Does anyone expect monster sales of Android tablets?

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    Posted: 05 August 2010 01:52 PM #16

    rattyuk - 05 August 2010 04:05 PM

    But anyway. My original question is What does activation actually mean? Does it actually mean that Google are adding 200,000 new devices a day or does it mean something else?

    Fair enough question. Answer is that it doesn’t matter. Divide it by 4 if you like. The trend here is for Android to achieve ubiquity. 8 months ago, it was a curiosity for geeky developers with T-Mobile accounts. In Q2, it was the leading smartphone OS in the US. Something in Android’s DNA made that possible.

    Look. I’m really not trying to be a dick about this. It frustrates me that Apple is once again, going to find itself out of the game, because it does have something to contribute, just not the whole package. If find, for example, that developers who have had experience with the Mac market make better looking and more useful products for Windows and Android. I can see some of those products and have a real hunch that a Mac guy had a hand in them, and when I dig, yeah, that was the case.

    If you watch Android space right now, you will see a cornucopia of different Android things coming out. Some try to mimic a “tablet”, a la the iPad. Of course there are phones at several levels and price points. But you’ll also see alarm clocks, netbooks, and yes, glorified photo frames. There is a ton of absolute crapola, yes. But there is experimentation on a level that one company cannot achieve. There are devices that are shipping with 1.6, which seems terribly backwards with FroYo out now. But there are people pouring their hearts and souls into these contraptions, and some of them are going to stick. And they’ll evolve. And they’ll become part of the mainstream Android landscape.

         
  • Posted: 05 August 2010 02:03 PM #17

    FlipFriddle - 05 August 2010 03:31 PM

    I do agree that no one should underestimate the power of something cheap and “good enough.” That got everyone wet for netbooks which were in actuality just really cheap smaller laptops. Laptops couldn’t get any cheaper so the manufacturers decided to make them smaller to save money and the marketing gurus invented the term netbook. People bought lots of those.

    Agreed, but in this case Apple has left no room for a price point significantly lower for a product that would be even remotely “good enough”.  If a tablet has a 10 inch touchscreen that can play movies and browse the web, it is going to cost more than $349 at retail, and if it has a smaller screen or can’t run movies or isn’t a touch screen, it will have a hard time getting any traction.  Netbooks really were good enough for basic laptop functions, and the price difference (particularly compared to Apple products before the iPad) was very substantial.

    With the iOS family of products Apple has taken the opposite pricing approach from its Mac product line.  The iPod Touch is aggressively priced at $199, and a few years later there is still no competitor.  The iPhone price to the consumer is either $99 or $199.  $499 is very aggressive for the iPad, and Apple can go lower if it needs to.  Tim Cook has repeatedly referenced that, with respect to the iOS line, Apple is not going to provide a “pricing umbrella” for the OEM crowd to take advantage of. 

    Android did not achieve large smartphone sales because of a pricing umbrella.  The AT&T exclusivity, coupled with the other carrier’s desperate need to push a competing platform, gave Android that opening, and no such dynamic exists for the tablet.

    [ Edited: 05 August 2010 02:19 PM by macorange ]      
  • Posted: 05 August 2010 02:18 PM #18

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 05 August 2010 04:52 PM

      you’ll also see alarm clocks, netbooks, and yes, glorified photo frames.

    Agreed, but if one ecosystem becomes dominant, over time all of these things will migrate to the dominant ecosystem. 

    IMHO, what will cause one ecosystem to become dominant will be determined solely by the computing device that we use on a daily basis—not by our photo frames, alarm clocks, or even phones.

    For 20 years Windows was the dominant ecosystem.  It is about to be upended by iOS.  Android is actually doing Apple a favor right now by preventing Windows from having a decent shot at competing in the smaller computing devices that are the future of daily computer usage.

    If Android tablets could outsell the iPad, its a horse race, but for the reasons expressed in my post, I don’t think Apple has left the OEM’s a pricing umbrella to make a successful counterattack to the iPad.

         
  • Posted: 05 August 2010 02:26 PM #19

    The Indian government just announced a tablet computer for $35. In five years its suppose to come down to just $10. Will be interesting to see if it ever gets exported.

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  • Posted: 05 August 2010 02:26 PM #20

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 05 August 2010 11:52 AM
      you?ll also see alarm clocks, netbooks, and yes, glorified photo frames.

    But this really doesn’t make any sense. Why would you require a fully fledged OS to do these things? I could see that you might want something that passes itself off as these things maybe. But it doesn’t seem a good idea to put a full OS into something that does only one thing.

    But market share of alarm clocks? Market share of photo frames? I get the ubiquity concept but just shoving a mobile OS into everything is unnecessary overkill.

    On the 7” Tablet Front. If this allows the iPad to hit say a $250 price point then competitors are going to find it hard to compete. I think people would prefer the real thing to a photo frame that doubles as a web browser.

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  • Posted: 05 August 2010 03:07 PM #21

    tonyinsf - 05 August 2010 05:26 PM

    The Indian government just announced a tablet computer for $35. In five years its suppose to come down to just $10. Will be interesting to see if it ever gets exported.

    They announced a concept.  No manufacturer was named.  Just like One Laptop Per Child announced a $100 laptop that ended up costing about $200, and that was a manufactured cost, not a retail cost.

    I know a fair amount about low-cost component parts for these kind of devices, and $35 is a fantasy.

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2010 05:05 PM #22

    The Apple touch screen is in the range of $80-100 add in the SOC/RAM at $25 and 16GB of NAND at $20.  You can’t get to $35 for anything I would consider. 

    As far as Android tablets go, Apple’s go to market strategy with their focus on doing a few things extremely well seems to sit well with actual users.  The theoretical Android tablet must be better at some things and offer a lower price or their only customers will be Apple hating geeks.  Since Apple built the iOS for the iPhone, the incremental cost of the OS over the millions of devices is pretty small relative to the cost for a small company to customize android for a tablet.  Google already has star billing on the iPad via U-tube and Google search.  If they customize android to compete directly with Apple’s iPad they better duck for cover.  Android to date has done more damage to the likes of RIM, Nokia & Microsoft.  Personally I think it would be a risky strategy to go head to head against Apple when they are trying to establish a new form factor.  That leaves only the biggest players.  Samsung & LG already supply many of the key components for the iPad so they risk pissing off a good customer vs gaining an incremental sale.  Obviously all of these folks compete for smart phones, but that is a proven huge market which will support multiple players.  Microsoft is still trying to convince OEMs to use Windows on a tablet and I think they will produce a viable contender once Intel delivers Moorestown.  But that won’t happen till mid 2011 if I was guessing. 

    With all the production limitations for the IPS LCDs and larger touch screens, I doubt anyone can jump ahead of Apple, the suppliers are not going to dump Apple for this other OEM unless the contract is huge and their are very few players willing to commit a billion dollars against an unknown market.  I doubt we will see any real competition until next year (2011).  The only dark horse IMO is HP.  They had a tablet ready to manufacture based on W7 but have reloaded and I’m sure will bring an interesting product to market based on Web OS.  As far as Google’s play I think they would love to field a Chrome OS based tablet like the iPad but they need to find the right OEMs.

         
  • Posted: 05 August 2010 05:13 PM #23

    pats - 05 August 2010 08:05 PM

    ... Samsung & LG already supply many of the key components for the iPad so they risk pissing off a good customer vs gaining an incremental sale. ....

    Has Samsung already made a tablet??

    http://www.pcworld.com/article/202347/let_the_samsung_galaxy_tablet_hype_begin.html

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2010 05:18 PM #24

    rattyuk - 05 August 2010 05:26 PM

    Bosco (Brad Hutchings) - 05 August 2010 11:52 AM
      you?ll also see alarm clocks, netbooks, and yes, glorified photo frames.

    But this really doesn’t make any sense. Why would you require a fully fledged OS to do these things? I could see that you might want something that passes itself off as these things maybe. But it doesn’t seem a good idea to put a full OS into something that does only one thing.

    But market share of alarm clocks? Market share of photo frames? I get the ubiquity concept but just shoving a mobile OS into everything is unnecessary overkill.

    On the 7” Tablet Front. If this allows the iPad to hit say a $250 price point then competitors are going to find it hard to compete. I think people would prefer the real thing to a photo frame that doubles as a web browser.

    Ratty you might be interested in this

    Want a cool and feature-rich digital photo frame? Well, the Grande Specchio by Martin Szekely might be just what you?re looking for, assuming you have a spare $650 to burn. To begin with, it?s powered by Google?s Android, making it the first wireless digital photo frame to be powered by Google?s mobile OS.

    Or you could buy an iPad for $499 and guess what it includes a photo frame function in the screen saver. :wink:

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2010 05:30 PM #25

    daveynb - 05 August 2010 08:13 PM
    pats - 05 August 2010 08:05 PM

    ... Samsung & LG already supply many of the key components for the iPad so they risk pissing off a good customer vs gaining an incremental sale. ....

    Has Samsung already made a tablet??

    http://www.pcworld.com/article/202347/let_the_samsung_galaxy_tablet_hype_begin.html

    Won’t argue, but tablet like 5” Dell Streak or 7” Samsung or 4.3” EVO.  are still searching the market space.  Apple is one of the few that can introduce a new concept successfully.  Samsung of any companies IMO has a most interesting relationship with Apple.  I would go so far to say if Apple wanted to address the bottom 50% of the market they would buy Samsung.  The two obviously are very intertwined.  Until Iphone 4 Samsung was sharing the design load of the SOC which now Samsung is providing the foundry but not the design.  Samsung much more then Google has a good understanding of Apple and their products but I don’t think Samsung’s reputation on the high end electronics is comparable to Apple’s even though they supply some of the key components.  Apple could use Samsung as the value brand and Apple as the premium brand.  Now that would rock the world of the likes of Google and Microsoft.  I doubt it would happen but speculation is great fun.

         
  • Posted: 05 August 2010 06:29 PM #26

    Flying joe,

    Welcome. Many of us are glad you’re here. Stay connected.

    Dan

         
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    Posted: 05 August 2010 10:00 PM #27

    pats - 05 August 2010 08:30 PM

    ... Samsung of any companies IMO has a most interesting relationship with Apple.  I would go so far to say if Apple wanted to address the bottom 50% of the market they would buy Samsung.  The two obviously are very intertwined.  Until Iphone 4 Samsung was sharing the design load of the SOC which now Samsung is providing the foundry but not the design.  Samsung much more then Google has a good understanding of Apple and their products but I don’t think Samsung’s reputation on the high end electronics is comparable to Apple’s even though they supply some of the key components.  Apple could use Samsung as the value brand and Apple as the premium brand ...

    Common practice in the car industry.  Toyota/Lexus, Honda/Acura, Nissan/Infiniti, Ford/Lincoln, ...  Strategically, acquiring a Chinese handset maker would be better. Play inside the biggest future consumer market.  Apple brand for caucasian taste consumers, Chinese brand for Asian taste consumers.

    IMHO, Apple shouldn’t rollout iPad like for iPod and iPhone.  It should exploit this window of opportunity, where every competitor was caught by surprise, to accelerate the rollout and flood the market.  1 mil per month is too slow, should accelerate to 5 mil per month.

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    Posted: 05 August 2010 11:10 PM #28

    Eric Landstrom - 05 August 2010 04:42 PM


    2) The upstairs kitchen has an uber-cool digitally controlled range. Its awesome. Except the digital button pad messes up if it is kept in a humid environment like in my house where the automatic humidifier that is part of the HVAC keeps the house perfectly controlled at 55% relative humidity. In that kind of “extreme humidity,” then the range shells a $500.00 part every year or so. I’ve replaced the part four times.

     


    55% is “extreme humidity”, rolleyes  you leave me stunned Eric :bugeyed:  (and laughing) LOL . If you have appliances crapping out at 55% humidity, then you are obviously paying way to much for them. My cheap stuff does really good in 80% humidity. My first observation would be “mechanic” failure if you have to replace the same part over and over. That bubble you live in cracks me up. :-D

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  • Posted: 05 August 2010 11:52 PM #29

    Considering the reach and customer base of Google (advertisers), I can say that I would be a little nervous if Google has that much reach into my living room. I would hate to start seeing spam advertisements for sweaters and blankets because Google sold my average 68 degree thermostat settings to the highest bidder.

         
  • Posted: 06 August 2010 02:50 PM #30

    dmuzzy - 06 August 2010 02:52 AM

    Considering the reach and customer base of Google (advertisers), I can say that I would be a little nervous if Google has that much reach into my living room. I would hate to start seeing spam advertisements for sweaters and blankets because Google sold my average 68 degree thermostat settings to the highest bidder.

    Hehe. Oh yeah, and they’ll do it to. If you ever have something with a screen and an internet connection, at some point someone will try to put ads on it.

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