Uber bulls beware

  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 November 2010 06:12 PM #31

    mbeauch - 10 November 2010 09:23 PM

    Eric, I think you hit the nail one the head. We are not privy to all the info that all the central banks are and because of this we sometimes must just trust that what they do is in our best interest. You already know how I feel about government spending so I will not turn this into a political forum. The author did make some decent points, but as most of us here have taken statistics, we also know how they can be manipulated.

    One of the results of the FED action will be a higher equity market. There is no easier way to “create” wealth than through the markets. When this wealth is created it is disbursed, taxed, rinsed and repeated. It is something so simple even I can understand it.

    Brazil, Thanks. I didn’t want to have to fly down to Brazil and rough you up. LOL Although Rio is one of the places I must visit before I expire. I had a funny one liner to insert here but even though I am laughing to myself it might lose something in translation.

    You don?t need to fly to Brazil, even though is a very nice destination. Just come to Disney, and lovebugs will abound for you.

    You should also visit Brazil. However still getting a new jet to takes us to a short stop in MN and then Monaco.

    Translation to what? grin

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 November 2010 06:22 PM #32

    Governments are in the business of winning elections. When there are none, release only what they believe will keep their clientele happy. That is one of the dangers of placing our lives in their hands.

    Many did not notice this go through but M3 data was discontinued in March 23,2006. One measure of the money supply that includes M2, plus large time deposits, repos of maturity greater than one day at commercial banks, and institutional money market accounts.


    Why not publishing this important money supply measure, and segregating data on separate places? Were derivatives would be accounted for if it was ever considered a massive source of money supply? Why throw sand into public?s eyes? Economists can always put it back together, however demands time.

    At that time felt something was about to happen, as something was on the make and it did.

    Again, thanks Eric for the excellent macro read in a grave issue.


    Fed release on M3 here

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 November 2010 06:26 PM #33

    mbeauch - 10 November 2010 09:23 PM

    Eric, I think you hit the nail one the head. We are not privy to all the info that all the central banks are and because of this we sometimes must just trust that what they do is in our best interest. You already know how I feel about government spending so I will not turn this into a political forum. The author did make some decent points, but as most of us here have taken statistics, we also know how they can be manipulated.

    One of the results of the FED action will be a higher equity market. There is no easier way to “create” wealth than through the markets. When this wealth is created it is disbursed, taxed, rinsed and repeated. It is something so simple even I can understand it.

    Brazil, Thanks. I didn’t want to have to fly down to Brazil and rough you up. LOL Although Rio is one of the places I must visit before I expire. I had a funny one liner to insert here but even though I am laughing to myself it might lose something in translation.

    Mark, ask yourself questions like I ask myself: if we presume that our central bank makes rational choices and QE2 is their rational choice, then why was QE2 the best choice they could make? Puzzling through the pro and cons and I see the Fed attempting to put a happy face on some seriously short-sighted .gov policies that frankly (as a guy who owns more banks stocks than everybody he knows) couldn’t have been anticipated. I mean I joke about .gov making the worst choices possible but it is another thing altogether when .gov really does make the worst moves that coalesce to hinder recovery.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 November 2010 06:49 PM #34

    Hope the debate is for good as .gov has to do something constructive this time and not just more sacrifices from businesses and individuals. It was called upon by FED on its release of QE2. This discussion will affect markets. A lot of food for thought and multiple choice of a)more pain b)even more pain c)all of the above plus a lot of pain, from the other thread, thanks willrob:

    willrob - 10 November 2010 07:39 PM

    Panel Weighs Deep Cuts in Tax Breaks and Spending to Narrow Deficit

    A draft proposal to be released Wednesday by the chairmen of
    President Obama’s bipartisan commission on reducing the
    federal debt calls for deep cuts in domestic and military
    spending starting in 2012, and an overhaul of the tax code to
    raise revenue. Those changes and others would erase nearly $4
    trillion from projected deficits through 2020, the proposal
    says.

    The plan would reduce Social Security benefits to most future
    retirees—low-income people would get a higher benefit—
    and it would subject higher levels of income to payroll taxes
    to ensure Social Security’s solvency for at least the next 75
    years.

    Read More

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 November 2010 06:52 PM #35

    BrazilNuts - 10 November 2010 10:12 PM
    mbeauch - 10 November 2010 09:23 PM

    Eric, I think you hit the nail one the head. We are not privy to all the info that all the central banks are and because of this we sometimes must just trust that what they do is in our best interest. You already know how I feel about government spending so I will not turn this into a political forum. The author did make some decent points, but as most of us here have taken statistics, we also know how they can be manipulated.

    One of the results of the FED action will be a higher equity market. There is no easier way to “create” wealth than through the markets. When this wealth is created it is disbursed, taxed, rinsed and repeated. It is something so simple even I can understand it.

    Brazil, Thanks. I didn’t want to have to fly down to Brazil and rough you up. LOL Although Rio is one of the places I must visit before I expire. I had a funny one liner to insert here but even though I am laughing to myself it might lose something in translation.

    You don?t need to fly to Brazil, even though is a very nice destination. Just come to Disney, and lovebugs will abound for you.

    You should also visit Brazil. However still getting a new jet to takes us to a short stop in MN and then Monaco.

    Translation to what? grin

    HUH. I thought you were in/from Brazil? Now you have me all confused.

    You still have those lovebugs flying around? They do not get up to central Ga thank goodness.

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 November 2010 08:43 PM #36

    mbeauch - 10 November 2010 10:52 PM
    BrazilNuts - 10 November 2010 10:12 PM
    mbeauch - 10 November 2010 09:23 PM

    Eric, I think you hit the nail one the head. We are not privy to all the info that all the central banks are and because of this we sometimes must just trust that what they do is in our best interest. You already know how I feel about government spending so I will not turn this into a political forum. The author did make some decent points, but as most of us here have taken statistics, we also know how they can be manipulated.

    One of the results of the FED action will be a higher equity market. There is no easier way to “create” wealth than through the markets. When this wealth is created it is disbursed, taxed, rinsed and repeated. It is something so simple even I can understand it.

    Brazil, Thanks. I didn’t want to have to fly down to Brazil and rough you up. LOL Although Rio is one of the places I must visit before I expire. I had a funny one liner to insert here but even though I am laughing to myself it might lose something in translation.

    You don?t need to fly to Brazil, even though is a very nice destination. Just come to Disney, and lovebugs will abound for you.

    You should also visit Brazil. However still getting a new jet to takes us to a short stop in MN and then Monaco.

    Translation to what? grin

    HUH. I thought you were in/from Brazil? Now you have me all confused.

    You still have those lovebugs flying around? They do not get up to central Ga thank goodness.

    My dear Mark,

    Lovebugs are everywhere, including Air New Zealand flights. They surely are active in Central Georgia, would be surprised if they were not. wink

    Mating season for the little insects was over in October when they were flying all around in Central Florida. For the grown-ups is all over the year, 24/7.

    Could have picked UsNuts, ChinaNuts, Nuts-in-a-Box, Nuts-to-Go or any other name like Zulu, which I like. Does not mean Zulu is African though, could be or not does not matter to me. He is cool and is not essential to know his origin as for the subjects of this forum.

    Love humor and the Brazil Nut nut, hence double meaning of BrazilNuts. Do travel presently and traveled extensively to other Countries and speak read/write in several languages and very interested in different cultures.

    Crazy? Yes, very much, thank you, nuts though. Not Bolivian for sure which is the biggest exporter of the Brazil Nut, singular. Nuts? Why not.

    A Brazil Nut seed is big and when falling down can be harmful.

    My origin, location, private life, economic status and other personal data are not to be shared in a public forum, but with those considered friends and in private. Remember just joined AFB a while ago, virgin on this (oops, giving away information on sex life?). My insights and time are already being voluntarily invested here publicly for those interested in it.

    Will it make any difference to you, Eric, Mace, Mav, Zulu, any other, Moderator or member what language I speak, if I am rich, poor, male, female, gay, married, divorced, one legged, three legged (notty, notty), illiterate,PHD, JD, MBA, Catholic, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, atheist, communist, socialist, social democrat, conservative, liberal, right wing, left wing, Buffalo wings, Japanese, Israeli, Mexican, Indian, Mongolian, Bolivian, Scandinavian, Russian, African, Saudi or even Brazilian? Judge a book by its cover?

    If it does, I am on the wrong place.

    The wiki:

    The Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa) is a South American tree in the family Lecythidaceae, and also the name of the tree’s commercially harvested edible seed.

    Despite their name, the most significant exporter of Brazil nuts is not Brazil but Bolivia, where they are called almendras. In Brazil these nuts are called castanhas-do-Par? (literally “nuts from Par?”), but Acreans call them castanhas-do-Acre instead. Indigenous names include juvia in the Orinoco area, and sapucaia in the rest of Brazil. Brazil nuts were sometimes called “nigger toes”.[9] They can be seen being sold in a market under this name in a scene from the 1922 Stan Laurel film The Pest.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 November 2010 10:43 PM #37

    Good grief, and all I thought was you were in Brazil. I thought you had said you were in Brazil. Where you are from makes no difference to me.

    If you remember I told you I am from Cocoa Beach Florida. I am familiar with the lovebugs, but they are not as widespread as you think. I have never seen a pair of lovebugs around here. If you don’t believe me;

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lovebugs


    I still stand by what I have said before, lovebugs are a nuisance.

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 11 November 2010 05:32 PM #38

    If you’re buffalo wing, BrazilNuts, you might have some trouble on this board.  wink

    Buffalo Wing Party, that’s fine.  But if you’re an actual buffalo wing…

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 11 November 2010 06:53 PM #39

    Mav - 11 November 2010 09:32 PM

    If you’re buffalo wing, BrazilNuts, you might have some trouble on this board.  wink

    Buffalo Wing Party, that’s fine.  But if you’re an actual buffalo wing…

     

    MMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmm, Bufalo wings. tongue laugh Cajun flavor. yummy.

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 11 November 2010 09:06 PM #40

    mbeauch - 11 November 2010 10:53 PM
    Mav - 11 November 2010 09:32 PM

    If you’re buffalo wing, BrazilNuts, you might have some trouble on this board.  wink

    Buffalo Wing Party, that’s fine.  But if you’re an actual buffalo wing…

     

    MMMMMMMMMmmmmmmmmm, Bufalo wings. tongue laugh Cajun flavor. yummy.

    How about the “Buffalo Dog” variation? A MN hot food specialty to the World. grin

    We could start a food/recipe thread.

    But before someone closes as up, back to subject. The AII report is a bit bothering on a contrarian view, however it is not forward looking as the latest shake ups are not yet expressed on the survey here

    QE2 is not expressed yet on the dollar value as it should be taking it down. Mav expressed concerns on intra. Implementation of QE2 will be in small drops, starting tomorrow and then on almost daily basis. Probably it will take a couple of POMO 2.0 days to bring up the effect. Nevertheless the cheer size of QE2 at $900 billion is a strong signal to bring investors out of bonds and into riskier assets. Some believe part of liquidity will go to foreign markets as “hot money”, including Chinese. Thoughts?

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 11 November 2010 09:30 PM #41

    There’s so much FUD, so many opinions and possibly (probably?) misinformation on QE2 that it’s hard for me to get a handle on what exactly is supposed to happen or the various not-so-great case scenarios.

    But in real terms, is my $1 McValue Sandwich really going to cost me $1.20 or more in less than 2 years?  More importantly, will QE2 really make stocks a happening place to be?  Just a couple of the many unknowns.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 11 November 2010 09:36 PM #42

    This seems like a pretty nice article explaining at least some of what QE2 is all about:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703805004575606262000387820.html

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 12 November 2010 01:00 AM #43

    According to this article, while insiders are selling and global markets are reversing, bullish sentiment soars! Small investor bullishness is back to 2007 levels! This is what happens around a top.

    Signature

    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 12 November 2010 01:16 AM #44

    Mace - 12 November 2010 05:00 AM

    According to this article, while insiders are selling and global markets are reversing, bullish sentiment soars! Small investor bullishness is back to 2007 levels! This is what happens around a top.


    Come back to planet Earth Mace. I do not get the bullish sentiment comment. All I read and hear is how the economy is shaky, QE2, G20, etc… not what I would call 1999 & 2007 type of bullish news. Trust me, I have my ears tuned in and eyes wide open. I do not want to start over. Capital preservation is in the back of my mind.

    Signature

    Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 12 November 2010 01:34 AM #45

    mbeauch - 12 November 2010 05:16 AM
    Mace - 12 November 2010 05:00 AM

    According to this article, while insiders are selling and global markets are reversing, bullish sentiment soars! Small investor bullishness is back to 2007 levels! This is what happens around a top.


    Come back to planet Earth Mace. I do not get the bullish sentiment comment. All I read and hear is how the economy is shaky, QE2, G20, etc… not what I would call 1999 & 2007 type of bullish news. Trust me, I have my ears tuned in and eyes wide open. I do not want to start over. Capital preservation is in the back of my mind.

    Concur. I’m feeling spooked.

    Signature

    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007