Let’s Take A Look Back At The Mac’s Performance

  • Posted: 13 December 2010 12:51 AM

    I’m completing my retrospective look at Apple’s most recent eight fiscal quarters or fiscal years 2009 & 2010. I took a little time this weekend to look at the Mac’s recent unit sales success and in the context of the Mac product line’s overall contributions to Apple’s reported revenue.

    The Mac’s performance over the past year can be described as nothing but impressive. It’s only in relation to the revenue contributions of the Apple iPhone and now the Apple iPad that the Mac’s success is in any way diminished.

    Please see Let’s Take A Look Back At The Mac for more information.

    Snippet: Despite the fall in the Mac’s average selling price, the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 produced both record Mac sales of 3.885 million units and record Mac revenue of $4.870 billion.  In fiscal year 2010, revenue from Mac units sales of $17.479 billion exceeded Apple’s total revenue from all sources of $13.931 billion in fiscal year 2005, and represented about a 70% rise in Mac unit sales revenue since fiscal year 2007, just three years ago.

         
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    Posted: 13 December 2010 12:59 AM #1

    The graphs do make me think that 4.1 million Macs is in the cards.

    Looking back about 7 years, pundits used to say that the Apple product matrix was iMac, PowerMac , iBook and PowerBook.  A solid product matrix, plus iPods.  Now, the matrix is iPad, Mac, iPhone and several million iPods, not to mention iTunes Music and iTunes App Stores.

    A constellation of halo effects.

         
  • Posted: 13 December 2010 02:55 PM #2

    Tetrachloride - 13 December 2010 04:59 AM

    The graphs do make me think that 4.1 million Macs is in the cards.

    Looking back about 7 years, pundits used to say that the Apple product matrix was iMac, PowerMac , iBook and PowerBook.  A solid product matrix, plus iPods.  Now, the matrix is iPad, Mac, iPhone and several million iPods, not to mention iTunes Music and iTunes App Stores.

    A constellation of halo effects.

    I’m suggesting over 4.3 million Macs in the quartergrin

         
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    Posted: 13 December 2010 06:58 PM #3

    DawnTreader - 13 December 2010 06:55 PM
    Tetrachloride - 13 December 2010 04:59 AM

    The graphs do make me think that 4.1 million Macs is in the cards.

    Looking back about 7 years, pundits used to say that the Apple product matrix was iMac, PowerMac , iBook and PowerBook.  A solid product matrix, plus iPods.  Now, the matrix is iPad, Mac, iPhone and several million iPods, not to mention iTunes Music and iTunes App Stores.

    A constellation of halo effects.

    I’m suggesting over 4.3 million Macs in the quartergrin

    Looks like you have good company.  Gene Munster via AppleInsider

    New November domestic sales data from the NPD Group was released Monday, and analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said it shows Apple on pace to sell between 4.1 million and 4.3 million Macs in the December quarter. Early estimates have found that Apple’s U.S. sales are up 20 percent year-over-year for the first two months of the quarter.

    Munster has predicted sales of 4.2 million Macs in the quarter, and Wall Street averages are about the same. He noted that international Mac sales are growing faster than domestic, which means Apple will likely see between 22 percent and 28 percent year-over-year growth.

    Because the NPD numbers show Apple about on pace to meet expectations, Munster said he views the figures as a “neutral data point.”

    Last quarter CPU were up 17% YOY in Americas and 30% in retail, vs so we are tracking nicely to beat last quarters YOY performance.  I’m currently forecasting 4.281M so about 100K lite of your number.

         
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    Posted: 13 December 2010 09:08 PM #4

    Munster?  Sorry - brain turned off for a minute there.  I don’t hate the guy, I just can’t trust his estimates any longer.  I mean, when some of my “home game” numbers clobbered his - and he’s the paid pro - something is wrong.

    That out of the way, 4.2-4.3 million Macs now looks like a downright reasonable estimate.  Not only are we talking “only” 25-28% YOY unit growth, the MacBook Air is getting an amount of buzz I wasn’t expecting.  There’s a lot of potential for some pleasant Mac sales surprises.

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  • Posted: 14 December 2010 03:28 AM #5

    I may my Mac unit estimate on the quarter to about 4.35 million units and slightly adjust my ASPs. But I do expect close to 30% YOY sales with strong sales in Europe.

         
  • Posted: 14 December 2010 07:55 AM #6

    DawnTreader - 14 December 2010 07:28 AM

    I may my Mac unit estimate on the quarter to about 4.35 million units and slightly adjust my ASPs. But I do expect close to 30% YOY sales with strong sales in Europe.

    We need a TMO consensus thread.  My feeling is that, as a group, TMO posters are better at forecasting Apple’s performane than the professionals on Wall Sreet.

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  • Posted: 14 December 2010 11:34 AM #7

    Gregg Thurman - 14 December 2010 11:55 AM
    DawnTreader - 14 December 2010 07:28 AM

    I may my Mac unit estimate on the quarter to about 4.35 million units and slightly adjust my ASPs. But I do expect close to 30% YOY sales with strong sales in Europe.

    We need a TMO consensus thread.  My feeling is that, as a group, TMO posters are better at forecasting Apple’s performane than the professionals on Wall Sreet.

    Gregg, by the way, where’s your blog? If you don’t have one already, I suggest starting one. I’ve recommended this step to FalKirk and other AFB members who offer up analysis. It would be good to have an online repository of your views.

         
  • Posted: 14 December 2010 11:36 AM #8

    Mac unit sales should come close to the 30% average growth rate realized in FY 2010. With the addition of the refreshed MacBook Air in the line, the Mac will have an impressive unit growth quarter relative to the market and may again capture 50% or more of the growth in domestic PC sales.

         
  • Posted: 14 December 2010 11:46 AM #9

    Mav - 14 December 2010 01:08 AM

    Munster?  Sorry - brain turned off for a minute there.  I don’t hate the guy, I just can’t trust his estimates any longer.  I mean, when some of my “home game” numbers clobbered his - and he’s the paid pro - something is wrong.

    That out of the way, 4.2-4.3 million Macs now looks like a downright reasonable estimate.  Not only are we talking “only” 25-28% YOY unit growth, the MacBook Air is getting an amount of buzz I wasn’t expecting.  There’s a lot of potential for some pleasant Mac sales surprises.

    Gene’s price targets for AAPL are decent, but his EPS estimates are woefully bad.  Schizophrenic, actually.

         
  • Posted: 14 December 2010 03:46 PM #10

    DawnTreader - 14 December 2010 03:34 PM
    Gregg Thurman - 14 December 2010 11:55 AM

    We need a TMO consensus thread.  My feeling is that, as a group, TMO posters are better at forecasting Apple’s performane than the professionals on Wall Sreet.

    Gregg, by the way, where’s your blog? If you don’t have one already, I suggest starting one. I’ve recommended this step to FalKirk and other AFB members who offer up analysis. It would be good to have an online repository of your views.

    I’ve thought about doing something like that several times over the course of the last few years, but it sounds too much like work, and I don’t work anymore.  :  )

    I’m happy to post my estimates (sorry, forgot the html command to set tabs):

    Product                         ASP     Units Sold               2011/Q1
    Desktops             1,349.44     1,266,840     1,709,520,000
    Laptops               1,208.48     3,013,020     3,641,160,000
    Total CPUs         1,250.20     4,279,860     5,350,680,000
           
    iPod                         160.74     19,423,161     3,122,051,522
    iPhone/Apple TV   653.34     18,250,526   11,650,964,913
    iPad                         646.19       6,910,200     4,295,435,183
           
    Other Music Products                                   1,354,870,000
    Peripherals & Other Hdwe                               505,620,000
    Software, Services & Other                             701,720,000
           
           
    REVENUE                                                             2011/Q1
    Net Sales                                                     26,981,341,617
           
    Cost of Sales                                               16,674,881,847
           
    Gross Margin                                               10,306,459,770
           
    Research & Development                                 566,608,174
    General & Administrative                             1,915,675,255
    Total Operating Expense                             2,482,283,429
           
    Operating Income                                         7,824,176,341
           
    Other Income                                                     60,000,000
           
    Net Income                                                     7,884,176,341
    Tax Consequence                                           1,932,177,323
    After Tax Income                                           5,951,999,019
           
    Shares                                                               930,289,000
    Earnings Per Share (fiscal)                            6.398

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  • Posted: 14 December 2010 03:47 PM #11

    Mercel - 14 December 2010 03:46 PM
    Mav - 14 December 2010 01:08 AM

    Munster?  Sorry - brain turned off for a minute there.  I don’t hate the guy, I just can’t trust his estimates any longer.  I mean, when some of my “home game” numbers clobbered his - and he’s the paid pro - something is wrong.

    That out of the way, 4.2-4.3 million Macs now looks like a downright reasonable estimate.  Not only are we talking “only” 25-28% YOY unit growth, the MacBook Air is getting an amount of buzz I wasn’t expecting.  There’s a lot of potential for some pleasant Mac sales surprises.

    Gene’s price targets for AAPL are decent, but his EPS estimates are woefully bad.  Schizophrenic, actually.

    Gene is like all the others, afraid to be too high.

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    Posted: 14 December 2010 03:58 PM #12

    Greg scares me. 27 bil, come on.

    Would you please separate the ATV from iphone numbers, those two have no business together.

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  • Posted: 14 December 2010 04:31 PM #13

    mbeauch - 14 December 2010 07:58 PM

    Greg scares me. 27 bil, come on.

    Would you please separate the ATV from iphone numbers, those two have no business together.

    Except that Apple includes AppleTV sales with iPhone revenue.

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    Posted: 14 December 2010 05:31 PM #14

    Gregg Thurman - 14 December 2010 08:31 PM
    mbeauch - 14 December 2010 07:58 PM

    Greg scares me. 27 bil, come on.

    Would you please separate the ATV from iphone numbers, those two have no business together.

    Except that Apple includes AppleTV sales with iPhone revenue.

    Apple TV is in other hardware.  The deferred software upgrade revenue is grouped with iPhone according to a response to an email I sent to Apple Investor relations

         
  • Posted: 14 December 2010 10:31 PM #15

    Gregg Thurman - 14 December 2010 07:46 PM
    DawnTreader - 14 December 2010 03:34 PM
    Gregg Thurman - 14 December 2010 11:55 AM

    We need a TMO consensus thread.  My feeling is that, as a group, TMO posters are better at forecasting Apple’s performane than the professionals on Wall Sreet.

    Gregg, by the way, where’s your blog? If you don’t have one already, I suggest starting one. I’ve recommended this step to FalKirk and other AFB members who offer up analysis. It would be good to have an online repository of your views.

    I’ve thought about doing something like that several times over the course of the last few years, but it sounds too much like work, and I don’t work anymore.  :  )

    We’ll get to the consensus topic soon so please remember to repost your estimates when the topic arrives. Blogs, using pre-formatted templates, are not a lot of work and it would be good to be able to easily reference your work and reference your work to others.