AAPL At $400 Per Share By May: Here’s Why

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    Posted: 22 August 2010 09:35 PM #31

    Mercel - 22 August 2010 11:58 PM
    omacvi - 22 August 2010 11:13 PM

    I am drinking more water these days, so no 300 predictions for 2010   from me.

    As a contrarian indicator, it doesn’t get any better than this!  $300 IS IN THE BAG! 
    :-D


    LOL, I’ll bet Chas is doubling down tomorrow. LOL  Sorry Sponge, just to easy.

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 22 August 2010 09:54 PM #32

    Hey I am not complaining.

    I just think you guys are wrong smile

         
  • Posted: 22 August 2010 10:00 PM #33

    DawnTreader - 22 August 2010 06:08 AM

    My latest missive at Eventide.

    I’ve been asked on several occasions to spell out my $400 per share price forecast for May 2011. This is pretty much as easy an explanation as I can make it. Reaching that price target does not require a significant expansion of AAPL’s currently low p/e multiple relative to growth.

    Snippet: The release of the Apple iPad, continuing strong growth in iPhone unit sales, lower effective tax rates, the boost to revenue and the influence on margins from iPad and iPhone accessories sales all combine to push AAPL to $400 per share by May 2011.

    I’m bringing the original post back for page three for convenient reader reference.

         
  • Posted: 22 August 2010 10:31 PM #34

    Grats on your very prominent position on the front page of Mac Surfer today Robert:

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    Posted: 22 August 2010 10:33 PM #35

    omacvi - 23 August 2010 12:18 AM

    ... I want a few of you to give me some predictions on where you see the overall market when aapl hits 300 and 400.

    No idea.  Indices are tumbling towards Mar 09’s low since Apr 10.  Monies are either in cash or treasuries.  Something need to happen to reverse the flow of monies.  May be market is waiting for more Republican seats.  Republicans are known to be pro-business.

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  • Posted: 22 August 2010 10:46 PM #36

    Mace - 23 August 2010 01:33 AM
    omacvi - 23 August 2010 12:18 AM

    ... I want a few of you to give me some predictions on where you see the overall market when aapl hits 300 and 400.

    No idea.  Indices are tumbling towards Mar 09’s low since Apr 10.  Monies are either in cash or treasuries.  Something need to happen to reverse the flow of monies.  May be market is waiting for more Republican seats.  Republicans are known to be pro-business.

    I think that’s a bearish characterization, but anything can happen.  However, Doug Kass, a noted bear, thinks it’s time to re-risk Watch here.

         
  • Posted: 22 August 2010 10:48 PM #37

    omacvi - 23 August 2010 12:54 AM

    I just think you guys are wrong smile

    This is code for “Back up the truck”

         
  • Posted: 22 August 2010 10:52 PM #38

    rattyuk - 23 August 2010 01:31 AM

    Grats on your very prominent position on the front page of Mac Surfer today Robert:

    Thank you. I also received a nice write-up in the top section of the site.

    I enjoy the opportunity to expand the range of discussions among members of the global Apple enthusiast community.

         
  • Posted: 22 August 2010 10:53 PM #39

    Mercel - 23 August 2010 01:46 AM
    Mace - 23 August 2010 01:33 AM
    omacvi - 23 August 2010 12:18 AM

    ... I want a few of you to give me some predictions on where you see the overall market when aapl hits 300 and 400.

    No idea.  Indices are tumbling towards Mar 09’s low since Apr 10.  Monies are either in cash or treasuries.  Something need to happen to reverse the flow of monies.  May be market is waiting for more Republican seats.  Republicans are known to be pro-business.

    I think that’s a bearish characterization, but anything can happen.  However, Doug Kass, a noted bear, thinks it’s time to re-risk Watch here.

    Doug Kass is a perma bear who occasionally goes bullish. When he does he is amazingly accurate. He’s one of my favorite indicators when he turns bullish (not so much when he’s bearish).

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    Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.

         
  • Posted: 23 August 2010 01:49 AM #40

    AAPL in particular is oversold. Should there be an overall market advance, Apple should out perform the indexes on the way up. However, even if there isn’t a sustained rally in the next few months, AAPL should rise based on earnings growth alone.

    I don’t see a further compression of the nominal p/e multiple. But compression relative to earnings growth may continue to occur. No matter. AAPL will follow earnings as earnings continue to rise.

         
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    Posted: 23 August 2010 10:46 AM #41

    mbeauch - 23 August 2010 12:35 AM
    Mercel - 22 August 2010 11:58 PM
    omacvi - 22 August 2010 11:13 PM

    I am drinking more water these days, so no 300 predictions for 2010   from me.

    As a contrarian indicator, it doesn’t get any better than this!  $300 IS IN THE BAG! 
    :-D


    LOL, I’ll bet Chas is doubling down tomorrow. LOL  Sorry Sponge, just to easy.

    Acute observation there Mark! Did buy 1000 shares back on Friday (playing around a bit with the weekly BS jobs pattern). Unfortunately I can’t claim that the Sponge spurred me on grin

         
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    Posted: 23 August 2010 12:38 PM #42

    ChasMac77 - 23 August 2010 01:46 PM

    Acute observation there Mark! Did buy 1000 shares back on Friday (playing around a bit with the weekly BS jobs pattern). Unfortunately I can’t claim that the Sponge spurred me on grin

    1000 shares?? :bugeyed:
    I suddenly feel quite small…  tongue laugh

         
  • Posted: 23 August 2010 12:43 PM #43

    Back on topic.

    We have another selloff in AAPL this morning. This only increases the tension on the “slingshot” and will add to the momentum of the move higher.

         
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    Posted: 23 August 2010 01:06 PM #44

    DawnTreader - 23 August 2010 03:43 PM

    Back on topic.

    We have another selloff in AAPL this morning. This only increases the tension on the “slingshot” and will add to the momentum of the move higher.

    I hope you are right, but I only see the slingshot shooting us to 285 before we see 265 again.  The market has made it clear since April that aapl will not outpace it as much in the second half.

         
  • Posted: 23 August 2010 01:35 PM #45

    There are a number of issues that were at play in May, June and early July:

    1. The lost (stolen) iPhone incident which created uncertainty about 3GS sales

    2. The iPhone antenna issue

    3. Apple’s decision to aggressively empty the channel ahead of the iPhone 4’s release

    As we move through the September quarter the strength of iPhone 4 sales will be revealed

    We’ll receive some form of confirmation about iPad unit sales following a number if international rollouts

    App sales should indicate the continuing growth of the iOS economy and increasing value of post-purchase revenue generation activity.