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Who’s running out of Iphones and Ipads?
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:smilesanta: In the past few days there have been reports of shortages and out right “out of stocks” of Ipads (Best Buy, Target, Walmarts….)in some areas…and Iphones now in China.
Per PED…
China runs out of iPhone 4s
Posted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt
December 20, 2010 2:48 PMSold out at Apple Stores, authorized resellers and China Unicom
Source: Guangzhou Daily
Now those stories about Chinese housewives smuggling Apple (AAPL) iPhones onto the mainland make a little more sense.It’s not just that the phones can be had in Hong Kong tax-free, it’s that they can be had at all.
Ticonderoga Securities’ Brian White, back from his recent China tour, reports in a note to clients Monday that the iPhone 4 is sold out for two months at Apple Stores, authorized resellers and China Unicom.
“In fact,” he writes, “we estimate China Unicom (CHU) has been unable to fulfill approximately one-third of the iPhone 4 orders due to shortages.”
Other findings:
The high-end smartphone market in China is roughly 100 million to 125 million subscribers, which provides Apple, he says, “with a significant opportunity for growth in years ahead”
China Mobile (CHL) confirmed to White that although it doesn’t sell iPhones, a special SIM card allows its subscribers to use them
Total mobile subscribership in China grew 1.1% last month to 833 million, while 3G wireless ramped up nearly 10 times faster—up 10.4% in November to 31.6 million subscribers
“We continue to believe,” White concludes, “that China remains in the early stages of catching ‘Apple fever.’”http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/20/china-runs-out-of-iphone-4s/#more-47187
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So perhaps we can do some snooping of channels and report not on where you can get an Ipad or Iphone…but where you can’t! (kind of backwards, no?).
[ Edited: 20 December 2010 08:45 PM by Red Shirted Ensign ]Signature
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This portends to strong guidance for Jan-Mar quarter. Except that in this unprecedented market, financial upheavals blah blah, I don’t know what strong guidance is.
Anyway, I am upping my barebones minimum for iPhone sales to 15 million for December quarter.
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This portends to strong guidance for Jan-Mar quarter. Except that in this unprecedented market, financial upheavals blah blah, I don’t know what strong guidance is.
Anyway, I am upping my barebones minimum for iPhone sales to 15 million for December quarter.
My minimum is now 16M. I think they could even scale 17 - 18M, given the new markets Apple entered the iPhone 4 in at the end of Q4 2010. I have a hard time believing their production capacity stayed flat from Q4 2010 to Q1 2011. Once again, shortages mean Apple will sell what it produced.
We could see upside surprises with sales of both iPhones and iPads this quarter.
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Thanks for the hierarchy. I agree with the order by and large.
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The order of places I would expect to see shortages, from first to last:
3rd party international retailers (e.g. partners in China that are reporting shortages)
3rd party domestic retailers (BBY, ATT, VZ, etc…)
International Apple stores
Apple.com
Domestic Apple stores
If we begin to see any shortages at domestic Apple stores it will be a very big tell that Apple is going to blow the roof off of this quarter. I don’t think we are going to see that problem since we haven’t yet, as far as I know. Regardless, this Q is going to be humungous. Apple had enough time/experience with the iPad to know that demand would be off the charts this quarter. They also had enough time/experience with the iPhone 4 to ramp production enough to service the countries it is currently available in. The amazing thing is that not all countries have the iPad and sales are still insane. And not all carriers yet have the iPhone but sales are still insane. Fiscal 2011 estimates are so comically low right now I think that after this quarter’s report we are going to get the biggest estimate revisions and stock price pop we’ve ever seen.
For some reason the ipad has not been counted by the analyst going forward. Last QTR was the first full QTR of sales. Most of their 2011 estimates will be beat with the ipad completely removed from the equation. I to expect this QTR to be big,(They always are) but don’t get excited about how it will be received. A handful of people make a lot of money shorting this stock. :-(Signature
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Gregg Thurman
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This portends to strong guidance for Jan-Mar quarter. Except that in this unprecedented market, financial upheavals blah blah, I don’t know what strong guidance is.
Anyway, I am upping my barebones minimum for iPhone sales to 15 million for December quarter.
Except that iPhone sales during the March quarter won’t make up for the decline in Mac, iPod and miscellaneous revenue (peripherals, software, etc). I don’t know what the seasonality of the iPad is, and won’t for another 2 years.
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John Molloy
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Except that iPhone sales during the March quarter won’t make up for the decline in Mac, iPod and miscellaneous revenue (peripherals, software, etc). I don’t know what the seasonality of the iPad is, and won’t for another 2 years.
As long as they exceed the takings from last year it doesn’t matter.
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Went to Target today and do not have good news to report back. I was shocked to see how many ipods were still in the case. I think many of you are jaded by the fact that you live in upper class areas. It is not an issue for someone to walk in and plop down $800, for those of us in reality world that is a lot of money. I am sticking with my thought that ipods will decrease by 12-15% this qtr from last year and stand pat on less than 6 mil ipads. FTR, I know the ones I see at Target are already sold as far as Apple is concerned. Anxiously awaiting Jan earnings.
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Adversity does not just build character, it reveals it.
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I went to Target yesterday and made a similar observation. Overall, I felt Target was kind of dead, although traffic was pretty good in toys and housewares. Virtually nobody was in the electronics section, where they did have a good selection of Apple gear in stock, including iPads. My feeling is this may tell us more about Target than anything else - most other stores in my area seem to be doing very well, and shop owners are much happier this year than last.
Today I went to the mall where there is a Best Buy mobility shop. The place was mobbed (much more so than the main Best Buy across the street). The walls are plastered with large posters proclaiming that they have iPhones and iPads - very nice display. I peeked inside, and there were lots of people pawing iDevices.
Methinks this Christmas is very much about the iPad and smartphones. iPods - not so much. A friend’s 14 year-old daughter recently came home and exclaimed “I can’t believe you guys won’t get me an iPhone - you’re ruining my life! Have iPods been relegated to stocking stuffers?
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The order of places I would expect to see shortages, from first to last:
3rd party international retailers (e.g. partners in China that are reporting shortages)
3rd party domestic retailers (BBY, ATT, VZ, etc…)
International Apple stores
Apple.com
Domestic Apple stores
If we begin to see any shortages at domestic Apple stores it will be a very big tell that Apple is going to blow the roof off of this quarter. I don’t think we are going to see that problem since we haven’t yet, as far as I know. Regardless, this Q is going to be humungous. Apple had enough time/experience with the iPad to know that demand would be off the charts this quarter. They also had enough time/experience with the iPhone 4 to ramp production enough to service the countries it is currently available in. The amazing thing is that not all countries have the iPad and sales are still insane. And not all carriers yet have the iPhone but sales are still insane. Fiscal 2011 estimates are so comically low right now I think that after this quarter’s report we are going to get the biggest estimate revisions and stock price pop we’ve ever seen.
Concur with this hierarchy and the analysis that goes with it.
Also agree with Mercel’s projected iPad sales of up to 18M. I will not be surprised if there is a precipitous drop in iPad sales post holiday beyond expected, which may be attributable to rumours of the next gen iPad coming this Spring (April?), although pundits may attempt to attribute it to competitors’ tablets.
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wab95
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iPad now out of stock at Best Buy online for all models except the 64GB versions. Why don’t they just go across the street to TGT and snag a few of those?
Whoever’s running TGT’s electronics should be fired, easy money to be made and they’re missing the boat. I’d hate to be in that meeting. -
I went to Target yesterday and made a similar observation. Overall, I felt Target was kind of dead, although traffic was pretty good in toys and housewares. Virtually nobody was in the electronics section, where they did have a good selection of Apple gear in stock, including iPads. My feeling is this may tell us more about Target than anything else - most other stores in my area seem to be doing very well, and shop owners are much happier this year than last.
Today I went to the mall where there is a Best Buy mobility shop. The place was mobbed (much more so than the main Best Buy across the street). The walls are plastered with large posters proclaiming that they have iPhones and iPads - very nice display. I peeked inside, and there were lots of people pawing iDevices.
Methinks this Christmas is very much about the iPad and smartphones. iPods - not so much. A friend’s 14 year-old daughter recently came home and exclaimed “I can’t believe you guys won’t get me an iPhone - you’re ruining my life! Have iPods been relegated to stocking stuffers?
Regarding the allure of iPods, you may be correct. My teenaged daughter wanted a pink iPod Nano until I switched her carrier service, post contract expiration, to AT&T (here in USA) and got both kids iPhones. That extinguished the flame for the pink Nano, especially once her iPhone was ensconced in a pink case. Her only complaint was why did she have to get the older 3Gs (‘like yours’ was implied) instead of the iPhone 4. Fortunately, I don’t carry a weapon.There is still a market for the classic iPod. My first gen classic 60 GB recently died, which I used to use in target disc mode for those times I needed a backup but did not have another portable handy. While portable hard drives have come down in both size and price, generally obviating the need for such a spare, the iPhones still do not have the storage capacity of the iPod classics, where I can still house more of my music and podcasts. As for the Nanos and Shuffles, they are great for workouts and yes, they are also great stocking stuffers.
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wab95
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Her only complaint was why did she have to get the older 3Gs (‘like yours’ was implied) instead of the iPhone 4. Fortunately, I don’t carry a weapon.
Kids! Can’t live with em. Can’t shoot em. :-D
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I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!
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No shortage of iPads here in Canada.
Future Shop is our “Best Buy” equivalent store and shows all models available in store and online. -
There is still a market for the classic iPod.
Agreed. There will always be a market for classic iPods because of storage and utility. For example, my classic pretty much lives in the glove compartment, where it is attached to the stereo. It would be very unwise to leave an iPod touch in that environment.
I really wish Apple would come out with a classic in the 500 Gb range. I’m tired of maintaining two iTunes libraries and would happily dump my lossy files if something were offered with adequate storage.
In addition to audiophiles, there have to be people out there that are video hogs and have use for major iPod and iPad storage.
Perhaps the emergence of cheap flash will make ultra-giant storage in iPod touches and iPads a reality sooner than later.
