AAPL 12-Month Price Forecasts

  • Posted: 27 May 2010 11:50 PM

    Let’s have some fun:

    I posted an updated 12-month price forecast for AAPL back in late April. Let’s go around the table for views on where AAPL will land 12 months from today. I will be revising my price forecasts as information on June quarter Mac, iPhone and iPad sales become available.

    Where do you see AAPL trading one year from today?

    It’s no secret my price range forecast begins at over $400 per share.

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 01:25 AM #1

    C’mon folks. Ante up to the bar.  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 02:09 AM #2

    $375- $425
    If the the S&P is over 1200… $425
    If the the S&P is under 1200… $375
    If I have to pick one number… $400

    If the S&P is under 1,000, all bets are off.

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  • Posted: 28 May 2010 03:02 AM #3

    jeffi - 28 May 2010 05:09 AM

    $375- $425
    If the the S&P is over 1200… $425
    If the the S&P is under 1200… $375
    If I have to pick one number… $400

    If the S&P is under 1,000, all bets are off.

    Jeffi:

    Not bad!

    Everybody else: Only the “Google guy” is willing to put numbers on the table?  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 01:28 PM #4

    Let’s go, everybody!

    The math should be pretty easy!  LOL

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 01:35 PM #5

    My WAG is $360.  Not that I don’t think aapl will not be worth substantially more its just has been such a rare occasion that I have seen the market place a “fair” valuation on Apple.  I don’t expect them to “get it” anytime soon, if I am wrong to the upside it bodes well for my retirement plans grin

         
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    Posted: 28 May 2010 02:04 PM #6

    With the market and AAPL acting the way it is, I wouldn’t even fathom a guess as to where it will be next week!

    What the hell ... my WAG is $390

    Edit:  Adding a calender reminder for 5/28/11 to revisit this thread.

    [ Edited: 28 May 2010 02:06 PM by incorrigible ]

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    Posted: 28 May 2010 02:39 PM #7

    Let’s say TTM EPS of $18 X 20 P/E = $360

    I’d prefer to be surprised to the upside…

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 02:47 PM #8

    Ok, I’ll belly up to the bar:  $380 - $440, assuming P/E’s hold current levels, the riskiest part of any estimate.

    [ Edited: 28 May 2010 02:49 PM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 05:49 PM #9

    I want the Jan 14, 2011 closing price target smile

         
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    Posted: 28 May 2010 05:58 PM #10

    roni - 28 May 2010 08:49 PM

    I want the Jan 14, 2011 closing price target smile

    This LOL and closing price of Jan 21, 2012.  These price targets are worthwhile e.g. if we know AAPL is to close at $360 on Jan 14, 2011, I can make tons of money by longing butterfly (Jan 11) $360 for 45 cents, 1 for 20 :-D.  Can also open this position if we are very sure AAPL would be above $360 any time before Jan 14, 2011.  Return is still good just not obscenely good.

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    Posted: 28 May 2010 06:38 PM #11

    Mace - 28 May 2010 08:58 PM
    roni - 28 May 2010 08:49 PM

    I want the Jan 14, 2011 closing price target smile

    This LOL and closing price of Jan 21, 2012.  These price targets are worthwhile e.g. if we know AAPL is to close at $360 on Jan 14, 2011, I can make tons of money by longing butterfly (Jan 11) $360 for 45 cents, 1 for 20 :-D.  Can also open this position if we are very sure AAPL would be above $360 any time before Jan 14, 2011.  Return is still good just not obscenely good.

    I would say $ 360 is a reasonable bet, but you won’t have any real sales data by the 14th of Jan for Christmas season sales so you will have to hope prices run up based on the rumor.  If you see good Mac/iPhone/iPad sales this quarter, I would be much stronger in my conviction, we pretty much can guess what iPhone will do next quarter based on the new release it will be supply constrained into Christmas.  iPad is still rolling out so if we believe Apple is ramping to 2.5M per month that crushes every single estimate that I’ve seen.  For Mac we will have our first look to see if the iPad is cannibalizing the Mac.  If we are still holding 30% plus growth it would be safe to say with the economy improving we should be able to continue the trend.

    I charge 50% of the profit for the advice, but won’t cover the loss :-D

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 10:01 PM #12

    I have seen a lot of these threads on this board. I read the negative Apple articles because there may be some truth to them. The only exception was an entire article on greasy smears on the iPad and how serious it is. I can’t trust Gene Munster either because whenever I look back at his estimates, he is wrong. The only thing that he is right about is AAPL going up. I hope this board isn’t blinded by rose colored glasses also.

    The problem isn’t growth or innovation and I disagree with Mark Hubert’s recent article about historical statistics because there is only one tech company, MSFT. You can’t compare MSFT to AAPL because MSFT has no growth. As AAPL gets a bigger and bigger market cap, there is a limit because there is only so much money in the stock market. Either AAPL needs to take money away from other public companies or the money needs to come in from outside the US. I expect the PE to go down but I just want it to go down slowly. I don’t think AAPL will ever go beyond 30 pe again unfortunately. I think I am the only one to talk about multiple contractions also a year ago.

    If AAPL breaks the flash crash low, then the mid $300 looks right for a year target. If this is just a correction and everything calms down then the mid $400 looks about right purely from looking at the charts. I need to do more research the economy and what I was talking about to even try to make a fundamental guess.

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 11:55 PM #13

    Mercel - 28 May 2010 05:47 PM

    Ok, I’ll belly up to the bar:  $380 - $440, assuming P/E’s hold current levels, the riskiest part of any estimate.

    I like the top end of your forecast.  grin

    I suspect the p/e will hold near current levels but the share price will scale to the rise in earnings.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2010 01:22 AM #14

    anthonytsai - 29 May 2010 01:01 AM

    I have seen a lot of these threads on this board. I read the negative Apple articles because there may be some truth to them. The only exception was an entire article on greasy smears on the iPad and how serious it is. I can’t trust Gene Munster either because whenever I look back at his estimates, he is wrong. The only thing that he is right about is AAPL going up. I hope this board isn’t blinded by rose colored glasses also.

    The problem isn’t growth or innovation and I disagree with Mark Hubert’s recent article about historical statistics because there is only one tech company, MSFT. You can’t compare MSFT to AAPL because MSFT has no growth. As AAPL gets a bigger and bigger market cap, there is a limit because there is only so much money in the stock market. Either AAPL needs to take money away from other public companies or the money needs to come in from outside the US. I expect the PE to go down but I just want it to go down slowly. I don’t think AAPL will ever go beyond 30 pe again unfortunately. I think I am the only one to talk about multiple contractions also a year ago.

    If AAPL breaks the flash crash low, then the mid $300 looks right for a year target. If this is just a correction and everything calms down then the mid $400 looks about right purely from looking at the charts. I need to do more research the economy and what I was talking about to even try to make a fundamental guess.

    Not even close Anthony, I have been talking about the P/E contracting for years. DT’s forecast even show a lowered P/E. The large number issues are the biggest restriction on the share price. Many here think AAPL should have a P/E over 30 right now, I know I would be selling. I have gone on record since December of 07 first stating that AAPL would never see a 50 p/e, then again for 40 and 30. Sometime next year the 20’s will be history. It is always typical, when someone owns something , they always think it is worth more than what someone is willing to pay. Anthony, this forum had many believing that AAPL was recession proof, cost a lot of people their entire portfolio’s. Today was an anomaly, we don’t have to many good up days when the DOW is down 120. I am not a believer in AAPL 400 any time in the foreseeable future. I can see a price up to around 360, then 2 years of up and down. JMO :apple:

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  • Posted: 29 May 2010 02:30 AM #15

    mbeauch - 29 May 2010 04:22 AM

    Not even close Anthony, I have been talking about the P/E contracting for years. DT’s forecast even show a lowered P/E. The large number issues are the biggest restriction on the share price. Many here think AAPL should have a P/E over 30 right now, I know I would be selling. I have gone on record since December of 07 first stating that AAPL would never see a 50 p/e, then again for 40 and 30. Sometime next year the 20’s will be history. It is always typical, when someone owns something , they always think it is worth more than what someone is willing to pay. Anthony, this forum had many believing that AAPL was recession proof, cost a lot of people their entire portfolio’s. Today was an anomaly, we don’t have to many good up days when the DOW is down 120. I am not a believer in AAPL 400 any time in the foreseeable future. I can see a price up to around 360, then 2 years of up and down. JMO :apple:

    I use a p/e of 25 times anticipated 12-month earnings as the upper limit in my forecasts. I agree. Apple will not see a p/e of 30 (at least not sustained) let alone anywhere near 40 or 50. There are a number of reasons for this limit. When one considers the impact of compounding in this fiscal year’s anticipated growth and the anticipated growth in the first and second fiscal quarters of next year, pushing the p/e above 25 times anticipated results would push forecasts into a near phantasmagorical range. I won’t go there.

    It’s not that Apple will stop growing or even nominal growth will necessarily slow over the next few years, but the pace of growth relative to the most immediate prior-year periods will undoubtedly slow as we move two years out from today. To expect otherwise is imprudent.

    I suggest Apple can sustain 25%+ eps growth on average for the foreseeable future. But the market will demand at least a slight discount for risk.

    I do believe Apple will break through $400 per share by this time next year due to current rates of revenue and earnings growth while the p/e multiple to 12-month earnings remains moderate. Apple achieved 63% eps growth in the first six months of this fiscal year. The rate of eps growth should accelerate for the balance of this fiscal year and continue at an impressive pace for the first six months of FY 2011.

    Forecasting a future price range requires development of assumptions on future growth potential. Again, Apple will continue to grow and for at least the next four quarters the company will grow revenue and earnings at an extraordinary fast pace. But I do not expect 60%+ eps growth to continue beyond the next four quarters even though the underlying earnings continue to grow and eps continues to expand.