AFB Analyst AAPL FQ4 Estimates

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    Posted: 01 October 2010 10:55 AM

    Here we go, let the games begin.

    Note that my estimates for this quarter haven’t changed much from my forecast back in July. I consider the mettle of an analyst by what he predicts will happen; not by estimating what has already occurred but hasn’t yet been measured.

     

    [Title edited by DT for clarity]

    [ Edited: 16 October 2010 12:44 PM by DawnTreader ]

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 11:04 AM #1

    Thanks for posting.  iPhone # seems high and iPad # seems low to me.  But what do I know.  rolleyes

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 11:08 AM #2

    incorrigible - 01 October 2010 02:04 PM

    Thanks for posting.  iPhone # seems high and iPad # seems low to me.  But what do I know.  rolleyes

    All we really care about is the EPS and it’s sustainability.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 11:14 AM #3

    awcabot - 01 October 2010 02:08 PM
    incorrigible - 01 October 2010 02:04 PM

    Thanks for posting.  iPhone # seems high and iPad # seems low to me.  But what do I know.  rolleyes

    All we really care about is the EPS and it’s sustainability.

    True and your number is nice.  I especially like your 2011Q1 #‘s   :bugeyed:  :drool:

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 01:51 PM #4

    Thank you for putting this out there.

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 03:12 PM #5

    None of awcabot’s projections are out of reach for this Q.  Still, I remain more conservative based on historical comparison of Apple guidance vs. actual results.

    EDIT: my technical analysis says I should not be so conservative.

    [ Edited: 02 October 2010 10:56 PM by Tetrachloride ]      
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 03:17 PM #6

    Tetrachloride - 01 October 2010 06:12 PM

    None of awcabot’s projections are out of reach for this Q.  Still, I remain more conservative based on historical comparison of Apple guidance vs. actual results.

    Do you have revenue and EPS numbers in mind?

    If so, could you share those?

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 03:21 PM #7

    $4.76 per share!  :-o

    Sly dog, you’re trying to single-handedly raise the whisper number, aren’t you?  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 03:52 PM #8

    DawnTreader - 01 October 2010 06:21 PM

    $4.76 per share!  :-o

    Sly dog, you’re trying to single-handedly raise the whisper number, aren’t you?  :wink:

    Nice to see a consensus forming.  It is surprising how close we are given our different ways of getting there (e.g. iPhone units).

    I shared my $4.79 EPS to PED yesterday.

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 04:02 PM #9

    Mercel - 01 October 2010 06:52 PM

    I shared my $4.79 EPS to PED yesterday.

    $4.79? I thought you were in the stratosphere somewhere around the low $4.80’s, orbiting us as we worked on our numbers?  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 04:07 PM #10

    I came down just 3 cents yesterday—PED has the goods.  11,600 iPhone units

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 04:09 PM #11

    Mercel - 01 October 2010 06:52 PM
    DawnTreader - 01 October 2010 06:21 PM

    $4.76 per share!  :-o

    Sly dog, you’re trying to single-handedly raise the whisper number, aren’t you?  :wink:

    Nice to see a consensus forming.  It is surprising how close we are given our different ways of getting there (e.g. iPhone units).

    I shared my $4.79 EPS to PED yesterday.

    These estimates are essentially Fermi Problems.

    A Fermi calculation that involves the multiplication of several estimated factors (e.g. the number of piano tuners in Chicago) will probably be more accurate than might be first supposed (assuming that there is no consistent bias in the estimated factors). This is because if there is no consistent bias, then there will probably (with a binomial distribution) be some factors that are estimated too high and other factors that are estimated too low, and such errors will partially cancel each other out.

    Emphasis is mine.
    Or, even a pioneering nuclear physicist can figure out these estimates!

    (Middle finger impudently raised to those who told me during my youth that financial forecasting is rocket science.)

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    Tightwad.

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 04:18 PM #12

    incorrigible - 01 October 2010 02:04 PM

    Thanks for posting.  iPhone # seems high and iPad # seems low to me.  But what do I know.  rolleyes

    I struggled with iPhones.  I hope Apple does 12M, but even that number will be less than the prior year over year increase for FQ4.  I’m at 5.9M iPads.  The Excel spreadsheet is not on my iPad to share the other details.  My tax rate is 25%, another point of difference. 

    Fermi’s principle at work… :wink:

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 04:49 PM #13

    Mercel - 01 October 2010 07:18 PM

    Fermi’s principle at work… :wink:

    Good to know since rounding factors when total revenue is in the area of $20 billion involve millions of dollars.  LOL

    I’ll have to look at where I ended up. I finished late last night and had my spouse check the formulas before hitting the send button.

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 05:17 PM #14

    projections

    various flavors.

    EDIT: improvements made on next page.

    [ Edited: 05 October 2010 10:46 AM by Tetrachloride ]      
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 08:00 PM #15

    Tetrachloride - 01 October 2010 08:17 PM

    ...projections

    various flavors.

    Tet, your year-ago revenue number (9.87) is wrong. It should be $12.207b under new GAAP. Also year-ago restated EPS is $2.77 which you’ve omitted. Finally, revenue guidance for Q1 (11.6) was under subscription accounting, which is not comparable with the reported number (15.68) under new GAAP, invalidating the 1.35 ratio (I assume you omitted the Q1 EPS guidance comparison for the same reason). A relatively minor issue is you’re using the top of the revenue and EPS guidance ranges given, which slightly skews the ratios conservatively.

    Edit: just to add that this type of analysis is fine to get a very rough idea of where things might fall, as long as you’re aware of the assumptions involved:
    - Apple management’s 3-month in advance estimates are as good (or as bad) as in previous quarters.
    - Apple management’s fudge factor on these estimates remains the same as in previous quarters.
    - YOY growth rate is maintained from previous quarters.

    [ Edited: 01 October 2010 08:18 PM by deagol ]