Apple’s FY2010: A Retrospective

  • Posted: 30 October 2010 04:58 PM

    In preparing my next set of FY2011 estimates and forecasts, I’ve posted a retrospective Apple’s FY2010 revenue and revenue growth.

    Snippet:The emergence of the Apple iPad in the revenue mix for the June and September quarters was crucial to Apple’s ability to deliver the growth numbers mentioned above. For the fiscal year iPhone unit sales grew about 90%, Mac unit sales grew about 30% and the Apple iPad (device sales and related accessories) represented 7.6% of the company’s reported revenue for the fiscal year and contributed about 11.6% of the 52% growth in revenue. This was an extraordinary outcome for a product that was in the market for only six months and for much of that time in constrained supply. Although the Apple iPod line experienced a decline of about 8.5% in unit sales in the fiscal year, revenue grew almost 2.3% due to the sales performance of the iPod touch during the 12-month period.

    I’m looking forward to tracking the dynamic nature of Apple’s revenue mix and i suspect after-purchase revenue opportunities are much of the motivation for Apple’s decision to moderate gross margins in an effort to further boost device unit sales.

         
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    Posted: 31 October 2010 12:46 AM #1

    You know I am a sucker for pretty pictures. LOL

    Nice work DT

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  • Posted: 01 November 2010 12:54 AM #2

    mbeauch - 31 October 2010 03:46 AM

    You know I am a sucker for pretty pictures. LOL

    Nice work DT

    Actually, the graph is courtesy of my wife. I’ve asked her to be the resident expert on making graphs in Numbers. I have one more to publish in an upcoming post.

         
  • Posted: 02 November 2010 12:05 AM #3

    I am intrigued Mac revenue represented 27% of the revenue total for FY2010. While that percentage may drop in FY2011, the Mac line provide a solid foundation for overall revenue growth. At 25% growth in units in FY2011, the line delivers a level of growth that the company can build upon to advance overall revenue gains via of the Apple iPad and iPhone.

    I’m looking at a revenue performance that will exceed FY2010’s 52% gain.

         
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    Posted: 02 November 2010 12:26 AM #4

    I should know not to bet against you DT, but it may take one new iPhone or iPad product to get to a $100+ billion FY ‘11.

    At the current pace and expected new product introductions, I think Apple gets closer to $95B than $100B+.  iPad 2 will be the big unknown, while iPhone will be the biggest revenue contributor.

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  • Posted: 02 November 2010 12:51 PM #5

    Mav - 02 November 2010 03:26 AM

    I should know not to bet against you DT, but it may take one new iPhone or iPad product to get to a $100+ billion FY ‘11.

    At the current pace and expected new product introductions, I think Apple gets closer to $95B than $100B+.  iPad 2 will be the big unknown, while iPhone will be the biggest revenue contributor.

    In my early FY2011 estimates and forecasts I’m already above $100 billion in revenue. I will explain in greater detail in a blog post this weekend.

         
  • Posted: 02 November 2010 11:45 PM #6

    adamthompson3232 - 02 November 2010 05:00 AM
    DawnTreader - 02 November 2010 03:05 AM

    I am intrigued Mac revenue represented 27% of the revenue total for FY2010. While that percentage may drop in FY2011, the Mac line provide a solid foundation for overall revenue growth. At 25% growth in units in FY2011, the line delivers a level of growth that the company can build upon to advance overall revenue gains via of the Apple iPad and iPhone.

    I’m looking at a revenue performance that will exceed FY2010’s 52% gain.

    I would be thrilled if we matched the 52% revenue growth but I think the possibility for better growth is definitely there depending on what happens with the iPhone and the iPad.

    I don’t have a reasonable model that suggests anything as low as 52% revenue growth. Remember, in the first two quarter of the fiscal year there are no Apple iPad contributions to revenue in the prior year comparison. Every iPad sold is a boost to revenue over the prior year.

         
  • Posted: 03 November 2010 02:38 AM #7

    at, just remember many of the tablet makers will be seeking to regain lost ground. As the iPad eats away at the netbook market some of these makers may be in for a net loss of revenue even with tablet products. In my view the Apple iPad needs to be seen as more than a tablet but as an expansion of Apple’s multi-device iOS paradigm.

    When I see a real app store AND an OS specific to tablets I’ll start thinking about the competition. But there’s nothing we’ll really see until sometime in 2011 and those tablets might just replace the same manufacturer’s notebooks that previously occupied the retail space.

         
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    Posted: 03 November 2010 12:18 PM #8

    Late January, 9 months, 1 week ago:  http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/01/29/coming-soon-4-5-million-chinese-iphones/

    Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty—a long-time Apple (AAPL) bear who seems to have switched her drink to Kool-Aid—issued an optimistic report Friday about the Chinese market for iPhones. It includes scenarios by which she sees Apple’s share price hitting $325 to $435 within a year.

         
  • Posted: 03 November 2010 02:41 PM #9

    Tetrachloride - 03 November 2010 03:18 PM

    Late January, 9 months, 1 week ago:  http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/01/29/coming-soon-4-5-million-chinese-iphones/

    Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty—a long-time Apple (AAPL) bear who seems to have switched her drink to Kool-Aid—issued an optimistic report Friday about the Chinese market for iPhones. It includes scenarios by which she sees Apple’s share price hitting $325 to $435 within a year.

    Again, I see $450 per share by this time next year.