100 Million iPads Sold In A Year: When?

  • Posted: 31 July 2010 01:12 AM

    The iPad is big. Really big! How long will it take apple to get to a 100 million per year run rate? I think inside 4 years is likely, with the possibility of 3 if supply constraints don’t get in the way. This product is no longer about the Mac vs. Windows. This is a product that everyone everywhere will, or already wants. Apple’s stock may be a better deal today at $260 than it was at $160, pre-iPad.

     

     

     

    [Title edited by DT]

    [ Edited: 31 July 2010 02:00 AM by DawnTreader ]

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    Posted: 31 July 2010 11:35 AM #1

    All new factories, maybe not in China ?!?

         
  • Posted: 31 July 2010 02:28 PM #2

    jeffi - 31 July 2010 04:12 AM

    Apple’s stock may be a better deal today at $260 than it was at $160, pre-iPad.

    I think we know that.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 31 July 2010 04:05 PM #3

    It’s much too soon to call 100 million iPads a year only one quarter out.  And unlike iPhone, which is a player in a 1 billion+ unit market where smartphone growth is huge, iPad is still considered to be a subsegment of the much smaller, slower-growing PC market (300 million+ units).  It’ll take some equally good engineering and marketing from Apple just to make iPad into an iPod-volume device (50 million/yr, 12.5 mil/qtr). 

    I do think iPad is off to a amazing start and that it’ll sell between 20-30 million units next fiscal year.  At 100 million iPads, we’re talking in the neighborhood of all of Apple’s quarterly revs for all products and services this fiscal year.  I’m tracking trends one year, one generation at time.

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  • Posted: 31 July 2010 09:46 PM #4

    Mav - 31 July 2010 07:05 PM

    It’s much too soon to call 100 million iPads a year only one quarter out.  And unlike iPhone, which is a player in a 1 billion+ unit market where smartphone growth is huge, iPad is still considered to be a subsegment of the much smaller, slower-growing PC market (300 million+ units).  It’ll take some equally good engineering and marketing from Apple just to make iPad into an iPod-volume device (50 million/yr, 12.5 mil/qtr). 

    I do think iPad is off to a amazing start and that it’ll sell between 20-30 million units next fiscal year.  At 100 million iPads, we’re talking in the neighborhood of all of Apple’s quarterly revs for all products and services this fiscal year.  I’m tracking trends one year, one generation at time.

    Of course it’s too soon to ask this question. On the other hand, the way too make money in the stock market is to anticipate where things are going. This product was under estimated from the start. No one knows how big this might really be. I think this product transcends PCs. Yes, future revenue will be substantially higher than pundits realize. I thought the IPhone made Apple. This product propels them to another level. I cannot see APPL lower in one year under any scenario (double dip, depression etc.). Sometimes, the best opportunities are in plain sight.
    Of

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  • Posted: 31 July 2010 10:47 PM #5

    I would encourage people to think about the numbers of iOS devices rather than thinking of the unit sales of one iOS device.

    Makes more sense to me.

         
  • Posted: 31 July 2010 11:39 PM #6

    roni - 01 August 2010 01:47 AM

    I would encourage people to think about the numbers of iOS devices rather than thinking of the unit sales of one iOS device.

    Makes more sense to me.

    That’s an important point. From the standpoint of monetization and overall revenue growth, one misses the bigger picture when focused on one product or product line.

         
  • Posted: 31 July 2010 11:52 PM #7

    Managing product manufacture of anywhere near 100 million units on an annual basis would require strategic partnerships with component suppliers, increased manufacturing capacity on an exponential scale and a market that can absorb the volume.

    100 million units a year would be revenue volume on the scale of $60 billion, not including accessories and content sales through iTunes. We’ll see, but it won’t be next fiscal year.  grin

         
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    Posted: 01 August 2010 12:33 AM #8

    DawnTreader - 01 August 2010 02:52 AM

    Managing product manufacture of anywhere near 100 million units on an annual basis would require strategic partnerships with component suppliers, increased manufacturing capacity on an exponential scale and a market that can absorb the volume.

    100 million units a year would be revenue volume on the scale of $60 billion, not including accessories and content sales through iTunes. We’ll see, but it won’t be next fiscal year.  grin


    Hey, its my job to pour cold water over these overly optimistic projections. :-D

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    Posted: 01 August 2010 06:17 AM #9

    jeffi - 01 August 2010 12:46 AM
    Mav - 31 July 2010 07:05 PM

    It’s much too soon to call 100 million iPads a year only one quarter out ...

    Of course it’s too soon to ask this question. On the other hand, the way too make money in the stock market is to anticipate where things are going. This product was under estimated from the start. No one knows how big this might really be ... Sometimes, the best opportunities are in plain sight.

    Agree with both of you.  Institutional investors want to see sufficient evidence before making big bets.  Buy-n-hold retail investors can bet big based on their overly optimistic (anti-mbeach) projections.  So far, these AAPL investors are enjoying good returns.  Ofc, a trader would need to care about what institutional investors are thinking now, current macro-economic conditions and political sentiments.  IMHO, a double dip recession is almost inevitable.  However, broad market has yet to go into a sustained down spin, probably because too many traders have anticipated a double recession and have taken money off the table, gone sidelined.  This reduced selling pressure and hence no sustained down spin.  Market is waiting for a Black Swan trigger.

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  • Posted: 04 August 2010 06:51 AM #10

    DawnTreader - 01 August 2010 02:52 AM

    Managing product manufacture of anywhere near 100 million units on an annual basis would require strategic partnerships with component suppliers, increased manufacturing capacity on an exponential scale and a market that can absorb the volume.

    100 million units a year would be revenue volume on the scale of $60 billion, not including accessories and content sales through iTunes. We’ll see, but it won’t be next fiscal year.  grin

    I think if iPad reaches an annual 100M run-rate, the price would have dropped substantially. Based on the empirics of how rapidly hw prices fall, with volume.

    One of my favourite thoughts is Apple making the 100 dollar laptop possible, except it would be a 100 dollar iPad. It will definitely happen within 4 years. But, will other tablets be even more popular?