AFB Analyst AAPL FQ4 Estimates

  • Posted: 15 October 2010 01:53 AM #166

    capablanca - 15 October 2010 04:20 AM

    This thread sure has wandered.

    I am revising my Mac shipment forecast.  It had been at 3.93mm.  My new and final guesstimate is 3.86mm which would be +26.5%.

    Nothing negative has occurred, I just have more information now.  This would not be a bad number, but I had wanted more.  30% growth would give us 3.97, and I am still hoping for that or more, but taking all into consideration including NPD, IDC, Gartner, incoming freshman polls, BBY, product cycles, and talking to people in stores (BBY and Apple) leads me to believe we will be short of that.

    It looks to me like your data points are pretty US centric.  I’m looking for Mac sales in excess of 4 million primarily due to the continued rise of European and Asian sales.

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    Posted: 15 October 2010 02:45 AM #167

    BillH - 15 October 2010 04:53 AM

    It looks to me like your data points are pretty US centric.  I’m looking for Mac sales in excess of 4 million primarily due to the continued rise of European and Asian sales.

    Where do you see rise of EU and Asian sales?

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    Posted: 15 October 2010 09:52 AM #168

    adamthompson3232 - 15 October 2010 03:32 AM
    Unique - 15 October 2010 03:20 AM
    DawnTreader - 15 October 2010 03:17 AM
    Unique - 15 October 2010 03:14 AM

    None lol. Have to admit, the hardware is nice on it well since ipad came out months ago..

    It’s not competition, now is it?  grin

    The “pro” analysts are gonna make a big scene about it though.

    Just like they made a big scene about Google’s Nexus One smartphone.

    And the Palm “whatever it’s name was” phone grin

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 01:37 PM #169

    BillH - 15 October 2010 04:53 AM
    capablanca - 15 October 2010 04:20 AM

    This thread sure has wandered.

    I am revising my Mac shipment forecast.  It had been at 3.93mm.  My new and final guesstimate is 3.86mm which would be +26.5%.

    Nothing negative has occurred, I just have more information now.  This would not be a bad number, but I had wanted more.  30% growth would give us 3.97, and I am still hoping for that or more, but taking all into consideration including NPD, IDC, Gartner, incoming freshman polls, BBY, product cycles, and talking to people in stores (BBY and Apple) leads me to believe we will be short of that.

    It looks to me like your data points are pretty US centric.  I’m looking for Mac sales in excess of 4 million primarily due to the continued rise of European and Asian sales.

    Yes, I don’t fly on airlines and my plane only has a range of about 1,800 nm.  Thus my primary means of estimating Europe, Asia, and Japan is to look at the relative historical growth rates.

    An interesting side point is raised by your observation.  International sales of Mac are likely growing faster than U.S. sales.  That, coupled with the weak dollar should provide a nice boost to GM.  For example, the Aussie Dollar is now at parity; the Swiss Franc is at an all-time high; the Yen is at a 15-year high.

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 02:57 PM #170

    According to StarMine’s SmartEstimate, which places more weight on recent forecasts by top-rated analysts, Apple should post EPS of $4.17 on revenue of $19.1 billion.

    Analysts expect a gross margin of 38.2 percent. Apple’s margin has been pinched by the iPad, but falling prices for components like NAND flash, which Apple consumes in huge amounts, could help in the September quarter.

    Wall Street expects Apple to report sales of roughly 10 million iPods and 3.5 million to 4 million Mac computers.

    I think we’ll beat most of these numbers substantially.

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 03:15 PM #171

    awcabot - 15 October 2010 05:45 AM
    BillH - 15 October 2010 04:53 AM

    It looks to me like your data points are pretty US centric.  I’m looking for Mac sales in excess of 4 million primarily due to the continued rise of European and Asian sales.

    Where do you see rise of EU and Asian sales?

    This won’t be what you’re hoping for (hard data) but if I recall correctly european sales have been growing at a faster rate than they have domestically for some time.  Asian sales have historically been quite low.  My suggestion that we’ll pass 4 million is based on my belief that the dramatic rise in Apple Stores internationally is going to have a profound effect on Mac sales.

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    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 05:50 PM #172

    Back a few posts to the competitive tablet discussion…

    For anyone who’s followed aapl for 5+ years this is all just deja vu. Apple have redefined a category, built a unique ecosystem and positioned themselves to be ahead of the curve in terms of the total package for years to come. Anyone else coming in will spend massive $ on marketing and this will just serve to validate and grow the category. The category that apple controls.

    Poetry in motion.  Bring on the clones.

         
  • Posted: 15 October 2010 06:30 PM #173

    capablanca - 15 October 2010 04:37 PM
    BillH - 15 October 2010 04:53 AM
    capablanca - 15 October 2010 04:20 AM

    This thread sure has wandered.

    I am revising my Mac shipment forecast.  It had been at 3.93mm.  My new and final guesstimate is 3.86mm which would be +26.5%.

    Nothing negative has occurred, I just have more information now.  This would not be a bad number, but I had wanted more.  30% growth would give us 3.97, and I am still hoping for that or more, but taking all into consideration including NPD, IDC, Gartner, incoming freshman polls, BBY, product cycles, and talking to people in stores (BBY and Apple) leads me to believe we will be short of that.

    It looks to me like your data points are pretty US centric.  I’m looking for Mac sales in excess of 4 million primarily due to the continued rise of European and Asian sales.

    Yes, I don’t fly on airlines and my plane only has a range of about 1,800 nm.  Thus my primary means of estimating Europe, Asia, and Japan is to look at the relative historical growth rates.

    An interesting side point is raised by your observation.  International sales of Mac are likely growing faster than U.S. sales.  That, coupled with the weak dollar should provide a nice boost to GM.  For example, the Aussie Dollar is now at parity; the Swiss Franc is at an all-time high; the Yen is at a 15-year high.

    You have it all over me @ 1800 nm.  Our 3 series wagon tops out at about 500 hm.  smile  I really do believe the Regent Street store put a flag in the ground within England.  This more than anything allayed most of the question of Apples longevity and level of commitment giving confidence to all those that were inclined to purchase an Apple product.  They’ve had quite a surge in Mac sales since then and I believe we’ll see roughly the same results in China, Germany, France, Australia, etc.

    Signature

    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Posted: 16 October 2010 12:44 PM #174

    It’s time to transition to the earnings release on Monday. I’m locking this topic in favor of the comprehensive analyst comparison offered by Apple 2.0. We have several AFB analysts on the list.