Gartner and IDC numbers

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    Posted: 14 July 2010 11:48 PM

    So the Gartner and IDC numbers are out

    My interpretation.  The IDC numbers are BS so I’l work from Gartner which I think are relatively inline with NPD.  we show 1748.8 for US .  In FY 2009 the Apple breakout in 2009 was 32.9% Americas, 30% Europe, 4.3% Japan, 11.5% Asia Pacific, 20.5% Retail and 9% Other.  The most recent quarter in 2010 we have 33% Americas, 30.5% Europe, 4.4% Japan, 11.5% Retail and 36% Other. 

    Acoording to ifoApple store we currently have 283 stores of which 63 are non US so as a percentage of retail 22%.

    So the math part.  We have from the recent Apple Qtr %Americas + % Retail = 1748,8.  If we assume some QOQ constancy then we can expect that the retail plus Americas is around 53% . So bottom line I would expect only positive suprise based on Gatner/NPD data. the IDC data points to negative suprise

    [ Edited: 15 July 2010 09:52 AM by pats ]      
  • Posted: 15 July 2010 01:06 AM #1

    Based on the Gartner numbers, my estimate of 3.46 million Macs sold in the quarter (assuming slightly more than 50% of sales were international) is right on track.

    Outside of the iPad unit numbers (which Apple served up to analysts on a golden platter), my Mac forecast is the one for which I have the greatest confidence.

    If Mac sales blow past 3.4 million units, consensus will be shredded next week.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2010 02:24 AM #2

    adamthompson3232 - 15 July 2010 04:47 AM

    PED shows analyst Mac consensus at 3.23M units as of July 8th. This consensus number doesn’t take into account all analysts but represents a sampling of WS analysts done by PED. I would assume it is good +/- 100K units. Looks to me like consensus is going to be shattered.

    PED should be releasing Mac unit sales estimates any day now. Obviously the Mac on a per unit basis has the greates imapct on revenue and eps.

    Removing the iPad from the numbers, I’m in the low 3.20s per share. It comes down to Macs and iPhones for the quarter. The iPod is relatively inconsequential as revenue moves north of $15 billion.

    I’m comparatively high on my iPhone estimates and expect to be comparatively high on my Mac estimates as well.

    I look at it another way: If we remove 3.3 million iPads (where most of the analysts are bunched), consensus would fall to around $2.60 or so per share or eps growth of around 29%, well under the 63% pace of the first six months of the fiscal year. Even removing the one-time tax benefit of FQ2 and the higher-than-average gross margin, consensus of $3.07 per share is low if even based on more conservative iPhone and Mac unit sales estimates.

    I do expect strong Mac sales and both the IDC and Gartner numbers suggest an impressive Mac unit sales quarter.

         
  • Posted: 15 July 2010 02:38 AM #3

    By the way, in FQ2 Mac sales throughout the Americas and Apple’s international chain of retail stores represented about 53.6% of Mac unit shipments.

    Let’s assume somehow IDC’s numbers are on the money and domestic sales represent 48% of shipments. It works out to about 3.371 million Macs. Using the Gartner numbers it works out to about 3.643 million units. Averaging the two works out to about 3.51 million units.

    I think Mac shipments will deliver a solid surprise next week.

         
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    Posted: 15 July 2010 02:47 AM #4

    Mac sales will uptick very nicely, sure, but I need a little convincing about a Mac number in the 3.4 million range.  Part of it is that it’d be a record high for Apple, where historically Q4 is when Mac sales are strongest.  The iMac wasn’t refreshed this quarter at all (yes it’s a desktop, but by far the most popular in Apple’s lineup), the Mac Pro is ancient, and I’m not sure how much Mac mini will help alongside the new MacBook line (as for MacBook Air, does anyone buy those anymore?)

    In the abstract, 33% unit growth seems possible, even with the recent economic jitters in May and some of June.  But going forward, especially in the absence of updated Macs, I expect Mac growth to slowly moderate to 25-30% YOY top-end, even in better economic times.  It’s just plain harder to keep YOY percentage growth the same on a larger and larger unit sales base.

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  • Posted: 15 July 2010 11:52 PM #5

    adamthompson3232 - 15 July 2010 01:48 PM

    I think one of the biggest drivers may be the iPad launch. The retail stores were absolutely jam packed throughout the quarter with people looking at iPads. This may push up the % of total Macs sold domestically up (most retail stores are domestic and the iPad didn’t launch in many countries during the quarter) but hopefully not by too much as I do believe iPad hype around the world may have driven Mac switchers in other countries as well. I expect a strong Mac unit #.

    A few positives:

    An increase in the number of international stores over the past year.

    The iPad launch which brought heavy foot traffic to the stores and exposure to Apple products to consumers that might not have had cause to venture into an Apple retail store before.

    I do expect an uptick in school sales (the June quarter is traditionally a strong quarter for school sales).

    I also expect a strong Mac quarter.