AFB Analyst AAPL FQ4 Estimates

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    Posted: 01 October 2010 10:12 PM #16

    I hate all this attention lol… I’ve been wondering if there’s any way I can trick them spies from whispernumber.com

    Say, I’ll publish some random stuff that anyone who pays attention would know it was a decoy? Like, 9.3M iPhones, $22.5b rev and 4.07 EPS? And then as soon as whisper.com updates it on their site I come out “nah nah nah nah” with the real numbers? lol… Damn, now I’m making everyone doubt whatever I publish!

    Ok no, I’ll post over the weekend, and it’ll be the real thing. You’ll be able to check against PED’s piecemeal releases. And let the whisperers listen in or whatever. After all, one of my goals in sharing my work is to get these numbers to the widest audience possible. Despite my dislike that those whispers are being used inconsistently by investors, that’s their fault, not the site’s or mine.

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 10:23 PM #17

    Is anyone estimating for a gain from exchange rates? Apple derives over 50% of its revenues from ROW. While Apple sets conservative exchange rates in the countries outside USA the continued depreciation of the US$ will translate into increased exchange gains. This will be the case unless Apple is overly aggressive in its exchange hedging policies which IMHO is unlikely. Apple tends to be conservative in its financial management.

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 10:52 PM #18

    deagol - 01 October 2010 11:00 PM
    Tetrachloride - 01 October 2010 08:17 PM

    ...

    Speculation galore, that’s my post smile

    I’m not yet in the hocus pocus league.  Improved imperfect pic coming up.

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 10:56 PM #19

    Details that underlie EPS $4.79 for FQ4 2010: 

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 11:05 PM #20

    2010 FY4Q projections for AAPL

         
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 11:19 PM #21

    Placing my “bet”, based on my above chart:

    Revenue: $ 21.1 billion
    EPS:  4.92

    Theory 1:  averaging the 2 revenue projections
    Theory 2:  average of 4.64 & 5.16 (4.9 but I pushed up 2 cents)

    But, would Steve & Peter O sandbag everyone so hard ?  They did the previous 2 quarters.

    [ Edited: 01 October 2010 11:29 PM by Tetrachloride ]      
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    Posted: 01 October 2010 11:43 PM #22

    roni - 01 October 2010 06:17 PM
    Tetrachloride - 01 October 2010 06:12 PM

    None of awcabot’s projections are out of reach for this Q.  Still, I remain more conservative based on historical comparison of Apple guidance vs. actual results.

    Do you have revenue and EPS numbers in mind?

    If so, could you share those?

    NOTE: my conservative feelings are not the same as the technical analysis.

         
  • Posted: 01 October 2010 11:59 PM #23

    deagol - 02 October 2010 01:12 AM

    I hate all this attention lol… I’ve been wondering if there’s any way I can trick them spies from whispernumber.com

    Say, I’ll publish some random stuff that anyone who pays attention would know it was a decoy? Like, 9.3M iPhones, $22.5b rev and 4.07 EPS? And then as soon as whisper.com updates it on their site I come out “nah nah nah nah” with the real numbers? lol… Damn, now I’m making everyone doubt whatever I publish!

    My EPS # of 4.79 is fake.  My real # is $8.34 for FQ4 2010.  :-D. Or did I get them mixed up??

         
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    Posted: 02 October 2010 01:42 AM #24

    MacOz - 02 October 2010 01:23 AM

    Is anyone estimating for a gain from exchange rates? Apple derives over 50% of its revenues from ROW. While Apple sets conservative exchange rates in the countries outside USA the continued depreciation of the US$ will translate into increased exchange gains. This will be the case unless Apple is overly aggressive in its exchange hedging policies which IMHO is unlikely. Apple tends to be conservative in its financial management.

    When you listen to the cc, pay attention to the excuses given for upside to their 35% GM guidance. They’ll mention FX as one of the main components.

         
  • Posted: 02 October 2010 02:40 AM #25

    deagol - 02 October 2010 01:12 AM

    And let the whisperers listen in or whatever. After all, one of my goals in sharing my work is to get these numbers to the widest audience possible. Despite my dislike that those whispers are being used inconsistently by investors, that’s their fault, not the site’s or mine.

    Now if we could just get Tommo to feel the same way maybe we could get an updated forecast for the next 4 years.  His is fast approaching it’s past due date. wink

    Come Back Tommo!  Your absence hasn’t changed the habits of the crooked prognosticators one damn bit.  On the other hand…,your twisted sense of humor is sorely missed on the board.

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    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Posted: 02 October 2010 03:04 AM #26

    deagol - 02 October 2010 04:42 AM
    MacOz - 02 October 2010 01:23 AM

    Is anyone estimating for a gain from exchange rates? Apple derives over 50% of its revenues from ROW. While Apple sets conservative exchange rates in the countries outside USA the continued depreciation of the US$ will translate into increased exchange gains. This will be the case unless Apple is overly aggressive in its exchange hedging policies which IMHO is unlikely. Apple tends to be conservative in its financial management.

    When you listen to the cc, pay attention to the excuses given for upside to their 35% GM guidance. They’ll mention FX as one of the main components.

    FX is a factor. I do think GM will dip a bit but nothing near what PO guided. In looking at the revenue mix among product lines, it becomes virtually impossible to move down to 35% considering high accessories sales, strong Mac sales and higher ASPs and margins on the iPad as 3G units are a bigger percentage of unit sales.

         
  • Posted: 02 October 2010 03:06 AM #27

    I’m not publishing my numbers yet. Everything’s been sent to PED. I’m already seeing some variances on unit sales per product line among the independents. This is an interesting quarter to estimate.

         
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    Posted: 02 October 2010 03:24 AM #28

    DT, obviously there’s a ton of variables at play, including the possibly higher-than-last-quarter tax rate, but do you think Apple will “deviate” from its upward-trending profitability with increasing revenue dollars this quarter?

    I’d been puzzled why this fiscal Q3, despite the very similar revs to fiscal Q1, didn’t ring up as high a profit number Q1 despite what seemed to be a more favorable margin mix and what actually was a more favorable tax rate.  The best conclusion I could draw was that Apple was being dead serious about denying the competition any price umbrella and intentionally made a mild sacrifice in bottom line.

    Recently, Q4 has been the “high profit” quarter that sets up the all-around blockbuster fiscal Q1 numbers.  Of course, this is a key time for Apple to get aggressive with iPad and continue pushing the new iPhone.  Has Apple ridden down the cost curve by now with all of those millions of iPads and iPhones, or are they still being ruthless on the “unmatchable value” concept Cook and Oppenheimer mentioned a few conference calls back, which could decrease net profit margin year over year?  More importantly for AAPL investors, if Apple did intentionally go down this path (I’d hope they can still make $4.50 EPS), will Wall Street “get it” or punish the stock?

    [ Edited: 02 October 2010 03:32 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 02 October 2010 04:49 AM #29

    Mav - 02 October 2010 06:24 AM

    DT, obviously there’s a ton of variables at play, including the possibly higher-than-last-quarter tax rate, but do you think Apple will “deviate” from its upward-trending profitability with increasing revenue dollars this quarter?

    I’d been puzzled why this fiscal Q3, despite the very similar revs to fiscal Q1, didn’t ring up as high a profit number Q1 despite what seemed to be a more favorable margin mix and what actually was a more favorable tax rate.  The best conclusion I could draw was that Apple was being dead serious about denying the competition any price umbrella and intentionally made a mild sacrifice in bottom line.

    Recently, Q4 has been the “high profit” quarter that sets up the all-around blockbuster fiscal Q1 numbers.  Of course, this is a key time for Apple to get aggressive with iPad and continue pushing the new iPhone.  Has Apple ridden down the cost curve by now with all of those millions of iPads and iPhones, or are they still being ruthless on the “unmatchable value” concept Cook and Oppenheimer mentioned a few conference calls back, which could decrease net profit margin year over year?  More importantly for AAPL investors, if Apple did intentionally go down this path (I’d hope they can still make $4.50 EPS), will Wall Street “get it” or punish the stock?

    Mav:

    You’ve posted some very good questions. I will have a 4-quarter and 8-quarter analysis published soon after the release of September quarter results.

    Actually, it was one of your AFB posts that inspired me to compose my Eventide posts titled Understanding Apple’s Success Made Easy.

    Here’s what I see for FQ4. I expect certain OpEx components to scale with revenue. This is not such a bad thing considering Apple’s already rich margins. I see a little give on GM but not nearly what Peter Oppenheimer suggested. Tax rates will be favorable, but there’s a limit to how far down they can slide. I do expect strong domestic sales of Macs in the quarter. In other words, I see correlations on certain expense components with the three previous quarters of FY 2010 and certainly more attractive than the seven-quarter averages that include FY 2009 results.

    I think the first three quarters of FY 2010 saw dramatic improvements in operating efficiencies and FQ4 results will reflect these efficiencies but not necessarily an improvement based on revenue growth alone. Analysts would be nuts to take a negative view if operating income and eps scaled with revenue rather than showing further improvements that otherwise might be expected in the absence of Apple’s decision to hold the line of product prices and push for revenue growth and market share in its emerging markets rather than attempt to maintain extraordinary high gross margins that were rich even by Apple’s standards.

    Does that answer your questions or is my response seemingly a bit cryptic?

         
  • Posted: 02 October 2010 11:04 AM #30

    From NetMarketShare data, I gather that iPhone webshare grew .08% during FQ4 2009 and .15% during FQ4 2010

    http://www.netmarketshare.com/report.aspx?qprid=11&qpcustom=iPhone&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=120&qpnp=22


    Apple sold 7.4M iPhones during FQ4 2009 .... 12M + iPhones during FQ4 2010 is a real possibility.