AAPL June Quarter Earnings

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    Posted: 20 July 2010 06:54 PM #16

    Mac growth in China is 140%!

    As Artman would say; “ZOUNDS!”

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2010 07:02 PM #17

    In spite of the slow AH decline (on low volume)  from the initial pop to 262 (mainly caused by a heavy short squeeze) I am now quite confident that we will soon approach a new all time high! Just note that the iPad and iPhone 4 unit numbers have been only constrained by supply, and supply will heavily increase this quarter!

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 07:11 PM #18

    A bit disappointed at the AH action, why is it we cannot go over 270 since 2 back to back blowout quarters

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2010 07:30 PM #19

    actually Asymco had 4 that were on target but Deagol almost nailed EPS. Congrats to all you guys who made your numbers known to us.

    Here is PED’s graphic with hits circled by roughsailing at sanity

    I pulled the image as it obviously had some errors

    [ Edited: 20 July 2010 08:34 PM by $Billyall ]      
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 07:33 PM #20

    Or perhaps everyone saw that article I posted in the intraday thread and is waiting for a cheaper entry price tomorrow.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2010 07:40 PM #21

    I did rather well for myself with my first attempt at a product breakdown.  It was all very conservative.  http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/forums/viewthread/78820/

    Somewhere in another thread, our calculation of 3.2 million iPads sold was good as compared to actual of 3.29.  IIRC, I had another estimate.  My iPod estimate (can’t find it now) was among the lowest of the AFB.  My Mac estimate was way off.  I didn’t think Macs could go over 3.2 million.

    I will have better documentation next time. 

    Next batch of statistics should be Aug 1.  Anything sooner ?

    [ Edited: 20 July 2010 07:44 PM by Tetrachloride ]      
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 07:49 PM #22

    $Billyall - 20 July 2010 10:30 PM

    edit: wasnt paying attention, originally had written nailed iphones.

    Revisiting things, some things just look more obvious AFTER the fact.  The big surprise was OPEX.  Wow, what an increase.  Income tax was a surprise as well.  I knew I was high on GM %, but I’ll be more skeptical of iSuppli cost tear-downs in the future (as affirmed by Peter or Tim on the call).

    On the subject of the circles, two points:  I’d take being closest to EPS than the sales #! So congrats to Daniel and Vijay.

    Also, 3.26M (and 3.25M for that matter) iPads is closer to 3.27M actual than 3.3M you’ve circled.  Thanks for highlighting things.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2010 08:01 PM #23

    The circling wasnt my handiwork as I posted, I just copied the graphic from Roughsailings post at the Sanity forum. I will let him know he has some errors.

    Im sure PED is going to update his chart himself with all the closest hits highlighted.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 08:08 PM #24

    artman1033 - 20 July 2010 10:50 PM

    EPS=$3.51 per diluted share.

    909,938,000 diluted shares.

    Looking ahead, will be offering free cases to customers who have purchased iPhone 4. As a result, will be deferring revenue for value of those cases—about $175 million—which will be recognized in the December quarter. Will recognize the cost of the cases as we deliver them to customers.

    SO, the 175,000,000 added BACK into earnings WOULD have added .19 to the total = $3.70 expected Whisper earnings.

    How is my math.

    The $175M is for cases expected to be “sold” through Sept. 30, so there’s only a partial add-back to Q3.  $175M / $30 = 5.8M cases.  I think this is a pretty decent estimate.  Here’s a WAG:  If Apple assumes 70% of iPhone 4 customers claim reimbursement or get a free case, then Apple is estimating 8M iPhone 4 units sold through Qtr 4 end Sept. 30?

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 08:12 PM #25

    $Billyall - 20 July 2010 11:01 PM

    The circling wasnt my handiwork as I posted, I just copied the graphic from Roughsailings post at the Sanity forum. I will let him know he has some errors.

    Im sure PED is going to update his chart himself with all the closest hits highlighted.

    I’ll let PED finish things, but again, the non-Affiliated analysts scored more circles than the “pros.” As if that was in doubt…
    :-D

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2010 08:16 PM #26

    artman1033 - 20 July 2010 10:13 PM

    The AFB bloggers appear to have won the contest by P.E.D.

    DEAGOL appears to me to be the overall winner.

    No question about it.  Congrats, Deagol and AFB’ers.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 08:18 PM #27

    It was good to hear Tim say that the iPhone 4 run rate is signifigantly higher than the previous model and that they are selling every phone they can make.

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 08:58 PM #28

    Congratulations to all longs ... I bailed on my deep red Oct 270’s near EOD (bought before the antenna fiasco) ... was concerned that something in the report would be used as an excuse to sell the news.

    Still feel I made the right move ... also bought some Oct 240’s on the dip to 240 so all is not lost smile

    Hoping for a short pause on the train so I can climb aboard again in the next week or so.

    Tomorrow should be interesting to say the least ... when I first heard the EPS ... I have to admit I was concerned since the whisper number had risen in the past couple days.

    Again, hope everyone sleeps well tonight ... well done Apple!

         
  • Posted: 20 July 2010 08:58 PM #29

    I am pretty pleased.  Bought some July 23 $260’s for $1.65 this morning.  Reckon I will sell them at the open tomorrow morning.

    It is going according to plan my friends, according to plan.

         
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    Posted: 20 July 2010 09:38 PM #30

    macglenn - 20 July 2010 08:55 PM

    Are we getting screwed because we missed the whisper?

    Yes.

    Apple is the only company who’s revenue is measured in billions and who’s earnings are increasing it at 50+% YOY for each of the last 10 or so quarters.

    In spite of the depression, in spite of the state of the economy, in spite of any government policies for or against business.

    For those rates, AAPL is treated, by Wall Street, as worth less per dollar earned than Nokia, Adobe or Lenovo (lower PE).

    There is no rational justification for the pricing of AAPL.

    And they get knocked for not beating numbers enough because they couldn’t ramp up product quickly enough.  Which is the best problem any business could have.