AFB Analyst AAPL FQ4 Estimates

  • Posted: 03 October 2010 02:09 PM #46

    adamthompson3232 - 03 October 2010 06:15 AM

    Thank you, Mr. Deagol:)

    http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2010/10/fiscal-4q-2010-final-estimates.html

    Yes, I like Sir Deagol’s #s as well.  :wink:  We are starting to cluster in the $4.70 range.  But we await DT and others for a breakout #.  The suspense is building and Oct. 18 can’t come too soon!

         
  • Posted: 03 October 2010 02:37 PM #47

    Mav - 03 October 2010 09:17 AM

    I’ll be placing my bets on Apple getting comfortably over $20 billion and $4.50 EPS, and, whether or not Apple feels the net income numbers will have any chance of disappointing, reiterating some form of Oppenheimer’s “look out, world” comments from the fiscal Q3 2008 CC:

     

    I was thinking along similar lines.  And Apple will have more than ample opportunity to raise the bar with Holiday FQ1 2011 guidance given what it knows about its capacity to meet demand, future margins, and new product.  I believe it was Apple’s strong FQ4 2010 guidance (and a strong FQ3 quarter by any measure) that helped inoculate WS reaction from missing the whisper # at FQ3 2010. 

    With just two weeks remaining before FQ4 2010 earnings, the train toward $300 should leave the station this coming week, particularly if WS gives it at least a flat track.

    Edit: I’m a better speller than typist!

    [ Edited: 03 October 2010 04:49 PM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 03 October 2010 03:34 PM #48

    Mercel - 03 October 2010 05:09 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 03 October 2010 06:15 AM

    Thank you, Mr. Deagol:)

    http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/2010/10/fiscal-4q-2010-final-estimates.html

    Yes, I like Sir Deagol’s #s as well.  :wink:  We are starting to cluster in the $4.70 range.  But we await DT and others for a breakout #.  The suspense is building and Oct. 18 can’t come too soon!

    My numbers were sent to PED on the 30th. I’ll post them soon enough. If you’d like a “sneak peak” email me.  grin

         
  • Posted: 04 October 2010 07:46 AM #49

    Asymco’s forecasts can be found here:

    http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/04/updated-estimates-for-apples-fourth-quarter-earnings/

    Looking good!!!

         
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    Posted: 04 October 2010 08:40 AM #50

    DawnTreader - 03 October 2010 05:03 PM
    cranium - 03 October 2010 03:21 PM

    Thanks for the numbers aw! Would you share the math used to raise the iPhone ASP from $595 to $630? Thanks

    That’s an easy one. I don’t wish to speak for the amazing Alexis, but it’s an issue to address in developing numbers.

    In the revenue reporting line for iPhones (on the quarterly data summary published by Apple) the numbers include revenue generated from such items as Apple-branded and 3rd party accessories.

    The $595 ASP for the iPhone mentioned by PO during the conference call most likely does not have those items included. In my estimates (sent to PED but not yet published here), I include those additional revenue items as well to avoid confusion and to create estimates based on Apple’s reporting format.

    Yes, that pretty much sums it up. In my iPhone historic ASP, I divide the revenue by the units sold. Revenue includes accessories sold, but I assume that is a small part of the total, since I believe that most comes from devices sold and carrier agreements.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 04 October 2010 10:36 AM #51

    JonathanU - 04 October 2010 10:46 AM

    Asymco’s forecasts can be found here:

    http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/04/updated-estimates-for-apples-fourth-quarter-earnings/

    Looking good!!!

    Average of Asymco’s, Deagol’s and AWC’s numbers:

    $20.49 billion revenue
    $4.83 EPS
    4.02 million unit sales Macs
    5.28 million unit sales iPad
    12.7 million unit sales iPhones
    9.72 million unit sales iPod

         
  • Posted: 04 October 2010 11:30 AM #52

    JonathanU - 04 October 2010 10:46 AM

    Asymco’s forecasts can be found here:

    http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/04/updated-estimates-for-apples-fourth-quarter-earnings/

    Looking good!!!

    Good to see someone higher out there, by a solid margin.  And I hope Horace wins this one!  grin

         
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    Posted: 04 October 2010 02:48 PM #53

    I want to believe Apple was capable of selling 13 combined iPhones this fiscal quarter.  They could have sold 15 million into this high-demand market.  Fortunately, Apple sells a lot more than iPhones and there’s two “it” products in the lineup right now.

    Let’s see what happens.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 04 October 2010 03:15 PM #54

    Tetrachloride - 04 October 2010 01:36 PM
    JonathanU - 04 October 2010 10:46 AM

    Asymco’s forecasts can be found here:

    http://www.asymco.com/2010/10/04/updated-estimates-for-apples-fourth-quarter-earnings/

    Looking good!!!

    Average of Asymco’s, Deagol’s and AWC’s numbers:

    $20.49 billion revenue
    $4.83 EPS
    4.02 million unit sales Macs
    5.28 million unit sales iPad
    12.7 million unit sales iPhones
    9.72 million unit sales iPod

    I think Mercel posted his numbers as well.

    With a little cajoling from Mercel I might post my numbers tonight. They were sent off to PED on the 30th.

         
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    Posted: 04 October 2010 04:05 PM #55

    cajole cajole

         
  • Posted: 04 October 2010 09:35 PM #56

    I’m honored to coax, bribe, cajole and flatter you beyond all recognition to get you to post your estimates.  While I work up that speech DT, would you please POST YOUR EPS #s DAMMIT!  :-D

         
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    Posted: 04 October 2010 10:06 PM #57

    I randomly predict that DT will post the “big two” numbers of…

    $21.05B revenue

    $4.68 EPS.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 04 October 2010 10:11 PM #58

    Mav - 05 October 2010 01:06 AM

    I randomly predict that DT will post the “big two” numbers of…

    $21.05B revenue

    $4.68 EPS.

    I predict higher.  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 04 October 2010 11:54 PM #59

    Mercel - 05 October 2010 01:11 AM
    Mav - 05 October 2010 01:06 AM

    I randomly predict that DT will post the “big two” numbers of…

    $21.05B revenue

    $4.68 EPS.

    I predict higher.  :wink:

    You’re all light!

    Good stories get better, bad stories get worse. I’ll take the over.

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    Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 12:18 AM #60

    jeffi - 05 October 2010 02:54 AM

    You’re all light!

    Good stories get better, bad stories get worse. I’ll take the over.

    If one projects EPS FQ4 2010 based on an average of the EPS growth of the two most recents quarters, and applies it to EPS for FQ4 2009 ($2.77), one gets $4.99.  Can Apple do it?  Yes, but all things have to go right.