Q3 iOS shipments

  • Posted: 13 June 2010 12:24 PM

    Maybe we can consolidate some of these threads about iPad and iPhone shipments here and add iPod Touch to the mix

    Here is something I posted elsewhere

    iPad:

    So here are some thoughts informed largely by anecdotal reports by Turley Miller and others on TMO and unsubstantiated reports in Digitimes a little while back; and by a press release from the mothership - two million sold - Apple put out a press release announcing that on May 31

    There was a report in Digitimes that iPad production would ramp to 2.5 million units a month in the September quarter - but of course did not say when in the September quarter.

    I think it is reasonable to expect somewhere betwixt 3 and 3.5 million iPads shipped in this quarter.  I do not expect much in the way of downside to the lower number and the possibility of a some (but not huge) upside to the higher number.  Is that rock solid?  I think it is reasonable.


    iPhone


    Here the crystal ball gets a little cloudy.  The smartphone market is in a big growth phase (and will continue in that phase for another few years, I think).  Apple and Android will continue to take share from RIMM, Nokia and Windows.  Who knows how HP will do with Palm?  I don’t.

    I think the iPhone could have another record quarter and I think we need to get used to that.  Whiles sales of the 3 GS should soften in June, we have the $97 ones at WalMart, don’t we?

    My reading leads me to believe there will be adequate supply to meet iPhone 4 demand during the last three days of this quarters, which in my meager thoughts could/should make up for any softening of demand in June.

    I am still unsure of total number of iPhones in this quarter, but am thinking Apple will ship between 8 and 10 million.  That is a wide range, so let me put my guesstimate smack dab in the middle of it, 9 million.


    iPod Touch


    Who knows.  Some cannibalization via iPad, Apple ain’t gonna tell us anyway.  I say enough to take total iOS shipments to over 20 million units - that would take about 7.5 million units unless there is upside on the other two iOS devices.


    Total iOS Devices

    That could be too aggressive smile but there is the back to school promotion, so I will say shipments of iOS devices approaching 20 million units in the current quarter.

         
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    Posted: 13 June 2010 02:31 PM #1

    I’m more pessimistic on the iPhone and iPad numbers by about 8 % each.

         
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    Posted: 13 June 2010 02:31 PM #2

    SJ announce 85M on the 8th of April and said over a 100m this quarter at the WWDC so I think 20M is an aggressive target.  I’m modeling 3.5M iPad, 9.1M iPhone, and 4.0M iTouch

         
  • Posted: 13 June 2010 02:45 PM #3

    pats - 13 June 2010 05:31 PM

    SJ announce 85M on the 8th of April and said over a 100m this quarter at the WWDC so I think 20M is an aggressive target.  I’m modeling 3.5M iPad, 9.1M iPhone, and 4.0M iTouch

    It is aggressive on the Touch number, you are absolutely right.  I was pleased to see you close to my iPad and iPhone guesstimates.

    What are your thoughts on the possibility of upside to the iPhone number?

         
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    Posted: 13 June 2010 03:18 PM #4

    I give you my plus/minus thoughts but with it being a launch qtr, you can get easily get a large variability, due to when the qtr ends and the fact they book units when sold to the consumer from their stores, but when received by resellers, so in theory if the likes of Walmart, ATT ect take large preorders Apple will deliver higher numbers until supply is gone.  The fact they are doing this will also reduce the time per sale so more sales in the 3 days of the current qtr.

    Pros: BRIC countries India & Russia now selling 3GS , China Unicom increases subsidy 99$ 3GS with 15$ data opens new tier in pricing umbrella.  We are at the sweet spot of the growth curve for both smartphone in general and iPhone

    Cons: Early reveal on iPhone 4, only 3 sales days in Qtr,s iPad buyer fatigue

         
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    Posted: 13 June 2010 03:36 PM #5

    EDIT:  iPod touch numbers could be in the 4 million+ range.

    I can’t remember exactly when he said it, but I watched the full D8 Steve Jobs interview and he apparently dropped a new data point that I don’t think anyone’s ever heard before.  Which was, IIRC, that for the previous holiday quarter, Apple sold about as many iPod touches as iPhones!

    Not much to go on, but at least in that quarter, iPod touch represented about EDIT: 40-45% of all iPod sales (21 mil iPods, 8.7 mil iPhones)

    [ Edited: 13 June 2010 03:55 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 14 June 2010 12:12 AM #6

    pats - 13 June 2010 06:18 PM

    I give you my plus/minus thoughts but with it being a launch qtr, you can get easily get a large variability, due to when the qtr ends and the fact they book units when sold to the consumer from their stores, but when received by resellers, so in theory if the likes of Walmart, ATT ect take large preorders Apple will deliver higher numbers until supply is gone.  The fact they are doing this will also reduce the time per sale so more sales in the 3 days of the current qtr.

    Pros: BRIC countries India & Russia now selling 3GS , China Unicom increases subsidy 99$ 3GS with 15$ data opens new tier in pricing umbrella.  We are at the sweet spot of the growth curve for both smartphone in general and iPhone

    Cons: Early reveal on iPhone 4, only 3 sales days in Qtr,s iPad buyer fatigue

    Getting the 3GS will help, but doesn’t apple have more fundamental challenges to overcome in these markets? I keep wanting to hear a question about this on the conference calls but the topic seems to be getting less airplay these days. I’d like to hear what the strategy is for India as I fear there isn’t one. Are there any links/data points anyone can find that shows progress?

         
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    Posted: 14 June 2010 07:59 AM #7

    cranium - 14 June 2010 03:12 AM

    Getting the 3GS will help, but doesn’t apple have more fundamental challenges to overcome in these markets? I keep wanting to hear a question about this on the conference calls but the topic seems to be getting less airplay these days. I’d like to hear what the strategy is for India as I fear there isn’t one. Are there any links/data points anyone can find that shows progress?

    It’s very, very difficult to sell a data oriented mobile device in countries where there are minimal to no mobile data networks.  3G is practically non-existent in India.  The iPhone addressable market today is in the intersection of two other markets: pre-paid and 3G.  In markets where neither is present the iPhone will be rare indeed.

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    Posted: 14 June 2010 03:53 PM #8

    asymco - 14 June 2010 10:59 AM
    cranium - 14 June 2010 03:12 AM

    Getting the 3GS will help, but doesn’t apple have more fundamental challenges to overcome in these markets? I keep wanting to hear a question about this on the conference calls but the topic seems to be getting less airplay these days. I’d like to hear what the strategy is for India as I fear there isn’t one. Are there any links/data points anyone can find that shows progress?

    It’s very, very difficult to sell a data oriented mobile device in countries where there are minimal to no mobile data networks.  3G is practically non-existent in India.  The iPhone addressable market today is in the intersection of two other markets: pre-paid and 3G.  In markets where neither is present the iPhone will be rare indeed.

    Just like in other countries, I think the iphone is a status symbol and will still be popular. The phone still works on EDGE remember, that is all mine has, (Wi-Fi of course) and one would have to think that the market in India is just going to get larger. :apple:

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