Apple 2.0: AAPL’s September Bounce

  • Posted: 27 August 2010 01:35 AM

    I missed this Apple 2.0 column posted yesterday.

    September should be a good month for AAPL due to the anticipated iPod refresh and a host of other reasons I won’t delineate now.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2010 01:54 AM #1

    We need a good September run, market willing. And I’m glad the iPod event is timed so early in September.  The iPod touch is the main star, with supporting help from revamped, square, touch-based iPod nanos.

    The best we can hope for is that iTV or Apple TV II will be a minor hit, hampered by those fossils running the content providers.  Games on Apple TV might be a good surprise.  It may not even make an appearance.  50/50 odds for me.

    A 7” iPad would be huge, or a premium HD version, camera-enabled iPad of any size would be welcome.  I give this a 20% possibility.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2010 11:43 AM #2

    I am counting on this…........  If it does not happen I will have to take a loss on the Oct contracts that I currently own :-(    A repeat of August…...  Like ground hog day ....

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2010 01:43 PM #3

    One thought on this analysis re the September bounce.

    Given that the iPod’s importance to AAPL’s top and bottom line has been in decline year over year since the introduction of the iPhone and especially the iPad, could the annual refresh of the iPod product line be seen by the market as not being as important as in previous years?  Therefore, should we be tempering our forecasts in that the scheduled event could be of less importance to the company’s stock than in previous years?

    However, clearly we don’t know what else could be in store come the announcement, so there are probably too many factors to form an opinion either way.

         
  • Posted: 27 August 2010 11:46 PM #4

    I like the concept of the new iPod Nano/Shuffle with the touch screen.  Between the iPod Touch and the depicted Nano/Shuffle, we might get more than we think, particularly how gravity-bound AAPL at $240. Read
    here!

    Next Wednesday’s event could launch AAPL’s coiled spring.

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2010 01:02 AM #5

    JonathanU - 27 August 2010 04:43 PM

    One thought on this analysis re the September bounce.

    Given that the iPod’s importance to AAPL’s top and bottom line has been in decline year over year since the introduction of the iPhone and especially the iPad, could the annual refresh of the iPod product line be seen by the market as not being as important as in previous years?  Therefore, should we be tempering our forecasts in that the scheduled event could be of less importance to the company’s stock than in previous years?

    However, clearly we don’t know what else could be in store come the announcement, so there are probably too many factors to form an opinion either way.

    What’s interesting about iPod unit sales, as I posted as a comment in the column, is that while unit sales in the June quarter were down 8%, revenue for the line rose 4%. This was due to a higher percentage of iPod touch sales in the overall sales mix.

    I expect more iOS-based devices in the new iPod product line.

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2010 12:52 PM #6

    I wonder if the Nano is being retired in favor of a lower end Touch, and the small device we’ve been seeing images of is really an updated Shuffle.

         
  • Posted: 28 August 2010 01:51 PM #7

    JonathanU - 27 August 2010 04:43 PM

    One thought on this analysis re the September bounce.

    Given that the iPod’s importance to AAPL’s top and bottom line has been in decline year over year since the introduction of the iPhone and especially the iPad, could the annual refresh of the iPod product line be seen by the market as not being as important as in previous years?  Therefore, should we be tempering our forecasts in that the scheduled event could be of less importance to the company’s stock than in previous years?

    However, clearly we don’t know what else could be in store come the announcement, so there are probably too many factors to form an opinion either way.

    The September 1 special event seems less exciting to me than September announcements in previous years.  Of more interest to me than upgrades to the iPods is announcements about sales of the iPad and the iPhone.  These could make the difference on what kind of September bounce we get.

    Also, there is enough time left in the month for another special event.  We shall see.

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