AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 31 October 2010 09:28 PM

    Futures are green.

    Apple sues Motorola for patent infringement.

    Election news may or may not shake things this week.

    Packers win, Lions win, Favre loses.  (oops.. now how did that get in there)


    [Title edited by DT]

    [ Edited: 06 November 2010 12:20 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 31 October 2010 10:38 PM #1

    Tetra, thanks for starting the topic for the week. I was running late. You’ve got the lead post for the week. smile

         
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    Posted: 31 October 2010 11:18 PM #2

    DawnTreader - 01 November 2010 01:38 AM

    Tetra, thanks for starting the topic for the week. I was running late. You’ve got the lead post for the week. smile

    Midterm elections on Tuesday
    Fed speak on Wednesday
    Employment data later in the week

    All the nonsense from last week affecting Apple (misquoted gross margin outlooks, possible leaks on the misquote, frontrunning, overreaction to the misquote, end of month portfolio window-dressing, etc. ,etc) now leading to a possible test at 295.

    When does the waiting millions looking for the “buying opportunity” step in? :-?

    Signature

    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 01 November 2010 01:38 AM #3

    Monday

    R4       317.61
      midpoint   315.10
    R3       312.60
      midpoint   310.09
    R2       307.59
      midpoint   305.94
    R1       304.28
      midpoint   303.43
    PP       302.58
      midpoint   300.93
    S1       299.27
      midpoint   298.42
    S2       297.57
      midpoint   295.06
    S3       292.56
      midpoint   290.05
    S4       287.55

         
  • Posted: 01 November 2010 02:08 AM #4

    Red shirted ensign - 01 November 2010 02:18 AM
    DawnTreader - 01 November 2010 01:38 AM

    Tetra, thanks for starting the topic for the week. I was running late. You’ve got the lead post for the week. smile

    Midterm elections on Tuesday
    Fed speak on Wednesday
    Employment data later in the week

    All the nonsense from last week affecting Apple (misquoted gross margin outlooks, possible leaks on the misquote, frontrunning, overreaction to the misquote, end of month portfolio window-dressing, etc. ,etc) now leading to a possible test at 295.

    When does the waiting millions looking for the “buying opportunity” step in? :-?

    I marvel at the wait considering the no return on cash.

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 02:53 AM #5

    DawnTreader - 01 November 2010 05:08 AM

    I marvel at the wait considering the no return on cash.

    I wouldn’t necessarily assume that buyers at 295 have been in cash “forever”.  Some of the buyers around 295-300 are possibly like me looking to increase the positions we exited from around 310 to 319.  No one certainly buys at the low and sells at the high consistently, but for those that buy and held from December 2007 to today are sitting on an approx. 50% gain.  Respectable number, but not as impressive as possibly those that were nimble enough to get in and out at times over that same period.  I agree with some pundits that buy and “mold” is dead.

    I think it is safe to say that there are some who are absolutely sick of seeing gains wash in and out during the cycle of ups and downs with AAPL, or for any stock for that matter.

    As a final note, I have always tried to hold a core AAPL position, because the only thing worse than seeing AAPL trend down while fully invested is watching AAPL trend up with no skin in the game at all!

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 08:22 AM #6

    Good mood through the night kicked-off with data showing that the Chinese manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in six months bringing new hopes of the strength of the economic recovery. Stocks in Asia advanced nicely, even though any strength of the greenback could be a game changer. Europe is following also with gains.

    Futures on the US Indexes were also up overnight following for the start of this highly anticipated week. October finished up as a very strong month for stocks and this first day of November is reflecting high expectations.

    USDX 77.07 down -0.50% with all other major currencies showing gains, including the Yen, Euro, British Pound and Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar. Stock are still likely to move on a inverse correlation with the Dollar. Keep a close eye on it.

    S&P 500 futures 1185.40 up 0.48%. During the night traded between 1189 and 1180 after printing the best October performance since 2003. The index finished flat for the week Friday.

    miniDJI at 11,110 gaining 44 points up 0.40%. For the last week of October, the DJI lost 14.07 points down -0.1%.

    NASDAQ 100 futures advancing 0.38%. For the week the NASDAQ gained 1.1% outperforming the major indexes.

    AAPL is beginning the day at 303.25 on pre-PM after finishing Friday at $300.98. AAPL could see rebounds, but the trend is lower now.

    Today Personal Income, Personal Spending and PCE Prices-Core at 8:30 and at 10:00 ISM Index and Construction Spending.

    Starting today the FED Presidents meet on the most anticipated FOMC meeting in several years culminating Wednesday at 2:15PM when eyes of market participants will be
    squarely focused on the policy statement and its wording concerning quantitative easing. Good sense hints the FOMC will move to compromise.

    It seems that the adoption of a steady regimen of smaller doses of quantitative easing over a sustained period stands the better chance of maintaining the recent 9-1 FOMC vote totals. Fed Presidents of Kansas City and St. Louis, Mr. Hoenig and Mr. Bullard have shown their disagreeement with the Fed?s present course of action following other minor disagreements on size of easing. However all is a flip of a coin but maybe market?s expectations are not likely on an immediate large dose of the QE2 medicine.

    Tomorrow?s election will also be playing on volatility today, more as markets advance through the day.

    Expectations on employment data starting Nov 3 and culminating Nov 4 with Initial Claims and Continuing Claims and Nov 5 with Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will also help bring uncertainties on the market.

    Expect sideways movements with indexes trading on a tight range. Players continue positioning for the next couple of days on a wait and see stance. Technical conditions among the major indexes continue to point to a correction. Caution is recommended.

    Protect capital.

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 10:50 AM #7

    Stocks went off the gate on a festive mood. On what? The greenback is firming, USDX 77.255 down -0.26% and the FXE up 0.17%, losing strength.

    SPX is now 1192.12 on the way to face strong resistance at 1195 (200 week moving average), 1200 and then 1220, April highs. Testing may cause a pullback.

    DJI up 91 points up 0.82%. NDX up 0.92%

    VIX 21.31 up 0.52%.

    AAPL strongly rebounding now $305.34 up 1.46%.

    ISM index at 10:00 may give more fuel to this impeding rally or help put pressure on a pullback

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 12:08 PM #8

    After testing couple of times the SPX resistance at 1195, the market is pulling back a bit. Strength on the dollar is also helping to calm down a bit the festive mood.

    SPX 1190.26 up 0.59%.

    USDX 77.42 flat -0.05. FXE down -0.24%

    VIX falling to 21.13 -0.33%

    DJI up 75.85 points 0.66% but loosing steam

    AAPL $304.27 down from highs of $305.60 and lows of $302.20.

    Watch for cross-currents and a pull-back pressure to flat.

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 12:09 PM #9

    The rally is getting sold into as a slow morning fade on decreasing volume.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 12:18 PM #10

    DawnTreader - 01 November 2010 05:08 AM
    Red shirted ensign - 01 November 2010 02:18 AM
    DawnTreader - 01 November 2010 01:38 AM

    Tetra, thanks for starting the topic for the week. I was running late. You’ve got the lead post for the week. smile

    Midterm elections on Tuesday
    Fed speak on Wednesday
    Employment data later in the week

    All the nonsense from last week affecting Apple (misquoted gross margin outlooks, possible leaks on the misquote, frontrunning, overreaction to the misquote, end of month portfolio window-dressing, etc. ,etc) now leading to a possible test at 295.

    When does the waiting millions looking for the “buying opportunity” step in? :-?

    I marvel at the wait considering the no return on cash.

    FWIW, there is a return. Low as it is, the money on the sidelines continues to make merry and make friends.

    By way of informal poll, people in my neighborhood have significant portions of their portfolios out of equities on fears of RE hangover in the first half of 2011 (recall peak ARM reset dates are Feb-March next year and foreclosure hangover is expected to follow). We were supposed to have 3-3.5% growth this year but we’ve realized something like 1% meaning that we’re not keeping up with population growth which means more people feel broke this year than last year even as fat cats (that’d be us) see a ROI as the market has slowly recovered on the strength of earnings.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 01:05 PM #11

    Meanwhile AAPL ran back up to its descending intraday trend line (draw a line from the high at 10:05 AM to 12:02 PM) and bounced off of it.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 01:12 PM #12

    Good Morning Boys and Girls

    After seeing the sudden drop on Friday I was worried.  Then we recovered and I felt we could go higher in the next three days and bough more stock around 304.85.  then the market went south and looking at the charts I noticed we could not go over 206 which I think is important to get momentum.  So the sponge went ahead and sold again for a small profit.

    Now I have plenty of dry powder.  Could survive a small crash to 267.  I am still betting we will below 300 in the next few weeks.

    Good Luck to all

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 01:23 PM #13

    Now that the spongy-one has sold, AAPL popped above its upper trend line.

    Ask yourself why? If you cannot find a good reason then you know what to do.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 02:12 PM #14

    AAPL forms a H&S over the last few hours, right shoulder completed.  Within the next one hour, we would know whether it is a H&S or a failed H&S.  Neckline at $303.46.  Head at $304.48.  Refer to 1-minute chart.

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 01 November 2010 02:14 PM #15

    Mace - 01 November 2010 05:12 PM

    AAPL forms a H&S over the last few hours, right shoulder completed.  Within the next one hour, we would know whether it is a H&S or a failed H&S.  Neckline at $303.46.  Head at $304.48.  Refer to 1-minute chart.

    What usually happens when there is a head and shoulders?  Dandruff?