AAPL Cut to Neutral by Zacks ....

  • Posted: 26 September 2010 04:17 PM

    Who knew?

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/40635/Apple+Downgraded+to+Neutral

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2010 04:32 PM #1

    Mike in Helsinki - 26 September 2010 07:17 PM

    Who knew?

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/40635/Apple+Downgraded+to+Neutral

    Caris and Co. seem to disagree

    Caris and Co raises target price to $375 from $325

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203514704575510360340039820.html?mod=googlenews_barrons

      APPLE CONTINUES TO BE our top pick [in technology hardware], and we further increase estimates through fiscal 2011 driven by significant momentum and market-share gains/upside we see across iPhone, iPad and Mac.

      Even against a softer spending backdrop, we?ve actually seen Apple?s (ticker: AAPL) sales and supply-chain momentum accelerate, reflecting we believe an ability to effectively create its own growth through innovation (hardware + software + delivery/billing ecosystem) in a sea of otherwise commoditized hardware.

      We raise our September-quarter revenues/earnings-per-share estimates to $19.8 billion/$4.36 from $19.0 billion/$4.17 (consensus $18.6 billion /$4.00) and fiscal 2011 to $87.6 billion (up 35% year-over-year) and $19.06 (up 28% year-over-year) versus consensus $79.8 billion/$17.81.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2010 04:50 PM #2

    From zacks

    For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, Apple expects earnings to come at approximately $3.44 per share compared with $1.82 per share in the year-ago quarter, as provided during the last earnings release. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is $3.97 per share. Over the last 60 days (since the company released its third quarter results), analysts have reduced their estimates by 1 cent from $3.98 per share.


    Clients PAY zacks for this analysis. I can’t wait for Horace or Gruber to weigh in on these conclusions.

         
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    Posted: 26 September 2010 04:55 PM #3

    Mike in Helsinki - 26 September 2010 07:17 PM

    Who knew?

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/40635/Apple+Downgraded+to+Neutral

    If the article above were a high school essay it would not merit a C grade.

    European crisis? iPad supply chain constraints? Analyst expectations? Smartphone market is dominated by iPhone? Operating expenses increasing? IBM as a competitor?

    There is not a single defensible statement in the whole pile.

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  • Posted: 26 September 2010 05:52 PM #4

    Am I the only one who can’t grok these numbers.

    The #‘s do not make sense.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2010 05:55 PM #5

    asymco - 26 September 2010 07:55 PM
    Mike in Helsinki - 26 September 2010 07:17 PM

    Who knew?

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/40635/Apple+Downgraded+to+Neutral

    If the article above were a high school essay it would not merit a C grade.

    European crisis? iPad supply chain constraints? Analyst expectations? Smartphone market is dominated by iPhone? Operating expenses increasing? IBM as a competitor?

    There is not a single defensible statement in the whole pile.

    It’s amazing what can pass for “news” on the internet.  And I think you’re slighting high school students doing “C” grade work.  grin

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2010 06:10 PM #6

    Mercel - 26 September 2010 08:55 PM
    asymco - 26 September 2010 07:55 PM
    Mike in Helsinki - 26 September 2010 07:17 PM

    Who knew?

    http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/40635/Apple+Downgraded+to+Neutral

    If the article above were a high school essay it would not merit a C grade.

    European crisis? iPad supply chain constraints? Analyst expectations? Smartphone market is dominated by iPhone? Operating expenses increasing? IBM as a competitor?

    There is not a single defensible statement in the whole pile.

    It’s amazing what can pass for “news” on the internet.  And I think you’re slighting high school students doing “C” grade work.  grin

    It’s basically a rating based on the consensus estimates. Of course, it didn’t factor that analysts have yet to update their FY 2011 estimates and projections.

    Funny, I covered the same source material in a blog post two weeks ago entitled FY 2011 Analyst Estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop and came up with a vastly different conclusion.  grin

    Most analysts have yet to update their FY 2011 forecasts and to suggest that revenue and earnings growth will decelerate in FY 2011 and decelerate at the rates suggested suggests this firm might be better served doing more of its own work.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2010 06:52 PM #7

    There WILL come a time when Apple earnings will disappoint.  Personally, I believe that that time is at least a couple of years away.  Until then the no-nothing professional analysts who don’t understand Apple’s business model will snipe at them, either because they don’t have a clue or because they are taking a wild shot-in-the-dark hoping to be the first to forecast Apple’s eventual fall from grace.

    In the mean time, Apple will continue to exceed expectations until (eventually) the nay-sayers capitulate and jump on the band wagon.  This should drive the stock price up to unsustainable levels and will be a signal for more rational people to cash in.  2013?

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  • Posted: 26 September 2010 07:02 PM #8

    The high impact moment will be in 3 weeks, or so, when Apple releases earnings.  It will, cause a 2 or 3 day flurry of new estimates that will leave the average investor dumbfounded.

         
  • Posted: 26 September 2010 07:27 PM #9

    ncgo4 - 26 September 2010 10:02 PM

    The high impact moment will be in 3 weeks, or so, when Apple releases earnings.  It will, cause a 2 or 3 day flurry of new estimates that will leave the average investor dumbfounded.

    I’m counting on it! LOL

         
  • Posted: 27 September 2010 12:01 AM #10

    ncgo4 - 26 September 2010 10:02 PM

    The high impact moment will be in 3 weeks, or so, when Apple releases earnings.  It will, cause a 2 or 3 day flurry of new estimates that will leave the average investor dumbfounded.

    The moment of impact has already come and is here now. Many Analysts have already upped their forecasts this month while the stock has run 52 points (22%) in just 4 weeks. By the time earnings arrives it may be too late to catch the wave.

    Of course, we may still see follow-thru with the stock price after earnings, but be careful. The market has a way of surprising everyone. Remember January when the iPad was announced. The stock proceeded to crater for a month before the market realized… hey… Apple’s got something here.

    [ Edited: 27 September 2010 12:28 AM by bick ]      
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    Posted: 27 September 2010 12:16 AM #11

    bick - 27 September 2010 03:01 AM
    ncgo4 - 26 September 2010 10:02 PM

    The high impact moment will be in 3 weeks, or so, when Apple releases earnings.  It will, cause a 2 or 3 day flurry of new estimates that will leave the average investor dumbfounded.

    The moment of impact has already come and is here now. Many Analysts have already upped their forecasts this month while the stock has run 52 points (37%) in just 4 weeks. By the time earnings arrives it may be too late to catch the wave.

    Of course, we may still see follow-thru with the stock price after earnings, but be careful. The market has a way of surprising everyone. Remember January when the iPad was announced. The stock proceeded to crater for a month before the market realized… hey… Apple’s got something here.


    Bick, I truly don’t meant to be nit-picky, but would you recalculate your percentage. I would not want someone to actually think we have moved up 37% in the last 4 weeks.  (Est 22%)

    Thanks, M :innocent:

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    Posted: 27 September 2010 12:20 AM #12

    Yup, we’re up just about 22% from late August.  And not even up 10% from AAPL’s highs set in April and June.

    There’s a risk in every run-up.  There’s always a chance that we might, for the first time in a while, see AAPL tank after earnings.  But that’ll only happen, IMHO, if 1) the markets had an awful day or 2) the results disappointed in some way.  Let’s say it’s a 70-30 bet.  If so, I’ll take those odds, bet what I can live with, and live with whatever happens.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 27 September 2010 12:24 AM #13

    Mav - 27 September 2010 03:20 AM

    Yup, we’re up just about 22% from late August.  And not even up 10% from AAPL’s highs set in April and June.

    There’s a risk in every run-up.  There’s always a chance that we might, for the first time in a while, see AAPL tank after earnings.  But that’ll only happen, IMHO, if 1) the markets had an awful day or 2) the results disappointed in some way.  Let’s say it’s a 70-30 bet.  If so, I’ll take those odds, bet what I can live with, and live with whatever happens.

    You way of thinking reminds me of myself, are you a poker player? Just curious because “getting your money in good” is the mantra of poker players. i am not folding or checking BTW.  LOL

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Posted: 27 September 2010 12:26 AM #14

    Mav - 27 September 2010 03:20 AM

    Yup, we’re up just about 22% from late August.  And not even up 10% from AAPL’s highs set in April and June.

    Sorry. My bad. Typed 140 instead of 240. 22% it is.

         
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    Posted: 27 September 2010 12:29 AM #15

    mbeauch - 27 September 2010 03:24 AM
    Mav - 27 September 2010 03:20 AM

    Yup, we’re up just about 22% from late August.  And not even up 10% from AAPL’s highs set in April and June.

    There’s a risk in every run-up.  There’s always a chance that we might, for the first time in a while, see AAPL tank after earnings.  But that’ll only happen, IMHO, if 1) the markets had an awful day or 2) the results disappointed in some way.  Let’s say it’s a 70-30 bet.  If so, I’ll take those odds, bet what I can live with, and live with whatever happens.

    You way of thinking reminds me of myself, are you a poker player? Just curious because “getting your money in good” is the mantra of poker players. i am not folding or checking BTW.  LOL

    No, but I’m a sucker for what I think is a good bet (right or wrong) from time to time.  I also find Texas Hold ‘Em fascinating, and way too dangerous for my taste.  I might just be foolish enough to call, and raise on earnings day.  Not quite dumb enough to mortgage my hypothetical dog, neighbor’s dog, anything like that though.  Carefully measured recklessness.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.