Uber bulls beware

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    Posted: 09 November 2010 12:50 AM #16

    mbeauch - 08 November 2010 06:02 PM
    Mace - 08 November 2010 04:59 PM

    Individual investors are wading back into the U.S. stock market.

    IMO, for the short term, this can only make the market go up. More bids, price goes up. It would be an exercise in futility to bet against the FED since one of their stated goals is to improve the equity market. It is not a matter of the market going up, it is, are you positioned in the right places to really benefit from a market move up. Just my freshly minted .01.

    Agree 100%. The article states 162bil out since Jan ‘09 and 2 bil back in. Got a long ways to go. When AAPL has a P/E of 40 or so, I’ll get worried grin

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 01:12 AM #17

    ChasMac77 - 09 November 2010 04:50 AM

    When AAPL has a P/E of 40 or so, I’ll get worried grin

    I’ll be ecstatic! LOL

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 01:23 AM #18

    Mav - 09 November 2010 05:12 AM
    ChasMac77 - 09 November 2010 04:50 AM

    When AAPL has a P/E of 40 or so, I’ll get worried grin

    I’ll be ecstatic! LOL


    I’ll be in Aruba.  tongue laugh

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 01:31 AM #19

    Apple 700 AFB Meetup:  See You in Aruba?  Intriguing.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 02:12 AM #20

    Mav - 09 November 2010 05:31 AM

    Apple 700 AFB Meetup:  See You in Aruba?  Intriguing.

    Apple at 700?  Some of you guys will own Aruba.. tongue laugh

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 07:57 AM #21

    capablanca - 09 November 2010 04:40 AM
    Eric Landstrom - 08 November 2010 07:00 PM

    [...]

    In other words, a global currency can be anything so long as all participants agree to it. However, to base a global currency on anything limited in quantity, will lead to a gradual devaluing of the global currency which is the exact problem we face right now.
    [...]


    I commend to you, Murray Rothbard’s Man Economy and State.  In it he demonstrates why a limited quantity of money (including gold) has no deleterious effect on the economy.

    Excellent choice Capablanca! Von Mises ideas reloaded. Maybe also this Hayek piece on gold published at The Economist May 11 1935 borrowed from the Ludwig Von Mises Institute website would also bring some light here

    Hayek supports Eric Bucks:

    Quote: “Many people get more conservative as they age. Hayek became more radical. Although he had favored central banking for most of his life, in the 1970s he began advocating denationalizing money. Private enterprises that issued distinct currencies, he argued, would have an incentive to maintain their currency?s purchasing power. Customers could choose from among competing currencies. Whether they would revert to a gold standard was a question that Hayek was too much of a believer in spontaneous order to predict. With the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, some economic consultants have considered Hayek?s currency system as a replacement for fixed-rate currencies.” end quote

    here

         
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    Posted: 09 November 2010 08:42 AM #22

    mbeauch - 09 November 2010 05:23 AM
    Mav - 09 November 2010 05:12 AM
    ChasMac77 - 09 November 2010 04:50 AM

    When AAPL has a P/E of 40 or so, I’ll get worried grin

    I’ll be ecstatic! LOL


    I’ll be in Aruba.  tongue laugh

    I’d love to go back, count me in!

         
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    Posted: 10 November 2010 06:22 AM #23

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/235939-derivatives-the-real-reason-bernanke-is-maintaining-low-interest-rates?source=yahoo

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 10 November 2010 07:35 AM #24

    Eric Landstrom - 10 November 2010 10:22 AM

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/235939-derivatives-the-real-reason-bernanke-is-maintaining-low-interest-rates?source=yahoo

    Rotten private money. We are still on the Big Unwind of bad debt, painted money. More reason for Eric Bucks with a touch of gold.

         
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    Posted: 10 November 2010 09:05 AM #25

    Bawk, Bawk !!! The sky is falling! Read the comments for a different perspective.

         
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    Posted: 10 November 2010 09:34 AM #26

    ChasMac77 - 10 November 2010 01:05 PM

    Bawk, Bawk !!! The sky is falling! Read the comments for a different perspective.

    Still keep my comments which is on global currency, an ongoing debate, care to explain your point? Do you really believe there is no financial imbalance? Why are Central Banks taking drastic measures to contain deflation, sovereign debt defaults and saving financial institutions? Is there an impeding currency and trade war that is to be discussed at the G-20 meeting?

    This is no chicken little stuff, but grown-up people?s discussion with arguments. Hopefully on a cordial and respectful atmosphere.

         
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    Posted: 10 November 2010 01:43 PM #27

    Brazil, I am with Chas about the article. Much of it is opinion, and baseless BS. The facts are, commerce does not happen without the banks, for this reason alone banks need to be protected. The author picked his talking points to get his message across. I give you one talking point. Lower the unemployment to 5.5% and all the rest will take care of itself.

    Here is my inflation/deflation/AAPL/taxed adjusted .021543

    If it all goes to hell, we will have greater problems than anyone can imagine. For someone to call BB a moron like the author did just shows his ignorance. IMO Bernake has done a very good job considering the mess he walked in to.

    This is also the second time recently that you have tried to instigate an argument. Chas’s comment was funny and meant to keep things in perspective. Lighten up.

    :innocent:

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    Posted: 10 November 2010 02:43 PM #28

    mbeauch - 10 November 2010 05:43 PM

    Brazil, I am with Chas about the article. Much of it is opinion, and baseless BS. The facts are, commerce does not happen without the banks, for this reason alone banks need to be protected. The author picked his talking points to get his message across. I give you one talking point. Lower the unemployment to 5.5% and all the rest will take care of itself.

    Here is my inflation/deflation/AAPL/taxed adjusted .021543

    If it all goes to hell, we will have greater problems than anyone can imagine. For someone to call BB a moron like the author did just shows his ignorance. IMO Bernake has done a very good job considering the mess he walked in to.

    This is also the second time recently that you have tried to instigate an argument. Chas’s comment was funny and meant to keep things in perspective. Lighten up.

    :innocent:

    Mark, from my perspective everybody has too much cognitive dissidence regarding the sovereign debt problem (that’s no moon, it’s a Debt Star!). If we, as a sovereign nation, continue to spend as has been proposed, then in ten years time fully one half of government spending will go toward servicing our debt. Sadly, we’ll see yield rates on our T-bills sweep upward as we’ve seen in the PIIGS countries as people lose confidence that we intend to make good on annihilating our debt. Consider that today the 30-year T-bill auction hit 4.32%, the highest since last May and with China’s downgrade of our debt, people are talking about today’s auction as the beginning of bad T-bill auctions where yields creep up from a lack of buying interest. 

    Elsewhere in the world students are rioting in Ireland over interest rates. Ever known of any kids who care or even think about the consequences of interest rates? Me neither. But along with a strong sense of entitlement, these kids suddenly care because the state is passing off onto them the high cost of servicing debt, and for their part, the kids are furious. Wait until the rest of life hits them repeatedly upside their heads, huh?

    Under Reagan the Fed raised interest rates over 1800 basis points in order to get a handle on stagflation that roared in from the seventies. Today we effectively have stagflation (continuing high unemployment paired with swelling cost-of-living expenses that stem from the rising cost of property taxes and city services to increasing energy and food expenses) but we’re keeping our effective interest rates low so as to inflate (we hope) the value of our RE. The frame of mind follows a familiar course: with inflating RE values, people will leverage their RE and spur additional commerce thereby kick-starting our economy.

    Except that if the mortgage backed bond markets are dinged from further collapse RE markets, we’ll have a new wave of “negative credit events” that will collapse our insurance and financial markets.

    Recall from my creepy credit default swap primer video that I made 26 months ago (watch from 1:15 and how traders use them at 3:10) how risk managers hedge their downside as well as their upside through trillions of derivatives.

    All to say that the author’s thesis is plausible to my mind if I were privy to all the information available to central bankers.

    [ Edited: 10 November 2010 03:13 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 10 November 2010 05:02 PM #29

    Yeah you are right, did not mean to sound aggressive with him, just enhance my perspective on significance of the debate on the issue.

    Learned the hard way government intervention can have unintended consequences. This includes the way financials (private sector) set up the latest fiasco on top of it.

    Not in line with the opinion in the article, but worried with more government intervention triggered by players and toxic assets mentioned in the article. On a global scale this time.

    Trying to make a point that a debate is awfully necessary on better global currency anchors.

    Eric already made the point above on the above and always appreciate his clear remarks.

    Would appreciate Chas opinion on this not just a dismissal of the article.

    Sorry, do not instigate arguments, just disagree with prejudice, discrimination, intolerance, you name it, and do take it personally, specially if directed to others in my presence.

    This was not the case with Chas.

    Sorry Chas grin and thank you Mark for pointing that out. wink

         
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    Posted: 10 November 2010 05:23 PM #30

    Eric, I think you hit the nail one the head. We are not privy to all the info that all the central banks are and because of this we sometimes must just trust that what they do is in our best interest. You already know how I feel about government spending so I will not turn this into a political forum. The author did make some decent points, but as most of us here have taken statistics, we also know how they can be manipulated.

    One of the results of the FED action will be a higher equity market. There is no easier way to “create” wealth than through the markets. When this wealth is created it is disbursed, taxed, rinsed and repeated. It is something so simple even I can understand it.

    Brazil, Thanks. I didn’t want to have to fly down to Brazil and rough you up. LOL Although Rio is one of the places I must visit before I expire. I had a funny one liner to insert here but even though I am laughing to myself it might lose something in translation.

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    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.