Uber bulls beware

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    Posted: 12 November 2010 01:39 AM #46

    Mace - 12 November 2010 05:00 AM

    According to this article, while insiders are selling and global markets are reversing, bullish sentiment soars! Small investor bullishness is back to 2007 levels! This is what happens around a top.

    typepad.com?  Not to say much of the reporting from many “reputable” sites is all that great, but still…

    As a certain Nut or buffalo wing likes to say, fear is your friend.  So far investing “scared” (more cautiously) has helped my portfolio go mostly in the right direction.

    And to say this a top except in the context of the mess that was the Great Recession…things are much different than before.  Danger is everywhere as far as the mood of the market goes.

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    Posted: 12 November 2010 07:36 PM #47

    Fear is your friend, complacency not.

    The fear mentioned above is for others. We want other players to fear the unknown, not us.

    At this time, would try to raise one “fear” for discussion that influenced markets today more than many others. This is a continuation of an impeding debate on global currencies, global imbalances and current FED policies, mainly QE2. Macro issues that influence investors decisions and market direction.

    What is the Chinese Government really after? What is the message they are trying to put through? Will they raise rates sooner than later? Today?s pullback had a lot to do on pricing answers after a week full of headlines on China and the G-20 summit.

    We started the last intraday note from this Friday with the thought that the whole idea of China having this kind of influence on stock and bond prices is somewhat bothersome. China choose to run a dollar peg below market value, US choose to run huge budget deficits. And here we are.

    President Barack Obama attacked China during the G-20 summit after the meeting failed to address solutions to global imbalances.  “The yuan is overvalued… and China spends enormous amounts of money intervening in the market to keep it undervalued.” he said.

    Recalling from this week, a Chinese bond rating agency, Dagong, downgraded the credit rating of U.S. Treasury debt from AA to A-plus, citing a “drastic decline of the government’s intention of debt repayment.” The Treasury market listened, and the 30-year Treasury dropped 2 points that day.

    As Minyanville Minyan Tod Harrison points out “There are no accidents, particularly when military submarines are involved. This is what I would call a “message.”

    U.S.S. Kitty Hawk and the stealthy chinese submarine

         
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    Posted: 12 November 2010 11:11 PM #48

    Brazil, you mean the one that popped up in 2006? The article is dated Nov 2007, rerun under today’s date.

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    Posted: 13 November 2010 08:12 AM #49

    mbeauch - 13 November 2010 03:11 AM

    Brazil, you mean the one that popped up in 2006? The article is dated Nov 2007, rerun under today’s date.

    Yes, Tod Harrison reminded this incident from four years ago yesterday discussing the same subject on the war for financial dominance.

    The intended surprise with the advanced sub is a good illustration that downgrading US credit, acid rhetoric against QE2, massive interventions to keep yuan undervalued and Chinese goods cheap, and last but not least, influence on bond and stock prices in the US market, carries an explicit message, or wake up call like the military operation in 2006.