GOOG

  • Posted: 28 May 2010 03:06 AM

    If Android is so big, why is GOOG trading sub-$500?

    Jeffi, I’d appreciate your view.

    Personally, I do think the shares are oversold.

         
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    Posted: 28 May 2010 03:36 AM #1

    No comment from fundamental perspective since I’ve not done any due diligence at all.  From TA perspective, please refer to this weekly chart.  13-week EMA about to cross below 52-week EMA, MACD below signal and zero lines, and ADX is trending up while -DI is above +DI.  Very bearish picture.

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    Posted: 28 May 2010 09:12 AM #2

    DawnTreader - 28 May 2010 06:06 AM

    If Android is so big, why is GOOG trading sub-$500?

    Jeffi, I’d appreciate your view.

    Personally, I do think the shares are oversold.

    DT here is a model used by Trefis .

    As far as Android, I would expect them to attempt to monetize via the AdMobile mobile ad network, since Advertising is their main business.  The jury is still out IMO on their success in this effort.  I’m also interested in Jeffi’s view as I don’t spend as much time following Google as I should as a shareholder.

         
  • Posted: 28 May 2010 09:43 AM #3

    DawnTreader - 28 May 2010 06:06 AM

    If Android is so big, why is GOOG trading sub-$500?

    Android hasn’t generated a dime of revenue (loosely speaking) with considerable investment and expenses.

    I think investors want to see all these pet projects pay off. Only revenue driver is search. Granted, all these adjunct endeavors help its search ecosystem, but the extent is hard to quantify.

    I don’t think it’s clear exactly how mobile advertising will evolve. Currently there isn’t much there. I am not too impressed with AdMob. I think something like Siri is the wave of the future.

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  • Posted: 28 May 2010 11:14 AM #4

    turleymuller - 28 May 2010 12:43 PM

    I think something like Siri is the wave of the future.

    You, too.  grin

         
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    Posted: 28 May 2010 11:38 AM #5

    DawnTreader - 28 May 2010 06:06 AM

    If Android is so big, why is GOOG trading sub-$500?

    Jeffi, I’d appreciate your view.

    Personally, I do think the shares are oversold.

    Come on, it is ANY WONDER AT ALL that a TOTALLY FREE product can move a lot of units?

    After all, GOOGLE is taking a huge stupid risk here. Providing FREE in the hopes of staying relevant. My guess is that they will have a HUGE HUGE market out there, and NEGATIVE INCOME from it, since they had the search already before, and that just stays the same, but now, with everyone aware of the implications of AD CLICK revenue, I expect the handset makers will attempt to somehow demand a larger share in return for allowing GOOGLE on their machines, ANDROID or not.

    Another thing, SERIOUSLY, who in their right minds would trust GOOGLE to store your documents in the cloud? They are there for ANY lawsuit against you, your ex wife, the IRS, and any lawyer on a fishing expedition with a supeana in hand, they WILL and MUST turn over all your personal information. They are tracking you wherever you go, keeping records of every site you visit, and right now, SCHMIDT is in bed with the BILDER~A-BETTER-BURGERS shadow government group, that starts in Spain in a week, building a NWO where everyone is tracked and logged BIG BROTHER STYLE all day long, every day of the week.

    What AAPL needs to do, is start a new campaign simular to the PC vs MAC where they effectively neutered VISTA and hammer home that the REAL 1984 BIG BROTHER is Google, who sucks up everything from everyone, and monetizes your PRIVACY for their massive profits.

    I wouldn’t trust them with my dog for the afternoon.

    [ Edited: 28 May 2010 11:40 AM by TanToday ]

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  • Posted: 29 May 2010 06:08 PM #6

    Tan- I agree. This privacy could really backfire on Google. Just look what is happening in Europe. Basically pretty much everything Google offers is in some degree spyware, at least in the sense to improve its search and ad delivery algorithms.

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  • Posted: 29 May 2010 10:19 PM #7

    TanToday - 28 May 2010 02:38 PM

    What AAPL needs to do, is start a new campaign simular to the PC vs MAC where they effectively neutered VISTA and hammer home that the REAL 1984 BIG BROTHER is Google, who sucks up everything from everyone, and monetizes your PRIVACY for their massive profits.

    I wouldn’t trust them with my dog for the afternoon.

    I didn’t know you had a dog.  LOL

    Seriously. There’s a role here for the Behemoth near Bothell. It’s time for Microsoft to come out swinging. What’s at stake for MSFT is far greater than what’s at stake for Apple.

    The Get A Mac ads worked because Vista was a spectacular disaster. I think it’s no coincidence the campaign is ending after Windows 7 has been in release.

    Google’s issues are more subtle in terms of public understanding and in some respects Google’s latest salvos at Apple are a mirror image of what the company might see about itself.

         
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    Posted: 29 May 2010 11:32 PM #8

    Microsoft certainly has a lot to lose.  I’ve been curious about the corporate inefficiency.  Certain departments of theirs have a lot of dead weight, I am guessing.

         
  • Posted: 31 May 2010 12:34 PM #9

    A look at fundamentals:

    http://blog.ycharts.com/post/637614396/google-growth-or-value-stock

    Conclusion
    Google continues to dominate search and this is unlikely to change in the next several years.  Revenue is growing moderately with strong margins and a reasonable multiple on earnings.  Keep an eye on query volumes as this is the key for the company until they figure out how to diversify revenues.  The company hasn?t announced anything that will really move the needle but the core business remains strong.  In our opinion, Google is no longer a growth stock but looks like a good value.

    (emphasis was mine)

    No longer a growth stock? I don’t know about that…

         
  • Posted: 31 May 2010 12:55 PM #10

    DawnTreader - 28 May 2010 06:06 AM

    If Android is so big, why is GOOG trading sub-$500?

    Jeffi, I’d appreciate your view.

    Personally, I do think the shares are oversold.

    Stock prices bounce around in the short term, trading off of emotions. I could give an almost limitless number of examples of stocks that have declined sharply before having long runs upward. In other words, it just noise in addition to the global macro issues that have reduced all equity prices.

    I prefer buying on weakness, knowing that in the long run stocks gravitate to their true value.

    In other words, if I’m right about the fundamentals, it’s just a buying opportunity.

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