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AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)
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AAPL collapsing again AH now 246-247. WTF
Cisco outlook “soft”. Could this be the reason?
We’ll never buy a network switch again. Evar.
On the other hand, everybody on Fast Money appears to be using Macs.
[ Edited: 11 August 2010 06:26 PM by Eric Landstrom ]Signature
Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).
For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.
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Could it be folks are getting Margin calls and have to liquidate AAPL in their accounts.
[ Edited: 11 August 2010 06:41 PM by thealct ]
EDIT: More margin call liquidation tomorrow, we will bounce off 240 and be pinned to 250 for this Friday and all of next week. Yuk ! -
AAPL collapsing again AH now 246-247. WTF
Cisco outlook “soft”. Could this be the reason?
EPS - $.43 actual vs. $.42 estimate vs. $.45 whisper.
Missed their top-line revenue number by $50 million versus total revenues above $10 billion - GIMME A BREAK
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August Max Pain is now at $250. My, what a coincidence!
It’s been 250 for a while now. But I’ve been assuming that the Current Pain was 260, since the price visited there each Friday.
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This is a good learning experience for me. I’m still up on my 2011 LEAPS that I bought in February, but hindsight being what it is, should have at least sold a portion of them at the first signs of a top in April/May, booked some profits, and waited.
I’m still confident they will be profitable for me, but I’ll be a little more careful next time.
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Thursday
R4 269.54
midpoint 266.60
R3 263.66
midpoint 260.72
R2 257.78
midpoint 255.88
R1 253.98
midpoint 252.94
PP 251.90
midpoint 250.00
S1 248.10
midpoint 247.06
S2 246.02
midpoint 243.08
S3 240.14
midpoint 237.20
S4 234.26 -
Artman,
How does one find the Implied Volatility for AAPL. How is that calculated. The reason I ask is there was a posting on the Yahoo board regarding pinning as many are baffled as to why AAPL is stuck at 260 for 3 weeks, and response was as follows.
If anyone has been paying attention, the implied volatility has been dropping after an initial surge following the last earning report. The current range will stay in effect until the current implied volatility drops enough that the big money players are going to quit selling at the current levels and let it move up a strike price. Any quick move up will reestablish a higher implied volatility level and the option premiums will again be worth selling. The weekly premiums are much lower than they were a couple of weeks ago and if the price doesn’t move much in the next couple of weeks, look for a sharp move higher to reestablish the needed IV levels to profitably sell options.
The next level is unknown because of the lack of history with weekly options. I will guarantee you the move up will be once again be pinned to a strike price for a number of weeks after the initial move. The good news is the stock will move higher. If you are selling options, this is a goldmine. Wait for it. It will happen!
As long as there is a huge incentive to pin the stock price because of high option premiums, this puppy is going nowhere. However, the premiums have been shrinking so the option sellers will eventually allow the stock to move to a higher level so they can simply repeat the process for a few weeks. The weekly option premiums have changed a lot of investing strategies. I am no exception to that fact. Remember, the call sellers are bullish or they wouldn’t be holding the stock themselves. To be honest, there are more factors than just Greeks and options involved here. I think options are the most limiting current factor though. People need to listen. If not, then continue being confused as to why the stock price is not moving up.
Thoughts
The Yahoo! poster was right about volatility coming back after a move, but wrong on the direction. The move was down, not up. So what’s next?
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The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs
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PUT/CALL RATIO 1.101
OVERSOLD?
Yes
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The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs
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But at least we are not the only ones who believe in AAPL: Robert Olstein Buys Baxter International Inc., Apple Inc., ...
New Purchase: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Robert Olstein initiated holdings in Apple Inc.. His purchase prices were between $235.86 and $274.074, with an estimated average price of $254.79. The impact to his portfolio due to this purchase was 1.47%. His holdings were 28,000 shares as of 06/30/2010.Apple Inc. has a market cap of $227.66 billion; its shares were traded at around $250.19 with a P/E ratio of 18.8 and P/S ratio of 5.3. Apple Inc. had an annual average earning growth of 83.1% over the past 5 years.
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AAPL green in a red market….. strange… is it max pain effect or Munster effect?
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260 Pin is still a long way to go, Short squeeze is on !
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Set up for Friday’s close @ $250.
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“Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
- Jimi Hendrix -
IMO Weekly at 260 and Monthly (expiring next Friday) max pain at 250 ?
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AAPL green in a red market….. strange… is it max pain effect or Munster effect?
This market is being manipulated. We are down spectacularly on the silliest possible trailing and seasonal indicators. Investors who are on the edge of their seats and stampeding to and fro are being fed news that is designed to have an effect. Think about it.
We heard about bank repossessions. If bank repossessions are up right now it means that the owners of those properties started defaulting about 12 months ago. It takes that long for a foreclosure to work through. All the present numbers tell us is that things used to be bad about a year ago.
We heard about rising unemployment. First came the report that included a few hundred thousand census workers being laid off…duh! Today applications for jobless benefits are up minimally. Good fscking grief! What happens in late August every year? College and high school kids quit their jobs and get ready to go back to school! And then the fed (purposely?) takes these numbers and interprets them to mean a slower recovery. Either this is purposeful manipulation or monumental stupidity. Take your pick.
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August Max Pain is now at $250. My, what a coincidence!
Monthly!
