AFB Analyst AAPL FQ4 Estimates

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    Posted: 05 October 2010 12:33 AM #61

    I’m guessing DT’s numbers.  My own numbers?  I’ll get back to my napkin calculations later.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 01:08 AM #62

    Mercel - 05 October 2010 03:18 AM
    jeffi - 05 October 2010 02:54 AM

    You’re all light!

    Good stories get better, bad stories get worse. I’ll take the over.

    If one projects EPS FQ4 2010 based on an average of the EPS growth of the two most recents quarters, and applies it to EPS for FQ4 2009 ($2.77), one gets $4.99.  Can Apple do it?  Yes, but all things have to go right.

    Two obvious reasons:

    1. First full uninterrupted quarter for iPhone 4
    2. First full quarter of iPad sales (none in YOY comparison)

    It’s as simple as that. It’s essentially impossible not to exceed the prior quarters YOY earnings growth rate.

    Without any effort it’s obvious that everyone is light.

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    Posted: 05 October 2010 01:13 AM #63

    There’s reasons for that.  Aside from good ‘ol conservatism (and all estimates are above the Street), the unknown once again is iPhone. 

    We just don’t know how well Apple has been able to ramp up this completely reengineered product.  It’s clearly not in the “mass-producable” style of the iPhone 3G/S, and, we don’t know to what extent, however small, that not having a white iPhone tripped up overall production (Will we see it this year?  Who knows!)

    Without the indications of iPhone 4 production issues, everyone’s iPhone sales estimates would probably be at least half a million higher.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 01:24 AM #64

    Mav - 05 October 2010 04:13 AM

    There’s reasons for that.  Aside from good ‘ol conservatism (and all estimates are above the Street), the unknown once again is iPhone. 

    We just don’t know how well Apple has been able to ramp up this completely reengineered product.  It’s clearly not in the “mass-producable” style of the iPhone 3G/S, and, we don’t know to what extent, however small, that not having a white iPhone tripped up overall production (Will we see it this year?  Who knows!)

    Without the indications of iPhone 4 production issues, everyone’s iPhone sales estimates would probably be at least half a million higher.

    From my view, virtually every estimate of every product is light.

    How many major new stores were launched this quarter?

    How much did Apple penetrate the enterprise?

    These numbers do not adequately reflect Apple’s momentum.

    Light I say!

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    Inflation robs from the past, deflation robs from the future. Pick your poison.

         
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    Posted: 05 October 2010 01:39 AM #65

    The WHISPER number is in…$4.55!!!!!!!

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 02:18 AM #66

    Mav - 05 October 2010 01:06 AM

    I randomly predict that DT will post the “big two” numbers of…

    $21.05B revenue

    $4.68 EPS.

    That’s a darn good guess!  LOL

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 02:19 AM #67

    Mercel - 05 October 2010 01:11 AM
    Mav - 05 October 2010 01:06 AM

    I randomly predict that DT will post the “big two” numbers of…

    $21.05B revenue

    $4.68 EPS.

    I predict higher.  :wink:

    Yeah. They might just have an uncanny resemblance to the numbers I sent you last night!  LOL

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 02:20 AM #68

    Mercel - 05 October 2010 12:35 AM

    I’m honored to coax, bribe, cajole and flatter you beyond all recognition to get you to post your estimates.  While I work up that speech DT, would you please POST YOUR EPS #s DAMMIT!  :-D

    Just a hint: If I’m posting in the evening, where’s the place you might find the numbers?  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 02:45 AM #69

    DawnTreader - 05 October 2010 05:20 AM
    Mercel - 05 October 2010 12:35 AM

    I’m honored to coax, bribe, cajole and flatter you beyond all recognition to get you to post your estimates.  While I work up that speech DT, would you please POST YOUR EPS #s DAMMIT!  :-D

    Just a hint: If I’m posting in the evening, where’s the place you might find the numbers?  :wink:

    My AAPL 4th Fiscal Quarter Estimates are now posted at Eventide, of course.

         
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    Posted: 05 October 2010 03:12 AM #70

    I wasn’t too far off, except for revenues.  Another great AFB estimate.  The iPhone remains a huge unknown for me and while it probably won’t impact my investing/trading strategy going into earnings, it’ll certainly make me wonder if I made the right move until the 18th. raspberry

    $4.55 whisper number on a $3.99 consensus?  Wow.  Does that kind of differential occur much?

    Luckily, I think there’s enough in the tank for Apple to get comfortably over $4.55.  Unless there’s an iPhone ramp-up issue, the only way Apple’s getting under $4.55 is by burning extra margin in the name of market share, which I’d personally be just fine with.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 05 October 2010 11:45 AM #71

    Coincidence that all you guys are getting your estimates out and now we are seeing another big push up?

    I think not!!

    Oct 18th!! Cant wait!

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 11:45 AM #72

    No doubt we will see supply constraints diminish in the iPhone 4. I’m sure manufacturing has ramped in anticipation of the holidays. The question is pent-up demand to be satisfied.

    This makes FQ4 iPhone sales a challenge to determine. Satisfying channel demand is worth hundreds of thousands of units to bring supply to Apple’s historical levels following the drawdown of the 3GS inventory in the second half of the June quarter.

         
  • Posted: 05 October 2010 11:48 AM #73

    DawnTreader - 05 October 2010 05:45 AM
    DawnTreader - 05 October 2010 05:20 AM
    Mercel - 05 October 2010 12:35 AM

    I’m honored to coax, bribe, cajole and flatter you beyond all recognition to get you to post your estimates.  While I work up that speech DT, would you please POST YOUR EPS #s DAMMIT!  :-D

    Just a hint: If I’m posting in the evening, where’s the place you might find the numbers?  :wink:

    My AAPL 4th Fiscal Quarter Estimates are now posted at Eventide, of course.

    See what happens…

    I post my 4th quarter estimates late at night and the share price rockets in the morning. Just wait until you see my FQ1 forecasts.  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 05 October 2010 11:51 AM #74

    Summary of estimates

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/80369773@N00/5054559850/

    [ Edited: 05 October 2010 12:05 PM by Tetrachloride ]      
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    Posted: 05 October 2010 12:21 PM #75

    Tetrachloride - 05 October 2010 02:51 PM

    Summary of estimates

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/80369773@N00/5054559850/

    Need to add Mercel’s estimates to this summary.