NPD data for July
Via Barclays Ben Reitzes
PC Industry Units Grow 11% Y/Y in July; iPads NOT Included: On Monday after the close, NPD released US Data that indicated that total PC unit sales grew 11% y/y in July (vs. +12% y/y in June and +16% y/y in May). While many likely expected a steeper deceleration in y/y growth we would note that July 2009 provided an easier compare. Unit growth y/y was +13% in July 2009 vs. 20%+ y/y growth rates in both June 2009 and September 2009. We also note that the PC data does NOT include Apple’s iPad unit shipments, which had been selling at about a 1 million per month pace in April, May and June globally. Unit shipments in the “Subnotebook” category grew 20% y/y in July following two straight months of declines (-19% y/y in June and -3% y/y in May) as the subnotebook ASP hit $348 in July down from $372 last month and $376 a year ago. Total PC ASPs were flat y/y in July (vs. +1% y/y in June) as netbook momentum has faded. Total PC dollar sales grew 12% y/y in July vs. +13% y/y in June. We still believe that the iPad is cannibalizing notebook sales a bit.
Mac Units Grow 15% Y/Y; Good Trend But Likely a Little Below Expectations: NPD US data indicated that Mac units grew 15% y/y in July following +11% y/y in June and +35% y/y in May. While Mac y/y growth accelerated in July, we believe a better growth rate was expected given June had a particularly tough compare (Apple launched new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air products on 6/8/09). We note that Apple launched new Mac Mini’s on 6/15 and new iMacs and Mac Pros in late July (7/27) which should help support August results. NPD shows Mac ASPs down 3% y/y (overall Mac ASP is about $1,347 in July vs. just $718 for the average PC). Dollar sales for Macs were up 11% y/y in July (+7% y/y in June) vs. market growth of 12%. Apple held 15% unit share (flat y/y) and 29% value share (flat y/y) in July. We currently estimate Mac unit growth of 23% y/y for C3Q, which could still prove conservative. Our checks show Mac momentum is picking up into the back to school season with more popularity on college campuses vs. last year. While the iPad is likely cannibalizing some notebook PC sales ($700 and below), we do not believe Mac sales are impacted at this time (Mac portables list at $999 and above).
iPod Units Flat Y/Y in July; Better Results than Expected: NPD US Data indicated that iPod units were flat y/y in July following declines of 6% y/y in June and 10% y/y in May. Note that iPad units are NOT accounted for in these figures. On a Total Retail only basis, NPD reported iPod sales were -3% y/y in July. iPod ASPs were up 1% (vs. +2% y/y last month). Apple held 79% unit share in July (+6pts y/y) and held 93% value share (+3pts y/y). Note that Apple has not had any new iPods since mid-September of 2009; we expect an iPod product line upgrade with new iTunes services by the end of next month, including a major upgrade to the iPod touch. We currently estimate iPod unit shipments will decline 8% y/y for C3Q - we believe sales are seeing support from the company?s back to school promotion (free iPod with the purchase of a qualifying Mac).
PED is covering the topic in his latest Apple 2.0 column.
As I posted in a comment on the column that included Katy Huberty’s suggestion the iPad might be impacting Mac sales:
Before drawing any conclusions from one month’s retail data concerning Mac sales, it must be considered Apple also sells directly to educators and students through its education sales channel. Those sales are most likely not fully reflected in the NPD retail sales numbers and this is the big quarter for back-to-school sales.
Remember, too, Apple refreshed the iMac line in late July and announced an update to the Mac Pro line in late July as well. There were reports of channel clearing ahead of the iMac refresh which may have pushed some domestic Mac sales from July into August.
While it’s possible the Apple iPad has had a slight impact on demand for Macs domestically, much more data is needed before conclusions can be made. As the NPD report indicates, Mac sales continued to grow at a pace faster than overall industry.
If the Apple iPad is having a moderating influence on Mac sales, the impact wouldn’t have appeared all of a sudden in July. I suggest waiting for the August NPD retail sales numbers numbers before drawing conclusions concerning the pace of Mac sales for the quarter or the possible impact on Mac sales from the popularity of the Apple iPad.
Further, the pace of growth in overall Mac sales has been greater than the pace of sales growth in the Americas exclusive of Apple’s retail store chain for at least the past eight fiscal quarters, though the variance in growth rates has varied by quarter over that two-year period of time.