Congrats to asymco - The new king of Apple analysts
A sad paradox is that, even though the bloggers are more accurate, the Street ignores them and concentrates on the pros, thus promoting false numbers and setting inaccurate expectations and guidance, leading to a whole feedback loop of, IMO, under-performance of AAPL. But you have to go with the pros because they are, in a sense, the ones who set the tone, so to speak. Following the bloggers could thus, ironically, end up hurting an investor, since all the other lemmings don’t.
The bloggers are right, but you still can’t follow them. Kind of reminds me of,
Steve Jobs: “We’re better than you are! We have better stuff.”
Bill Gates: “You don’t get it, Steve. That doesn’t matter!”
Then again, Gates ended up being wrong, eh? Perhaps some day the bloggers will be be vindicated when AAPL trades at the right p/e. I’d settle for Amazon’s.
It’s not an either/or game. You have to follow both, and know what is more likely to be true and what is less. One must approach investing ultimately with an eye to share price. Still, the bloggers’ predictions about earnings and sales have proven to be closer to reality than the Wall Street analysts. Share price predictions are much more difficult and less investable, because the market often does it’s own thing. When the market is going crazy, knowing what the bloggers know helps us see opportunities and risks for what they are.
So, if what Apple reports for earnings matters to your AAPL investment, then you better follow the bloggers, because they give a better glimpse than the Wall Street analysts into the future of what Apple actually will report. If future sales of each product line matter to your AAPL investment, then you ignore the bloggers at your own peril. These insights don’t necessarily result in immediate share price effects, but eventually they play out in the share price too.
(And thanks, asymco!)
The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs