RIP Apple Death Knell ???

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    Posted: 26 May 2010 11:49 AM

    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell/

    I was surprised to see an episode of ADK in this Year of the iPad, 2010.  Unsurprisingly, from good old gloom and doomer John Dvorak.  Think Before You Click.  Still, its not a full-blown doom story. 

    So, could it be with Apple’s stupefying market cap and on a growth trend that it is curtains for Apple Death Knell ?

    :dunce:

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2010 01:31 PM #1

    I don’t know where else to put this and I don’t want to start a thread on it so I’ll just cheer up this gloomy Dvorak distopian view with today’s Trefis report

    We estimate that Apple?s iPhone business is valued at $130 billion.  In comparison, we estimate that RIM?s BlackBerry mobile phone business is valued at around $21 billion and Motorola?s mobile phone business is valued at only around $4.5 billion.

    Based on our estimates, Apple?s iPhone business is 6x more valuable than RIM?s BlackBerry mobile phones business and 30x more valuable than Motorola?s mobile phone business.  This valuation difference arises due to the difference in how market share, mobile phone pricing and gross profit margins for these businesses are expected to trend.

    ...


    Factoring in the pricing, market share and gross margins for all of these businesses over our forecast period, we calculate that the overall valuation ratios for mobile phone businesses of Apple, RIM and Motorola to be 30:5:1.

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  • Posted: 29 May 2010 03:17 PM #2

    Tetrachloride - 26 May 2010 02:49 PM

    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell/

    I was surprised to see an episode of ADK in this Year of the iPad, 2010.  Unsurprisingly, from good old gloom and doomer John Dvorak.  Think Before You Click.  Still, its not a full-blown doom story. 

    So, could it be with Apple’s stupefying market cap and on a growth trend that it is curtains for Apple Death Knell ?

    :dunce:

    Dvorak has made a career out of being a clown in the computer industry.  He’s funnier than Ballmer, who is one tough act to follow.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2010 03:51 PM #3

    artman1033 - 29 May 2010 06:46 PM

    But HERE they have a gross profit margin on the iPad as 54%. That is insane.

    Sorry I did not want to steal this thread.

    small correction, iPhone, not iPad. //end stolen thread

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    Posted: 29 May 2010 05:41 PM #4

    artman1033 - 29 May 2010 07:49 PM

    I was talking about the iPad. If he is that far off on the iPad, his other WAGs are questionable.

    Since this thread is otherwise quiet… I don’t want to defend Trefis, they’re just another source… but standing in the pre-opening queue in London waiting to buy my iPad yesterday at launch the conversation that most intrigued me was which iPad people were buying. I know the tear down sites have priced iPad parts and manufacturing costs at about $260 for the 16gb wifi model. I haven’t seen the added costs for memory upgrades or 3g but based on the few people around me and my brief chat with the Apple chappie who was delegated to me for my iPad buying experience, the demand seemed to be evenly split for 32 gig 3g models and 64 bit 3g models. I haven’t seen any breakdowns on a scale large enough to be significant but as the base price of 16gb wifi model in the uk is ?425 and 64gig 3g model is ?699… there is room to play in there. The other possible factor is that us “foreigners” tend to pay more per unit Apple product than the exchange rate would dictate and Apple’s non-USA sales are growing by the day. You may be totally right that their assumptions are way of base.

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