Q3 Iphone Numbers

  • Posted: 08 June 2010 11:45 AM

    Now that we know the launch date, june 24, and the news that subscribers with contracts ending in 2010 will be able to upgrade early, lets hear some prediction for iphone sales for this this quarter. Also forgot to mention the 5 country launch.

    I think the analysts do not understand the upgrade cycle of the iphone and still think of the iphone as a computer. Cell phone users are used to paying 100-200 every 1-2 years to upgrade their phone. They are not waiting the 3-4 years that computer buyers wait to upgrade. Anecdotally I have many friends who are waiting to upgrade for different reasons, cracked phone, “coolness factor” or usual wear and tear of using a phone. Many friends sell their phone on ebay for almost the same price they payed for it and then upgrade.

    June 24 is an interesting date, as it will provide a modest boost to Q3 sales but with the international debut through september will make Q4 a record breaking quarter.

    Ill set my prediction at 9.5 million units for Q3. Not sure about Q4.

         
  • Posted: 08 June 2010 01:17 PM #1

    The quarter ends on 6/26 so we get 3 days of sales of iPhone 4 included.  I have a feeling that just like the iPad right now, it will be a question of calculating supply, not demand.  I could see sales for this quarter coming it at 9M with 3M of those being iPhone 4s.  I’m sure they can sell 3M of the new phones in the first weekend, the only question is whether they’ll have made that many by then.

         
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    Posted: 09 June 2010 07:19 AM #2

    I penciled in 8 million but it could range to 9 easily. Keep in mind that anything over 8.75 would be a new quarterly record.

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  • Posted: 09 June 2010 07:31 AM #3

    Let’s not forget the accelerated worldwide rollout, that may bump it up a half million or so.

         
  • Posted: 09 June 2010 08:29 AM #4

    The only thing that worries me about Q3 is the potential for people to place their iPhone buying decisions on hold until the iPhone4 was released (given the pretty much universal (USA especially) coverage of the new iPhone). I think at the start of Q3, buying will have been strong but I suspect sales will have softened slightly and pretty much stopped at present in anticipation of the iPhone4 being released.  However, all this will do is defer the sales into Q4 of the new iPhone4.  I expect Q4 to be huge, so long as supply can keep up with demand…

    This must surely be playing havoc with DT et al’s models re iPhone sales in the current quarter?!

         
  • Posted: 10 June 2010 06:37 AM #5

    JonathanU - 09 June 2010 11:29 AM

    The only thing that worries me about Q3 is the potential for people to place their iPhone buying decisions on hold until the iPhone4 was released (given the pretty much universal (USA especially) coverage of the new iPhone). I think at the start of Q3, buying will have been strong but I suspect sales will have softened slightly and pretty much stopped at present in anticipation of the iPhone4 being released.  However, all this will do is defer the sales into Q4 of the new iPhone4.  I expect Q4 to be huge, so long as supply can keep up with demand…

    This must surely be playing havoc with DT et al’s models re iPhone sales in the current quarter?!

    From the numbers I have received, it appears May outsold April, on a sell-thru basis. 8GB 3G sales in May were way way down, to be expected. But, shipments or Apple’s sales were likely zero on that product and quite lower on 3GS than sell-thru from channel destocking. Certainly folks are holding back, but probably didn’t really impact until late last month, early this month—and certainly after the announcement.  So, I think the key factor is shipments slowing to allow carriers to work off inventory.


    I question how many Apple can sell in 3 days, pre-orders starting the 15th will help but then it becomes a question of how many Apple can make and have available to ship. I am thinking iPhone unit sales could come in low to expectations, but will be explosive in Q4 and beyond.

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    Posted: 11 June 2010 10:28 AM #6

    Some supplier info via Digitimes

    Asia Optical began to deliver VGA lens kits for the iPhone 4 in May 2010, with a monthly shipment volume of three million units currently, according to company chairman Robert Lai.

    If we factor in the sales of the 3GS in addition to the Iphone 4, Apple is preparing suppliers for significant YOY growth.

         
  • Posted: 11 June 2010 01:14 PM #7

    I’m not sure why, but used 3GS 16GB iPhones are going for about $300 on Ebay. I assume they’re being shipped to other countries as they will be available here for much less then that two weeks. Assuming the used price holds up, why wouldn’t every 3GS owner who qualifies for a subsidized 4G iPhone buy one? Other then having to sign a new two year contract with AT&T there needn’t be any out of pocket cost.

         
  • Posted: 11 June 2010 01:42 PM #8

    I though WalMart were selling them for $97 these days.

    Walmart announced on Tuesday that it had dropped the price of the iPhone 3GS 16GB to $97, the lowest price on the handset ever in the United States. The 32GB variant of the iPhone 3GS, however, remains at its previous price of $297 on Walmart.

    [ Edited: 11 June 2010 01:45 PM by John Molloy ]

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  • Posted: 11 June 2010 01:46 PM #9

    That’s what I thought also. Maybe there’s a limit to how many you can buy and there’s a demand in India and China for used ones. I can’t figure out any other explanation for the premium.

         
  • Posted: 11 June 2010 03:44 PM #10

    joel90069 - 11 June 2010 04:14 PM

    I’m not sure why, but used 3GS 16GB iPhones are going for about $300 on Ebay. I assume they’re being shipped to other countries as they will be available here for much less then that two weeks. Assuming the used price holds up, why wouldn’t every 3GS owner who qualifies for a subsidized 4G iPhone buy one? Other then having to sign a new two year contract with AT&T there needn’t be any out of pocket cost.

    Since my iPhone 3GS is my only phone, I was thinking that if I wanted to sell it I would have to wait until I knew my new phone was being shipped before offering it on eBay. A lot of current owners are in my boat.

    I then assumed by that time the 16G version I have wouldn’t fetch such a high eBay price. Still it might bring a higher price than a new $99 model. Of course by the time the iPhone 4 is shipping there will be millions (no exaggeration ) of 3GS models looking for new owners.

    EDIT: A quick check at eBay seems to show that the higher bids for 16G models (and Buy It Now prices) are for unlocked phones and jailbroken phones. This suggests buyers are wanting to ship overseas, where the new models wont be available for a while.

    [ Edited: 11 June 2010 03:51 PM by willrob ]      
  • Posted: 11 June 2010 04:07 PM #11

    I was looking at some of the 3GS 16G iPhones at auction at eBay and while I was reading the info on one (which had been bid up to $422), the auction closed when someone bid $600. This of course was for a jailbroken and unlocked phone. The unlocking process seems to be worth $200 more bid price.

         
  • Posted: 11 June 2010 04:55 PM #12

    willrob - 11 June 2010 07:07 PM

    I was looking at some of the 3GS 16G iPhones at auction at eBay and while I was reading the info on one (which had been bid up to $422), the auction closed when someone bid $600. This of course was for a jailbroken and unlocked phone. The unlocking process seems to be worth $200 more bid price.

    Some of those phones actually ship unlocked from Apple to various carriers/resellers where they get bought and put on eBay to be sold into markets where iPhones are locked only.

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  • Posted: 11 June 2010 11:33 PM #13

    From what I can find, the 3.1.3 firmware my phone has hasn’t been “unlocked” yet. It can be jailbroken however. Closer looks at some of the $400+ sales show they are unlocked using the 3.1.2 firmware. Some of the high prices are for New phones, and some are used phones.

    I have seen commercial software ($29) that claims to be able to unlock and jailbreak the 3.1.3 firmware.

    I need to do more homework.

         
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    Posted: 12 June 2010 12:57 AM #14

    Well mine will go toward the next qtr. The GF told me tonight see wants to get me the Iphone4 for my B-day. :-D She made me promise I will not buy one before.  :-(  BD-July 26 so I have a month to go to the AT&T store and stare at one. :bugeyed:  Since I am a version 1, this is going to be a big leap for me, now I gotta sleep with AT&T for 2 more years. :-(

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  • Posted: 12 June 2010 01:30 AM #15

    willrob - 12 June 2010 02:33 AM

    From what I can find, the 3.1.3 firmware my phone has hasn’t been “unlocked” yet. It can be jailbroken however. Closer looks at some of the $400+ sales show they are unlocked using the 3.1.2 firmware. Some of the high prices are for New phones, and some are used phones.

    I have seen commercial software ($29) that claims to be able to unlock and jailbreak the 3.1.3 firmware.

    I need to do more homework.

    Yeah couple months ago I remember seeing 3.1.2 being the big selling proposition, due to no unlock for 3.1.3. That made me think- there could be a business in buying up iPhones soon as unlock is available, then sit on them until a OS update,  (since new phones will be locked until unlock discovered)  Depending how long that takes, supply of unlocked phones could dry up. IF you had some 3.1.2 set back then could sell for much much higher.

    That could be the case now- no real effort to unlock 3.1.3 since everyone Knew OS4 was coming soon, and the 1.3 updated wasn’t material, thus people with already unlocked iPhones just don’t update to 1.3.

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