AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 09 November 2010 12:40 PM #61

    FX trading is extremely light today resulting in choppiness. Euro found resistance at 1.39 and selling begun also with continued woes with PIGS debts. Swiss Franc, Yen and Canadian Dollar all up. The reversal on the greenback sent all indexes back to down. AAPL experienced volatility but trying to recover still holding to nice gains.

    DJI -14.91 points down -0.13%

    SPX 1222.61 flat -0.05%. Back to three little duckies.

    NDX flat

    VIX 18.02 down -1.48%

    AAPL $319.57 with intraday low 319.25 and high $321.30

    Normal-moveout breakout? Looks like back to intraday sideways movement.

    Conclusions are available for discussions on an earlier post.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 01:33 PM #62

    Eric Landstrom - 09 November 2010 04:35 PM

    ... Additionally, I’m informed that 25,000,000 Americans own their RE free and clear. I don’t know what to do with this fact yet other than recognizing that my neighborhood apparently has many neighbors.

    It means there is sustainable demand for luxury and exceptionally good quality stuffs.  It means neighborhood where these Americans stay would be stable and make good RE investment.

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    Posted: 09 November 2010 01:36 PM #63

    How about that!

    China’s Dagong Downgrades U.S. to A+ on Quantitative Easing, Xinhua Says here

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 01:46 PM #64

    With 11 calendar days to expiry, the Nov 340’s can be purchased for $.37.  Nearly guaranteed to be a fool’s play, which is why I never buy these OTMs, and which is also why I have been so jealous over the last 2 months of those who did, this type of play of course can occasionally make a lot of money.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 01:53 PM #65

    Mace - 09 November 2010 05:33 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 09 November 2010 04:35 PM

    ... Additionally, I’m informed that 25,000,000 Americans own their RE free and clear. I don’t know what to do with this fact yet other than recognizing that my neighborhood apparently has many neighbors.

    It means there is sustainable demand for luxury and exceptionally good quality stuffs.  It means neighborhood where these Americans stay would be stable and make good RE investment.

    You sure? I drive an F150 and my city residence is valued at $350,000ish (two kitchens and all). With exception of my shoes, I look like a farmer.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 02:52 PM #66

    UBS take on Dagong Agency downgrade on US:

    Quote: “Chinese rating agency has downgraded the U.S. economy—due to the QE, inferring it has little interest in repaying its debt. Does China’s ministry of finance need an AAA rating to hold Treasuries and dollars? How can the government justify to the public that they are holding so many dollars when by their own analysis the U.S. has little intention of repaying? Perhaps we can see China reduce its dollar purchases? Not a chance. They will continue to recycle some of their new dollar earnings into commodities, leaving the private sector holding the dollars, but even this diversification will be minimal because they simply cannot afford to let the dollar fall; the Premier said only a few weeks ago if they were to do so, then there is no way domestic consumption could make up for exports, so a rapid rise in the Renminbi would destroy their export industry, resulting in huge layoffs and, according to the premier, social unrest. As details of the latest five-year plan leak out, it seems to focus on heavy capital spending and infrastructure as well as sucking in USD420bn of FDI, all of which seems likely to exacerbate the imbalances rather than boosting consumption.” end Quote

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 03:23 PM #67

    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 06:52 PM

    UBS take on Dagong Agency downgrade on US:

    Quote: “Chinese rating agency has downgraded the U.S. economy—due to the QE, inferring it has little interest in repaying its debt. Does China’s ministry of finance need an AAA rating to hold Treasuries and dollars? How can the government justify to the public that they are holding so many dollars when by their own analysis the U.S. has little intention of repaying? Perhaps we can see China reduce its dollar purchases? Not a chance. They will continue to recycle some of their new dollar earnings into commodities, leaving the private sector holding the dollars, but even this diversification will be minimal because they simply cannot afford to let the dollar fall; the Premier said only a few weeks ago if they were to do so, then there is no way domestic consumption could make up for exports, so a rapid rise in the Renminbi would destroy their export industry, resulting in huge layoffs and, according to the premier, social unrest. As details of the latest five-year plan leak out, it seems to focus on heavy capital spending and infrastructure as well as sucking in USD420bn of FDI, all of which seems likely to exacerbate the imbalances rather than boosting consumption.” end Quote

    Since people and governments are not rational, my take is to smile and buy more ammo.  grin

    That said, a deflationary fall increases the buying power of those with money. Another win for plutocrats!

    Back to target shooting from my driveway.

    Shoot ‘em by eric_landstrom, on Flickr

    [ Edited: 09 November 2010 03:27 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 03:48 PM #68

    Eric Landstrom - 09 November 2010 07:23 PM
    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 06:52 PM

    UBS take on Dagong Agency downgrade on US:

    Quote: “Chinese rating agency has downgraded the U.S. economy—due to the QE, inferring it has little interest in repaying its debt. Does China’s ministry of finance need an AAA rating to hold Treasuries and dollars? How can the government justify to the public that they are holding so many dollars when by their own analysis the U.S. has little intention of repaying? Perhaps we can see China reduce its dollar purchases? Not a chance. They will continue to recycle some of their new dollar earnings into commodities, leaving the private sector holding the dollars, but even this diversification will be minimal because they simply cannot afford to let the dollar fall; the Premier said only a few weeks ago if they were to do so, then there is no way domestic consumption could make up for exports, so a rapid rise in the Renminbi would destroy their export industry, resulting in huge layoffs and, according to the premier, social unrest. As details of the latest five-year plan leak out, it seems to focus on heavy capital spending and infrastructure as well as sucking in USD420bn of FDI, all of which seems likely to exacerbate the imbalances rather than boosting consumption.” end Quote

    Since people and governments are not rational, my take is to smile and buy more ammo.  grin

    That said, a deflationary fall increases the buying power of those with money. Another win for plutocrats!

    Back to target shooting from my driveway.

    Shoot ‘em by eric_landstrom, on Flickr

    Man, sometimes you give me the creeps grin . Are you the one with the 50mm sniper?

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 04:06 PM #69

    NB: Jobless claims is coming out tomorrow, not Thursday.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 04:40 PM #70

    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 07:48 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 09 November 2010 07:23 PM
    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 06:52 PM

    UBS take on Dagong Agency downgrade on US:

    Quote: “Chinese rating agency has downgraded the U.S. economy—due to the QE, inferring it has little interest in repaying its debt. Does China’s ministry of finance need an AAA rating to hold Treasuries and dollars? How can the government justify to the public that they are holding so many dollars when by their own analysis the U.S. has little intention of repaying? Perhaps we can see China reduce its dollar purchases? Not a chance. They will continue to recycle some of their new dollar earnings into commodities, leaving the private sector holding the dollars, but even this diversification will be minimal because they simply cannot afford to let the dollar fall; the Premier said only a few weeks ago if they were to do so, then there is no way domestic consumption could make up for exports, so a rapid rise in the Renminbi would destroy their export industry, resulting in huge layoffs and, according to the premier, social unrest. As details of the latest five-year plan leak out, it seems to focus on heavy capital spending and infrastructure as well as sucking in USD420bn of FDI, all of which seems likely to exacerbate the imbalances rather than boosting consumption.” end Quote

    Since people and governments are not rational, my take is to smile and buy more ammo.  grin

    That said, a deflationary fall increases the buying power of those with money. Another win for plutocrats!

    Back to target shooting from my driveway.

    Shoot ‘em by eric_landstrom, on Flickr

    Man, sometimes you give me the creeps grin . Are you the one with the 50mm sniper?

    Sniping? Although all Landstroms can hit what they aim at, we reserve targets past 900 yards to my nephew.


    l_b8ba1d9cd0104904afa1831485a5dbde-1 by eric_landstrom, on Flickr

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 04:53 PM #71

    Eric Landstrom - 09 November 2010 08:40 PM
    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 07:48 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 09 November 2010 07:23 PM
    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 06:52 PM

    UBS take on Dagong Agency downgrade on US:

    Quote: “Chinese rating agency has downgraded the U.S. economy—due to the QE, inferring it has little interest in repaying its debt. Does China’s ministry of finance need an AAA rating to hold Treasuries and dollars? How can the government justify to the public that they are holding so many dollars when by their own analysis the U.S. has little intention of repaying? Perhaps we can see China reduce its dollar purchases? Not a chance. They will continue to recycle some of their new dollar earnings into commodities, leaving the private sector holding the dollars, but even this diversification will be minimal because they simply cannot afford to let the dollar fall; the Premier said only a few weeks ago if they were to do so, then there is no way domestic consumption could make up for exports, so a rapid rise in the Renminbi would destroy their export industry, resulting in huge layoffs and, according to the premier, social unrest. As details of the latest five-year plan leak out, it seems to focus on heavy capital spending and infrastructure as well as sucking in USD420bn of FDI, all of which seems likely to exacerbate the imbalances rather than boosting consumption.” end Quote

    Since people and governments are not rational, my take is to smile and buy more ammo.  grin

    That said, a deflationary fall increases the buying power of those with money. Another win for plutocrats!

    Back to target shooting from my driveway.

    Shoot ‘em by eric_landstrom, on Flickr

    Man, sometimes you give me the creeps grin . Are you the one with the 50mm sniper?

    Sniping? Although all Landstroms can hit what they aim at, we reserve targets past 900 yards to my nephew.


    l_b8ba1d9cd0104904afa1831485a5dbde-1 by eric_landstrom, on Flickr[/quote

    M107, 50mm rifle, awesome. grin Guess the Landstroms are all well prepared, with a smile. God Bless him.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 05:21 PM #72

    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 08:53 PM

    M107, 50mm rifle, awesome. grin Guess the Landstroms are all well prepared, with a smile. God Bless him.

    It’s actually a 50 CALIBER rifle, .50” or 12.7mm. A 50mm would have about a two-inch bore and be classified as a cannon. And I’d imagine it would pack quite the recoil. Nice pic though. Wouldn’t want him pointing that at me if I were a Taliban.

    And I, for one, am “creeped out” by those who would take our guns away, not those exercising their Second Amendment rights.

    God bless America and hose who defend it.

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    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 05:24 PM #73

    BrazilNuts - 09 November 2010 04:15 PM

    Today could be another day of a sideways consolidation or normal-moveout breakout a term coined from the oil industry. Would discuss at this point what are the scenarios for a possible impeding correction. Investors may be interested on how to position for the near future. There are around 42 closing days to the end of the year on favorable seasonality for stocks.

    Opinions are welcome as others may have pieces of information that may not being taken into account in this exercise outline.

    Technicals are very overbought and on the sentiment front, it?s getting on the giddy side. There are negative divergences on price and indexes. The CBOE equity put/call ratio spent two days under 0.5 last week while the index put/call ratio has hovered just above 1.00 lately. If technicals were to play, markets should be on a more pronounced pullback.

    External conditions like mood after election and the $600 billion added liquidity are also being taken into account. Those are short term tailwinds for stocks moving higher.

    A rally rarely runs more than a couple of months without a normal 3-5% correction. Spring?s rally lasted for 52 sessions from February 8 to April 23.  The current rally is in its 50th session since the SPX had the August low and next day, on August 27 FED?s Bernanke kicked off the rally with his Jackson Hole speech on QE2.

    Then we have the death crossover of the 50 and 200 day moving averages on the SPX in July, followed three months later for a “golden” crossover. The golden cross was the one that showed more promising culminating with a new high for the year last week at 1227.08. Buyers should have jumped in as this brought in a new range for the last days and same happened to the DJI.  Volume is lower, we had only one big day after the QE2/elections announcements and instead of buying, no selling.

    Expect one of two outcomes to the indecisive short term trend we are now. The sideways movement goes for more time, working the overbought condition we are now. We have a more pronounced pullback that will give us a 3-5% correction followed by new highs to the end of the year.

    Tend to expect the first one, calling it normal-moveout breakout were shallow pullbacks are followed by sideways movements with dip buyers providing support to move back to break-even intradays. Today looks pretty much like this.

    As for AAPL, cautiously believe it ended its consolidation and without catalysts and based on fundamentals and favorable seasonality will creep higher as it is doing now. Upper Bollinger 20 still at $322.15, so lots of room to run intraday. Will wait until it breaks through $321.30, the 52 week high to feel more confident. The low volume is to be considered, but March?s rally was done in low volume and players on sideline do want to see more before jumping in.

    Everything should change if momentum fades and trend reverses, as AAPL should follow.

    And it happened. There should be plenty of interest when the markets work out its overbought/overextended condition. A whooosh could be heard when the pullback kicked in.

    DJI 11346.75 down -60.09 points or -0.53%. Dip buyers tried to recover on the last minutes. Earlier got close to three digits down.

    SPX 1213.40 down -0.81%. Still has lot of support down to 1200.

    VIX 19.09 up 4.37. Very jumpy earlier.

    USDX 77.995 up 1.08%. This sure helped pressing the market. Euro 1.3764 down -1.11%, probably the cause for spike at the greenback. All other major currencies down now. Are they pricing a better than expected employment data tomorrow or technicals working on the Euro that could go to support at 1.36?

    AAPL $316.08 after trading between $314.50 and $321.30. Volume up from yesterday, but still light at 13.5 million shares traded. AH at $316

    Tomorrow MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:00, Initial Claims, Continuing Claims Trade Balance, Export Prices ex-ag. and Import Prices ex-oil at 8:30, Crude Inventories at 10:30 and finally Treasury Budget at 14:00.

    Expect more volatility with markets still overbought and with the batch of data tomorrow. Watch the USDX for clues.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 06:08 PM #74

    Eric Landstrom - 09 November 2010 08:40 PM

    Sniping? Although all Landstroms can hit what they aim at, we reserve targets past 900 yards to my nephew.


    l_b8ba1d9cd0104904afa1831485a5dbde-1 by eric_landstrom, on Flickr

    That rifle is awesome. I have shot one and can tell you it is not for the faint of heart, but not nearly the kick you would expect. If I am not mistaken, it has a confirmed kill of 1 1/2 mile.

    Eric, have you let your hair grow out in the first picture? LOL  You should also calm the nerves of those concerned and tell them what that rifle is that she is shooting. Looks like a .22 to me. Plinkin cans I would imagine.

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  • Posted: 10 November 2010 01:05 AM #75

    [ Edited: 10 November 2010 01:11 AM by willrob ]