCo will always take the stupidest possible action and GovCo is legislating higher reserve requirements either directly or by proxy through unsecured credit laws, GovCo will need to use the GSEs more and more to buy debt. In this case, the GSEs will securitize the debt and likely will sell it back to the banks which, again, will probably count toward reserve requirements.

    While I already own enough GSEs to fit my risk profile, I’m happy to value shop our domestic banks that have little to zero exposure to foreign markets. Despite BAC topping Weiss’ latest troubled bank list (because of potential consumer defaults to its current reserve) I think GovCo needs BAC to continue to buy its debt because so far, GovCo has acted like a bunch of retards and so I’m banking on the fact that stupid tends to remain stupid and companies that are priced for failure but don’t fail explode to the upside once the street understands that failure has been avoided. My investment horizon is late 2012.

    Assuming that I’m not assigned and depending on how much I’ll need to spend hedging, I should be able to lower my cost average in 28 months of call-writing against my position.

    [ Edited: 25 May 2010 12:46 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2010 12:57 PM #35

    Eric, a little bear told me to write some calls yesterday, but I never got around to it. That would put me in the stupid camp. Its OK though, at least I know where my tent is and the fire is still smoldering. :bugeyed:

    BTW, towards the end of the day, if we are not going to close above 10k, I will sell today’s purchase and go back in my cave. :-(

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2010 01:00 PM #36

    mbeauch - 25 May 2010 03:30 PM
    Mercel - 25 May 2010 03:14 PM

    Consumer confidence—in case you missed it—the highest in two years here.  In related news, stockholder confidence at AFB is sagging amidst Euro FUD and some short, paunchy guy with a pompadour.

    Mercel, for some reason, all of the good economic news from the US does not matter. The EURO itself is going to have an impact on the bottom line of many US companies, time will tell how much. The EURO is on its way to being even with the USD in my opinion. It is getting there faster than I thought possible. Currency is not suppose to move the way the EURO has. Kim-Jong is a thorn in the side of the world. You probably already know what I would do if it were up to me.  :-D I joined you in buying back in at 240. Feel very nervous about it and yes we may have more downside, but I have never been able to pick “the” bottom or “the” top.  I had sold half my AAPL position at 259, so I have a little downside protection. I have not turned bullish, but I am curious as to how the bailout money for Europe is in place and all of this is still happening. NK was just icing on the cake for the shorts.

    Agreed that NK was a gift to the shorts.  And if it were not for the fact WWDC starts in 2 weeks, I may not have repurchased what I sold yesterday.  The EURO has its challenges, as I’m not convinced the sovereignty of nations can coexist with a common currency.  That jury is out and deliberating…and it won’t have a quick verdict.  With WWDC and Q3 earnings around the corner, I’m cautiously optimistic.  Like you, I’ll leave the perfect timing to the comedians.

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2010 01:35 PM #37

    mbeauch - 25 May 2010 03:57 PM

    Eric, a little bear told me to write some calls yesterday, but I never got around to it. That would put me in the stupid camp. Its OK though, at least I know where my tent is and the fire is still smoldering. :bugeyed:

    BTW, towards the end of the day, if we are not going to close above 10k, I will sell today’s purchase and go back in my cave. :-(

    FWIW, BAC’s latest 10Q, page 159, Table 41, total exposure to PIIGS is:

    Portugal - Total 731 million, Sovereign 33 million
    Ireland - Total 5.2 billion, Sovereign 401 million
    Italy - Total 9.6 billion, Sovereign 2.3 billion
    Greece - Total 1.3 billion, Sovereign 193 million
    Spain - Total 5.7 billion, Sovereign 122 million

    My thesis is that foreign GovCos will likely wind up backing their bank debts to avoid negative credit events that will wind up lowering their sovereign credit ratings. They may not be entirely successful but I expect them to try.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2010 01:46 PM #38

    Some good news actually from Europe:  Over 700 European lawmakers are eagerly awaiting delivery of their iPads.  Like kids in a toy store…I hope Apple didn’t extend any credit to them however.  See here

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2010 01:54 PM #39

    Bloomberg reports that Walmart has slashed the price on the iPhone to $97.00 in anticipation of dumping inventory.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2010 02:05 PM #40

    Eric Landstrom - 25 May 2010 04:54 PM

    Bloomberg reports that Walmart has slashed the price on the iPhone to $97.00 in anticipation of dumping inventory.

    If Walmart jumped ahead of what should have been an announcement at WWDC, I think Steve needs to coach Apple partners on the meaning of discretion.  A trip to the woodshed will win hearts and minds (and butts).

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2010 03:38 PM #41

    FWIW, AMZN is green.

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    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
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    Posted: 25 May 2010 03:47 PM #42

    Mercel - 25 May 2010 05:05 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 May 2010 04:54 PM

    Bloomberg reports that Walmart has slashed the price on the iPhone to $97.00 in anticipation of dumping inventory.

    If Walmart jumped ahead of what should have been an announcement at WWDC, I think Steve needs to coach Apple partners on the meaning of discretion.  A trip to the woodshed will win hearts and minds (and butts).

    We are talking Wal-Mart here. The biggest bully on the block. I am looking for an iphone announcement before WWDC.

    Mercel, you can not have a one world government without a single currency. The EURO was the start and as you see everyone is trying to save it. The writing on the wall looks like we fall till USD parity, dang bathroom stalls. :bugeyed:

    Message to Sponge, I played golf 3 times last week, first day good, second day very good, third day (it still stinks around here). LOL Back is fine and ready to stomp on a sponge. :-D

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2010 03:52 PM #43

    Mercel - 25 May 2010 05:05 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 May 2010 04:54 PM

    Bloomberg reports that Walmart has slashed the price on the iPhone to $97.00 in anticipation of dumping inventory.

    If Walmart jumped ahead of what should have been an announcement at WWDC, I think Steve needs to coach Apple partners on the meaning of discretion.  A trip to the woodshed will win hearts and minds (and butts).

    So it’s not looking good for those wishing to resell their 3Gs models on e-Bay when the new phones are released. Since I’m not eligible for the subsidized $199-299 price, it would cost me $499-599 to upgrade. May have to wait a year.

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2010 03:54 PM #44

    mbeauch - 25 May 2010 06:47 PM
    Mercel - 25 May 2010 05:05 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 25 May 2010 04:54 PM

    Bloomberg reports that Walmart has slashed the price on the iPhone to $97.00 in anticipation of dumping inventory.

    If Walmart jumped ahead of what should have been an announcement at WWDC, I think Steve needs to coach Apple partners on the meaning of discretion.  A trip to the woodshed will win hearts and minds (and butts).

    We are talking Wal-Mart here. The biggest bully on the block. I am looking for an iphone announcement before WWDC.

    Mercel, you can not have a one world government without a single currency. The EURO was the start and as you see everyone is trying to save it. The writing on the wall looks like we fall till USD parity, dang bathroom stalls. :bugeyed:

     

    My point was that I don’t see Europe consolidating itself in government terms. Short of that, a common currency probably fails.  Are you suggesting the EURO was the first step in One Europe?

         
  • Posted: 25 May 2010 03:55 PM #45

    We have a recovery under way here ladies.  $243…come on, let’s see some GREEN!