AFB Analyst AAPL FQ4 Estimates

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    Posted: 14 October 2010 12:35 PM #151

    adamthompson3232 - 14 October 2010 03:03 PM

    I know this has been discussed already but what do people think about fiscal Q1 guidance in light of all the additional distribution points for iPad for the holidays? It seems to me that 3M per month is a likely production rate as Apple wouldn’t add all this distribution if they didn’t have a lot more production coming online. Could Apple sell 9M iPads in the holiday quarter? If so, rest assured that Apple’s guidance is going to exceed $23B and could approach $25B. I realize this sounds a bit crazy but I just can’t see it any other way in light of what is going with iPad distribution.

    Honestly, I have a hard time seeing Apple selling *only* 9M iPads.  You know they continue to ramp up production.  There will be about 10,000 physical stores before Christmas.  That’s 300 ipads per month, per store.  Or 75 iPads a week, per store, per month.
    And that doesn’t even get started on what the online stores can do - Apple, Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, etc

         
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    Posted: 14 October 2010 03:52 PM #152

    If they sell close to 6 mil this qtr., they’re going to sell 10-11 in a very special Xmas qtr.

         
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    Posted: 14 October 2010 04:15 PM #153

    Get your numbers posted, AFB prognosticators !

    Revenues, unit sales of hardware, EPS and gross margin.

         
  • Posted: 14 October 2010 07:37 PM #154

    adamthompson3232 - 14 October 2010 03:39 PM
    NatasRevol - 14 October 2010 03:35 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 14 October 2010 03:03 PM

    I know this has been discussed already but what do people think about fiscal Q1 guidance in light of all the additional distribution points for iPad for the holidays? It seems to me that 3M per month is a likely production rate as Apple wouldn’t add all this distribution if they didn’t have a lot more production coming online. Could Apple sell 9M iPads in the holiday quarter? If so, rest assured that Apple’s guidance is going to exceed $23B and could approach $25B. I realize this sounds a bit crazy but I just can’t see it any other way in light of what is going with iPad distribution.

    Honestly, I have a hard time seeing Apple selling *only* 9M iPads.  You know they continue to ramp up production.  There will be about 10,000 physical stores before Christmas.  That’s 300 ipads per month, per store.  Or 75 iPads a week, per store, per month.
    And that doesn’t even get started on what the online stores can do - Apple, Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, etc

    I don’t see any stores but the Apple stores potentially selling up to 10 iPads per day on average for the entire quarter. I suspect Walmart, Sam’s Club, and possibly even BBY will be far lower than that. Apple.com will obviously sell a ton of them, though. I think 9M sold is the top end of possibilities and I hope we get there. Of course, I hope I’m wrong and that production and sales exceed this level but I doubt it.

    Are we talking about 9M being total sales of iPads or is this for USA sales only. I am amused how US-centric discussions are when Apple’s Revenue is more than 50% from ROW. There is Christmas in other parts of the world too. grin

         
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    Posted: 14 October 2010 08:56 PM #155

    No, I’m quite confident most all of us in AFB think in global terms.  smile

    9 million iPads sold in fiscal Q1 is already too mind-blowing to contemplate.

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    Posted: 14 October 2010 10:52 PM #156

    MacOz - 14 October 2010 10:37 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 14 October 2010 03:39 PM
    NatasRevol - 14 October 2010 03:35 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 14 October 2010 03:03 PM

    I know this has been discussed already but what do people think about fiscal Q1 guidance in light of all the additional distribution points for iPad for the holidays? It seems to me that 3M per month is a likely production rate as Apple wouldn’t add all this distribution if they didn’t have a lot more production coming online. Could Apple sell 9M iPads in the holiday quarter? If so, rest assured that Apple’s guidance is going to exceed $23B and could approach $25B. I realize this sounds a bit crazy but I just can’t see it any other way in light of what is going with iPad distribution.

    Honestly, I have a hard time seeing Apple selling *only* 9M iPads.  You know they continue to ramp up production.  There will be about 10,000 physical stores before Christmas.  That’s 300 ipads per month, per store.  Or 75 iPads a week, per store, per month.
    And that doesn’t even get started on what the online stores can do - Apple, Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, etc

    I don’t see any stores but the Apple stores potentially selling up to 10 iPads per day on average for the entire quarter. I suspect Walmart, Sam’s Club, and possibly even BBY will be far lower than that. Apple.com will obviously sell a ton of them, though. I think 9M sold is the top end of possibilities and I hope we get there. Of course, I hope I’m wrong and that production and sales exceed this level but I doubt it.

    Are we talking about 9M being total sales of iPads or is this for USA sales only. I am amused how US-centric discussions are when Apple’s Revenue is more than 50% from ROW. There is Christmas in other parts of the world too. grin

    Definitely talking total iPad sales.  However, my point was that there will be >10,000 point of sales for iPads just in the US.  I don’t see how that, combined with online and worldwide sales, would be a maximum of 9M iPads.  This is Christmas across the world.  China is selling.  Something like 20+ countries are selling.  Airprint & Airplay are selling points.  I’m honestly thinking at least 11M.  I’d bet somewhere in the middle of the quarter that some analyst says that they’re producing 4M/month, and we won’t know for how long that’s been.

         
  • Posted: 14 October 2010 11:23 PM #157

    NatasRevol - 15 October 2010 01:52 AM
    MacOz - 14 October 2010 10:37 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 14 October 2010 03:39 PM
    NatasRevol - 14 October 2010 03:35 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 14 October 2010 03:03 PM

    I know this has been discussed already but what do people think about fiscal Q1 guidance in light of all the additional distribution points for iPad for the holidays? It seems to me that 3M per month is a likely production rate as Apple wouldn’t add all this distribution if they didn’t have a lot more production coming online. Could Apple sell 9M iPads in the holiday quarter? If so, rest assured that Apple’s guidance is going to exceed $23B and could approach $25B. I realize this sounds a bit crazy but I just can’t see it any other way in light of what is going with iPad distribution.

    Honestly, I have a hard time seeing Apple selling *only* 9M iPads.  You know they continue to ramp up production.  There will be about 10,000 physical stores before Christmas.  That’s 300 ipads per month, per store.  Or 75 iPads a week, per store, per month.
    And that doesn’t even get started on what the online stores can do - Apple, Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, etc

    I don’t see any stores but the Apple stores potentially selling up to 10 iPads per day on average for the entire quarter. I suspect Walmart, Sam’s Club, and possibly even BBY will be far lower than that. Apple.com will obviously sell a ton of them, though. I think 9M sold is the top end of possibilities and I hope we get there. Of course, I hope I’m wrong and that production and sales exceed this level but I doubt it.

    Are we talking about 9M being total sales of iPads or is this for USA sales only. I am amused how US-centric discussions are when Apple’s Revenue is more than 50% from ROW. There is Christmas in other parts of the world too. grin

    Definitely talking total iPad sales.  However, my point was that there will be >10,000 point of sales for iPads just in the US.  I don’t see how that, combined with online and worldwide sales, would be a maximum of 9M iPads.  This is Christmas across the world.  China is selling.  Something like 20+ countries are selling.  Airprint & Airplay are selling points.  I’m honestly thinking at least 11M.  I’d bet somewhere in the middle of the quarter that some analyst says that they’re producing 4M/month, and we won’t know for how long that’s been.

    You get my point, however mind-boggling that figure may be. 9M should be easily doable.

         
  • Posted: 14 October 2010 11:55 PM #158

    Unique - 15 October 2010 02:47 AM

    ^... a very solid competitor product is about to launch.

    Really? I doubt it. I believe it will be DOA.

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  • Posted: 15 October 2010 12:05 AM #159

    Unique - 15 October 2010 02:47 AM

    ^I totally agree with you. Just wanted to point out a very solid competitor product is about to launch.

    Really? What product? What’s the holiday season distribution? Who is the manufacturer? What operating system?

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 12:13 AM #160

    Unique - 15 October 2010 03:08 AM

    Scroll up. Galaxy tab, android. Still competition even though ipad is gonna blow it outta the water.

    Oh, that! Running Android 2.2. Hmmm… How many will you buy?

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 12:17 AM #161

    Unique - 15 October 2010 03:14 AM

    None lol. Have to admit, the hardware is nice on it well since ipad came out months ago..

    It’s not competition, now is it?  grin

         
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    Posted: 15 October 2010 12:20 AM #162

    Unique - 15 October 2010 02:36 AM

    Side note, galaxy tab releasing soon. The hardware beats ipad, but distribution not as many countries like the ipad offers.


    Define soon.  European pricing hasn’t been announced yet, which is supposed to be first.  Though rumors are for 650-700 ?.  Or less if you’re willing to have an additional monthly fee.  US pricing and distribution still not announced.

    They can’t even yet show actual working shots on their advertising.  Specs are one thing.  Shipping them is another.

    I’m betting it’s late this year.  If it’s this year.

         
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    Posted: 15 October 2010 12:25 AM #163

    Hm…specs-wise, the Galaxy Tab (and likely every single Android-based tablet to follow) has 256MB more of RAM (Apple should address that soon), 2 cameras (iPad only “needs” FaceTime if everyone keeps clamoring for it, putting a backside camera on anything much bigger than a smartphone gets increasingly impractical), phone capabilities (uh…on a tablet?), Bluetooth 3 (I suppose Apple should keep up with the times if Bluetooth 3 is a stable standard),  GPS standard, and Adobe Flash.  iPad has likely superior battery life, more storage options, a bigger screen and a cheaper Wi-Fi only option.  But the competition should know by now that features won’t beat Apple. 

    Also…is the Galaxy Tab a smaller tablet computer or a ridiculously huge phone?  I’m not sure the Galaxy Tab knows either.  And a 7” screen vs. the iPad’s “sheet of paper” dimensions is a “bypass attack” on the iPad at best.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 01:20 AM #164

    This thread sure has wandered.

    I am revising my Mac shipment forecast.  It had been at 3.93mm.  My new and final guesstimate is 3.86mm which would be +26.5%.

    Nothing negative has occurred, I just have more information now.  This would not be a bad number, but I had wanted more.  30% growth would give us 3.97, and I am still hoping for that or more, but taking all into consideration including NPD, IDC, Gartner, incoming freshman polls, BBY, product cycles, and talking to people in stores (BBY and Apple) leads me to believe we will be short of that.

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 01:36 AM #165

    capablanca - 15 October 2010 04:20 AM

    This thread sure has wandered.

    I am revising my Mac shipment forecast.  It had been at 3.93mm.  My new and final guesstimate is 3.86mm which would be +26.5%.

    Nothing negative has occurred, I just have more information now.  This would not be a bad number, but I had wanted more.  30% growth would give us 3.97, and I am still hoping for that or more, but taking all into consideration including NPD, IDC, Gartner, incoming freshman polls, BBY, product cycles, and talking to people in stores (BBY and Apple) leads me to believe we will be short of that.

    I’m at about 3.97 and the data isn’t enough to really sway my estimate. We don’t know enterprise shipments of the Mac Pros. We’ll see Monday.