AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 18 October 2010 09:40 PM

    Let’s start over for Tuesday.

    How will AAPL respond to earnings in early New York trading following the sell-off after hours?

    [ Edited: 23 October 2010 12:30 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 18 October 2010 09:46 PM #1

    DawnTreader - 19 October 2010 12:40 AM

    Let’s start over for Tuesday.

    How will AAPL respond to earnings in early New York trading following the sell-off after hours?

    Grrrrrr. If they read the fact that Apple “failed” despite posting 2 Billion dollars revenue higher than they promised. And 600,000 more iPhones than even the wildest “out there” guess. And the fact that they shipped more iPads than EVERYONE predicted for the year back in Jan and they haven’t yet had the busiest quarter then Apple are doomed to fail.

    Yes. I am pissed.

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    Posted: 18 October 2010 09:52 PM #2

    Its time for analyst upgrades !

    But first, those analysts will see what the AFB has to say.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2010 10:05 PM #3

    I am hoping to be wrong but I see another move down tomorrow.  I have nothing to base it on other than my observations of a fickle market over the last 7 years or so. 
    I hold a very small position in Nov calls which I will sell at the open.  The stubble I am having is with my Jan 11 calls in trying to figure how much of a recovery we will make by then.  It may be time to unload my Jan as they are all deep in the money…...  Babling now but this evenings AH rattled something loose in my brain…..

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2010 10:12 PM #4

    bilter2000 - 19 October 2010 01:05 AM

    I am hoping to be wrong but I see another move down tomorrow.  I have nothing to base it on other than my observations of a fickle market over the last 7 years or so. 
    I hold a very small position in Nov calls which I will sell at the open.  The stubble I am having is with my Jan 11 calls in trying to figure how much of a recovery we will make by then.  It may be time to unload my Jan as they are all deep in the money…...  Babling now but this evenings AH rattled something loose in my brain…..

    Spot on. Apple are such a crap company…

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    Posted: 18 October 2010 10:18 PM #5

    I have experienced the same disappointing reaction to AAPL quarterly results for many years now, yet I continue to follow the same strategy of holding through the announcement, hoping this time it will be different. That makes me certifiably insane.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2010 10:18 PM #6

    AAPL sold-off hard AH on formidable results, now 299.55 -4.83%. After the big run Friday and today, profit taking was in the cards. Earnings was a bet difficult to pass for anyone, specially those carrying on trade positions, hence the high volume these last two days.

    The pullback AH was in high volume, around 7 million shares estimating. Movement is coming to a halt now normal for after regular trading hours.

    S&P 500 futures now 1171.9, -0.53, DJI at 11008 -0.28%, both testing support. Nasdaq 100 down -1.44%.

    Market is overbought and action on IBM, VMW and AAPL was ugly. FED easing looks priced in, but with legs until November 1 and 2. The market is due for a pullback as new 52-week highs and some other technical indicators continue to show negative divergences from the prices among the major indexes. Do expect this to happen soon.

    Tomorrow a pullback is possible, maybe mitigated by good housing data, Housing Starts and Building Permits by 8:30 and BAC, BK and GS which may bring some love back to banks. However don?t expect good action into Tech Stocks. Maybe some rotation to financials? Who knows?

    Other notable earnings tomorrow JNJ, KO, HOG, UNH, GILD, EMC, ALTR, JNPR, WDC and YHOO.

    Nothing wrong here to take a rest and enjoy profits. Doing this now and on the sidelines with fresh powder for a good trading opportunity. Keeping AAPL long investment portfolio as is and cashed-in investment trading position started at SPX 1150.

         
  • Posted: 18 October 2010 10:41 PM #7

    My take is that WS responded to lower GM and lower than anticipated iPad unit sales.  Never mind the amazing iPhone unit sales—WS was looking for an excuse and found two.  That’s the only way I can make sense of things.

    If this was really buy the rumor, sell the news only, then we would have seen selling at the end.  We didn’t:  AAPL was marching upward toward the close.  The big boys are driving this bus when we travel these roads.  We’re back seat drivers and can only complain.

    In other words, AAPL needed to be perfect and it wasn’t.  The big move up in AAPL over the last month made it vulnerable.  That’s how I see it anyway.

    I’m not worried—AAPL needs to fill the gap and will do so.  I plan to reacquire what I sold today if it opens around $300-$305 and those options I sold last Thursday (?) if AAPL descends below $298 tomorrow. 

    All the new points of distribution (even if toward FQ4 end) for the iPad gave too many us a sense of undue confidence in unit sales.  4M?  I’m still perplexed.

    I would sure like to have a conversation with the accountants on their treatment of bumpers—it is MYSTIFYING they would defer ANY of this revenue to a quarter OUTSIDE of the period in which they both sold the iPhone AND delivered the bumpers.  This could have moved EPS up around 10 cents per share.  However, it wouldn’t have made a difference in AH if the iPad #s and GM are to blame. 

    FQ1 2011 will be the monster, a creation of Godzilla breeding with King Kong.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2010 11:02 PM #8

    This could be very painful for those of us with near-term bets (me!  GAH!).  But hidden in this morass of stupidity behind the AAPL dumping/profit-taking is an opportunity for the patient.  If AAPL tanks enough, I may buy a new installment of common stock. 

    Wall Street is merciless and petty, and we saw it again:

    -A lower, “disappointing” GM (entirely due to Apple’s taking an increasingly aggressive, value-added approach with iPhone and apparently iPad for now) which at 36.9%+ is still fabulous (anyone catch a glimpse of “the new Apple” in there somewhere along with SJ’s remarks?);

    -A “disappointing” iPad number (ah, remember the days that Google didn’t give any financial guidance whatsoever? Actually, does it still not give guidance even now?), despite the iPad taking up close to 100% of the tablet market that matters, and outselling the Mac is two quarters, and on a much faster initial growth tear than even the iPhone;

    -“Disappointing” holiday Q1 fiscal guidance even though we’ve played the “Oppenheimer is low on EPS” game for what seems like ages;

    -SJ got in there to boost his company, to very little immediate effect…

    Fact is, fundamentals remain ridiculously strong and as before, sanity will prevail again, if only until the next earnings release.  In all likelihood, fiscal Q1 will bring revs of $25+ billion and $5.50+ EPS.  How anyone in their right mind could see reason for alarm or P/E compression boggles the mind. 

    It’s time to shake the AAPL tree again and purge the sell-siders.  It won’t take long before AAPL goes on the warpath again, just as long as global economic conditions remain stable.  Apple will utterly destroy consensus 24% EPS growth rates next year and most all of the Wall Street analysts still don’t know it yet.

    [ Edited: 18 October 2010 11:12 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2010 11:10 PM #9

    DawnTreader - 19 October 2010 12:40 AM

    Let’s start over for Tuesday.

    How will AAPL respond to earnings in early New York trading following the sell-off after hours?

    *raises hand* Well I’m here in New York, and sure ready to buy anything below $300 in the AM!

    I don’t want to sell my Jan calls yet since I think there’s a good chance this will start to creep back up. In fact, we might have our earliest chance this Wednesday following the Mac event.

    Honestly, if we were below $300 before earnings, it would shoot up. Funny how it all works, isn’t it.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2010 11:16 PM #10

    I was half-right (and of course, half-wrong).  It’s maddening, but I’ll live.  If it comes to it, I’ll have to take some loss against gains.  Oh well, less taxes to pay!  Sigh.

    Just putting it out there:  I like to believe the AFB philosophy is to cheer on our successes and, if you feel so inclined, to commiserate at times of our hopefully occasional losses.  Always looking upward.  I feel kinda stupid right now, but still standing relatively tall despite the impending near-term haircut.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 18 October 2010 11:53 PM #11

    Should I read something into this?

    For people with way more knowledge then me….

    If I look at the AH trade I see a trade for 43363 share at 16:49 for 300$ that bring the share from 317,90$ to 300,00$.

    Could it be one seller that basically brought down the $$ of she share?

    Here

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2010 12:04 AM #12

    michelc - 19 October 2010 02:53 AM

    Should I read something into this?

    For people with way more knowledge then me….

    If I look at the AH trade I see a trade for 43363 share at 16:49 for 300$ that bring the share from 317,90$ to 300,00$.

    Could it be one seller that basically brought down the $$ of she share?

    Here

    Aapl was halted until that time because of earnings.  I think it has more to do with people taking profits after the run up to earnings.  Just my take.

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2010 12:22 AM #13

    michelc - 19 October 2010 02:53 AM

    Should I read something into this?

    For people with way more knowledge then me….

    If I look at the AH trade I see a trade for 43363 share at 16:49 for 300$ that bring the share from 317,90$ to 300,00$.

    Could it be one seller that basically brought down the $$ of she share?

    Here

    I don’t think so because:
    1) It’s less than 1% of total AH trading volume in AAPL (i.e. plenty of chance to restore price)
    2) Price fluctuated quite a bit in AH
    3) The AH low was much lower ($292.75)

    Like others have said:
    - Profit-taking
    - Low iPad #
    - Low(ish) GM
    - Guidance under expectations

         
  • Posted: 19 October 2010 12:32 AM #14

    Tuesday

    R4         331.23
      midpoint   328.87
    R3       326.52
      midpoint   324.16
    R2       321.81
      midpoint   320.86
    R1       319.90
      midpoint   318.50
    PP       317.10
      midpoint   316.15
    S1       315.19
      midpoint   313.79
    S2       312.39
      midpoint   310.03
    S3       307.68
      midpoint   305.32
    S4       302.97

         
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    Posted: 19 October 2010 12:38 AM #15

    Max pain for this week went up from $300 to $310, Dec. 18 starts out at $310, and Jan 2010 went up from $230 to $240 today.

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    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs