October 18th

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    Posted: 29 September 2010 09:51 AM

    Apple plans to conduct a conference call to discuss financial results of its fourth fiscal quarter on Monday, October 18, 2010 at 2:00 p.m. PT.

    http://www.apple.com/investor/

    Next week I am coming out with my guesstimates for the quarter.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 29 September 2010 10:02 AM #1

    I bought a few Nov $300 calls as a play on earnings.  While I have no actual idea regarding numbers, I have a feeling that the iPhone 4 numbers will exceed expectations and the iPad numbers will far exceed everyone’s expectations.

    As you can see in my avatar, I’m still wearing my dunce cap for my earlier 3-5MM CY2010 unit sales prediction on the iPad.  :dunce:

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Posted: 29 September 2010 10:16 AM #2

    This seems a little earlier than usual, but might be just the way the calendar sits.  Good news, it gives the market a couple fewer days to revise estimates upward and makes it more possible that the results will maximize the “shock” factor.

    IMHO this is the announcement, if it is accompanied by reasonable guidance, that makes both the analysts and talking heads confront reality on our favorite holding.  Last Q’s “surprise” guidance, we all know was still Apple conservative.  Many of the talking heads guessed that SJ was over-stating expectations to make up for antennae gate while most of us recognized it did not represent a change in Apple’s approach at all.

    This quarter’s guidance could be even more surprising to the “expert’s” expectations.  As part of the announcement of a blow out result ($20 billion plus sales and $4.25 plus earnings) will force them to actually come to grips with the real Apple story.  I think that if these two things happen the big move may be in October not in January following next quarter’s results as most of us have been thinking.

    Just my two cents,

         
  • Posted: 29 September 2010 10:32 AM #3

    ncgo4 - 29 September 2010 01:16 PM

    As part of the announcement of a blow out result ($20 billion plus sales and $4.25 plus earnings) will force them to actually come to grips with the real Apple story.

    I am not an analyst by any means, just a guy. But I remember the professional analysts strange reaction to Apple’s guidance last quarter. Everyone knows that Apple guides ultra-conservatively, but last quarter Apple provided extremely high guidance - and this coming on the heels of Attenagate. Now what the analysts SHOULD have done was realize that this was going to be an incredibly profitable quarter. Instead they all stood around saying: “Geez, I wonder why Apple changed it’s nature and didn’t guide conservatively?”

    Duh. They DID guide conservatively. Will the analysts get it this time around?  Don’t know. Never underestimate the power of rationalization.

         
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    Posted: 29 September 2010 11:01 AM #4

    FalKirk - 29 September 2010 01:32 PM

    Will the analysts get it this time around?  Don’t know. Never underestimate the power of rationalization.

    Having watched this stock & its analysts on and off for 15+ years, the answer is flatly no, they will never get it.  They just don’t believe it.  Because they use Windows/Dell machines at work all day every day.  Even if they have an iPhone/iPad/iMac at home, they still just don’t believe that Apple can do well because it’s not at their office.

         
  • Posted: 29 September 2010 11:10 AM #5

    NatasRevol - 29 September 2010 02:01 PM
    FalKirk - 29 September 2010 01:32 PM

    Will the analysts get it this time around?  Don’t know. Never underestimate the power of rationalization.

    Having watched this stock & its analysts on and off for 15+ years, the answer is flatly no, they will never get it.  They just don’t believe it.  Because they use Windows/Dell machines at work all day every day.  Even if they have an iPhone/iPad/iMac at home, they still just don’t believe that Apple can do well because it’s not at their office.

    They won’t get it but they will have ten days to stew before MSFT announces their earnings on October 28.  Could Apple actually have higher revenue and net profit than MSFT?  Stay tuned for the next episode of Expose the Analyst, subtitled ‘The Analyst Has No Clothes’.

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    The measure of the worth of a product is how much people are willing to pay for it, not how many people will buy it if the price is low enough.

         
  • Posted: 30 September 2010 10:00 PM #6

    ncgo4 - 29 September 2010 01:16 PM

    This quarter’s guidance could be even more surprising to the “expert’s” expectations.  As part of the announcement of a blow out result ($20 billion plus sales and $4.25 plus earnings) will force them to actually come to grips with the real Apple story.  I think that if these two things happen the big move may be in October not in January following next quarter’s results as most of us have been thinking.

    Just my two cents,

    I think $20B revenues and $4.25 earnings/share will be viewed as a disappointment. Many analysts have already revised up to $19.5 billion. Whisper number is probably around $20B.

    Apple likely needs >$20.5B and $4.5/s to surprise the market. Fortunately, I think this will happen. In fact, I’m betting on it.

         
  • Posted: 30 September 2010 11:07 PM #7

    bick - 01 October 2010 01:00 AM
    ncgo4 - 29 September 2010 01:16 PM

    This quarter’s guidance could be even more surprising to the “expert’s” expectations.  As part of the announcement of a blow out result ($20 billion plus sales and $4.25 plus earnings) will force them to actually come to grips with the real Apple story.  I think that if these two things happen the big move may be in October not in January following next quarter’s results as most of us have been thinking.

    Just my two cents,

    I think $20B revenues and $4.25 earnings/share will be viewed as a disappointment. Many analysts have already revised up to $19.5 billion. Whisper number is probably around $20B.

    Apple likely needs >$20.5B and $4.5/s to surprise the market. Fortunately, I think this will happen. In fact, I’m betting on it.

    How many analysts are over 19 billion?  I have only read of Caris and Co being that high. Which ones?  What is the probability that the whisper number is over 20 billion?  Which whisper number?

    I have read one analyst whose estimate is over 19 billion.  While there may be others, many is a very imprecise term.

    I know that Dawn Trader thinks $15 for the year is in the bag.  Apple needs EPS of $4.49 in Q4 to get there.

    Per Yahoo this evening, the average estimate for EPS is 3.98, for revenue it is 18.59 billion.

    I do not know what most of us have been thinking, but I think there will be a move into the $320’s after earnings (21-22 times $15 TTM EPS).  I have been thinking that the second half of the year would be good.

    [ Edited: 30 September 2010 11:37 PM by roni ]      
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 12:00 AM #8

    roni - 01 October 2010 02:07 AM

    How many analysts are over 19 billion?  I have only read of Caris and Co being that high. Which ones?  What is the probability that the whisper number is over 20 billion?  Which whisper number?

    Analyst estimates are arguably less important than the whisper number as far as how the stock trades after earnings. I don’t know what the current whisper number is, but it’s some amount more than analyst estimates. I’m guessing at $20B? Anyone?

    I’m just saying I think we’ll need more than a measly 30 cent earnings guidance beat to surprise the market.  And I think we get it.

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 12:28 AM #9

    bick - 01 October 2010 03:00 AM
    roni - 01 October 2010 02:07 AM

    How many analysts are over 19 billion?  I have only read of Caris and Co being that high. Which ones?  What is the probability that the whisper number is over 20 billion?  Which whisper number?

    Analyst estimates are arguably less important than the whisper number as far as how the stock trades after earnings. I don’t know what the current whisper number is, but it’s some amount more than analyst estimates. I’m guessing at $20B? Anyone?

    I’m just saying I think we’ll need more than a measly 30 cent earnings guidance beat to surprise the market.  And I think we get it.

    I do not think the whisper number has been important since about 1999

    Here is what Oppie said in the last quarterly report:

    “We are targeting EPS of about $3.44.”

    I think actual will a dollar higher than that.

    Is that enough for you?

    What did you think Apple’s guidance for this quarter was?

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 12:36 AM #10

    Here is a link to Apple earning report transcripts, thanks to Deagol

    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aapl/transcripts

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 12:50 AM #11

    roni - 01 October 2010 03:28 AM

    Here is what Oppie said in the last quarterly report:

    “We are targeting EPS of about $3.44.”

    I think actual will a dollar higher than that.

    Is that enough for you?

    What did you think Apple’s guidance for this quarter was?

    Sorry. I was looking at the analyst estimates of $3.98.

    $4.25 is not a huge beat when compared with previous beats on a percentage basis.