AAPL June Quarter Final Estimates

  • Posted: 10 July 2010 11:12 PM

    I’ve just revised my June quarter estimates. The unit sales numbers can be found in this post at Eventide.

    Top Line: Revenue of $16.433 billion

    Bottom Line: $3.71 per share

    [ Edited: 12 July 2010 03:46 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 10 July 2010 11:18 PM #1

    Tetrachloride - 04 July 2010 01:48 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 04 July 2010 12:42 AM

    Great to see your estimates, DT! Why not post your EPS estimate?

    Using Deagol’s revenue and eps estimate as a guide, I suppose that DT’s eps estimate is $ 3.70.

    That was an amazingly good guess.  grin

    I was at $3.69 per share. I’ve just bumped up my iPod unit sales to a 10% or so YOY decline. I’m now at $3.71 per share.

         
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    Posted: 11 July 2010 12:40 AM #2

    DawnTreader - 11 July 2010 02:18 AM
    Tetrachloride - 04 July 2010 01:48 AM
    adamthompson3232 - 04 July 2010 12:42 AM

    Great to see your estimates, DT! Why not post your EPS estimate?

    Using Deagol’s revenue and eps estimate as a guide, I suppose that DT’s eps estimate is $ 3.70.

    That was an amazingly good guess.  grin

    I was at $3.69 per share. I’ve just bumped up my iPod unit sales to a 10% or so YOY decline. I’m now at $3.71 per share.

    Ok…for the last quarter, while members of the AFB had the closest estimates to actual, everyone was roughly $.50 per share low.  So hopefully everyone is using similar methodology this quarter as adding “fitty” cents to $3.70 results in a very nice number.  China was a nice surprise last quarter and most likely even more so this quarter.  Current whisper number at earningswhisper.com is $3.40.

         
  • Posted: 11 July 2010 12:58 AM #3

    madmaxroi - 11 July 2010 03:40 AM

    Ok…for the last quarter, while members of the AFB had the closest estimates to actual, everyone was roughly $.50 per share low.  So hopefully everyone is using similar methodology this quarter as adding “fitty” cents to $3.70 results in a very nice number.  China was a nice surprise last quarter and most likely even more so this quarter.  Current whisper number at earningswhisper.com is $3.40.

    $4.20 per share ($3.70 plus $.50) is a tall order.  grin

         
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    Posted: 11 July 2010 01:16 AM #4

    DT - An EPS of $3.71 on revs of $16.4 billion?  That assumes earnings of about $3.35 billion, and a 20.5% profitability ratio, considerably lower than last quarter’s 22.7%.  It’s even lower than the iPod-heavy Q1 2010 (21.6%).  I see more iPads, less iPods, and higher everything else YOY (maybe even sequentially) plus Apple’s “profit efficiency” with higher revs leading to higher margins/profits.  At $16.4 billion, I’d expect EPS to be $4.00+ absent something like a much higher tax rate or those mysterious “product transition” expenses I’ve always been waiting for but never see.

    Earnings seem a little conservative.  Your thoughts?

    [ Edited: 11 July 2010 01:20 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 11 July 2010 02:10 AM #5

    Impacting eps is “share count creep” one of Mark’s favorite topics. My estimates are based on over 928 million fully diluted shares outstanding or an increase of about 2.1% over last year. That will have a slight impact on eps results.

    Removing the impact of the Apple iPad I’d be at about $14.2 billion in revenue and about $3.21 per share, representing YOY revenue growth of 46% over the prior year period and eps growth of about 60%. Revenue growth in more direct YOY comparisons is higher than the 39.2% experienced in the first six months of the fiscal year with eps growth slightly below the 63.2% growth for the first six months. The reasons for the differences are as follows:

    I expect the tax rate to move above the 23.7% of FQ2 (it included a one-time adjustment) and track just below the 29% of the first fiscal quarter. I expect gross margins to be below last quarter’s extraordinarily high rate and to be slightly below the most recent 6-quarter average.

         
  • Posted: 11 July 2010 02:13 AM #6

    Further, I don’t see an appreciable reduction in the SG&A and R&D expense ratios relative to revenue with the introduction of the iPad and the uptick in new store activity relative to last year.

         
  • Posted: 11 July 2010 03:10 AM #7

    In looking at the numbers, my revenue growth forecast for the quarter (absent the iPad) is down slightly from the 48.6% experienced in FQ2 and the eps growth rate is off sharply from the FQ2 pace of 86%. But in removing the one-time tax anomaly for FQ2, eps growth for the first six months of the fiscal year falls slightly below my 60% eps growth estimate sans the iPad.

    In all, considering FQ2’s high margins and one-time tax adjustment, my non-iPad eps estimates for the quarter are inline with what would be expected eps growth based on recent trends.

    I can’t build a case for anywhere near $4.00 per share on $16 billion in revenue.