AFB Member 1st Quarter Estimates

  • Posted: 23 December 2010 02:13 PM

    Everyone:

    As a service to AFB members, I’m offering to post an index of 1st quarter estimates at Posts At Eventide.

    The ground rules are simple:

    All contestants must post their preliminary estimates by 11:59 PM on 12/31/10. Estimates can be posted in two ways:

    1. Estimates are posted in this topic with a mention the member desires to have their estimates published in the index.

    2. If a member is bashful about posting their numbers in this topic, please PM me for email instructions.

    3. The index is open to all AFB members in good standing as of Christmas Day. In other words, to be considered eligible for entry participants must have a TMO member account by that day.

    The estimates are to be complete as possible:

    Total revenue
    Unit sales by product line
    Operating expenses
    Other income
    Income before taxes
    Tax expense
    Net income
    Earnings per share.

    Gentleman (and ladies) start your estimate engines.  grin

    [Edited to change topic type to normal]

    [ Edited: 01 January 2011 07:48 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 23 December 2010 05:21 PM #1

    In the meantime, deagol has posted his numbersgrin

         
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    Posted: 23 December 2010 09:28 PM #2

    DawnTreader - 23 December 2010 06:13 PM

    All contestants must post their preliminary estimates by 11:59 PM on 12/31/10. Estimates can be posted in two ways:

    Son of a gun…I will be away from Dec 25th until Jan 2nd, with little access to any form of communications and won’t make the deadline!

    I guess it goes the way it has to go.
    smile

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    Tightwad.

         
  • Posted: 23 December 2010 10:30 PM #3

    awcabot - 24 December 2010 01:28 AM
    DawnTreader - 23 December 2010 06:13 PM

    All contestants must post their preliminary estimates by 11:59 PM on 12/31/10. Estimates can be posted in two ways:

    Son of a gun…I will be away from Dec 25th until Jan 2nd, with little access to any form of communications and won’t make the deadline!

    I guess it goes the way it has to go.
    smile

    Actually AW, we got there slightly differently, but your EPS is very near mine.

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  • Posted: 23 December 2010 11:32 PM #4

    Gregg Thurman - 24 December 2010 02:30 AM

    Actually AW, we got there slightly differently, but your EPS is very near mine.

    Gregg:

    Please post any updates to your estimates in this topic. The AFB crowd is becoming quite proficient at quarterly estimates.

         
  • Posted: 23 December 2010 11:55 PM #5

    DawnTreader - 24 December 2010 03:32 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 24 December 2010 02:30 AM

    Actually AW, we got there slightly differently, but your EPS is very near mine.

    Gregg:

    Please post any updates to your estimates in this topic. The AFB crowd is becoming quite proficient at quarterly estimates.

    Dawn, if you have easy access to my most recent estimates, could you move them to this thread?  If not, I’ll look them up and post here.  The reason I ask is that its been so long since I’ve posted html, that I’ve forgotten the commands to get everything to line up correctly.

    And yes, the AFB crowd ARE becoming quite proficient (I trust their estimates more than I do Wall Street’s).

    [ Edited: 23 December 2010 11:59 PM by Gregg Thurman ]

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  • Posted: 24 December 2010 12:07 AM #6

    Gregg Thurman - 24 December 2010 03:55 AM

    [

    Dawn, if you have easy access to my most recent estimates, could you move them to this thread?  If not, I’ll look them up and post here.  The reason I ask is that its been so long since I’ve posted html, that I’ve forgotten the commands to get everything to line up correctly.

    And yes, the AFB crowd ARE becoming quite proficient (I trust their estimates more than I do Wall Street’s).

    Gregg:

    I’m not seeing the estimates in a quick look through a couple of the topics. Please repost when you find them. It’s among the reasons for this topic and for posting the estimates in one easily found location. There’s far too much good work being done in the AFB for important content to be lost in the tide of new and fast-moving topics.

    [ Edited: 24 December 2010 01:02 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 24 December 2010 02:55 AM #7

    adamthompson3232 - 24 December 2010 05:00 AM

    The only thing that could hurt Apple after this Q’s earnings release is guidance. And it will only be because the WS “pros” are so stupid. Deagol estimates that Apple will guide roughly in line with current March Q consensus on revenues but below WS consensus on EPS. If the analysts had any brains they would know that this is a VERY bullish catalyst for Apple since the guidance is so damn close to current consensus which is based on ridiculously low numbers that assume this Q will be 10%+ worse than it will actually be. I think the stock doesn’t waver, though, after earnings and has a very brief dip before rocketing higher to $375+ the week of earnings.

    at, I expect your comprehensive estimates to be posted in this topic by New Year’s Day. It’s time for you to step up and show the world what numbers you are holding.  grin

         
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    Posted: 24 December 2010 10:05 AM #8

    adamthompson3232 - 24 December 2010 05:00 AM

    The only thing that could hurt Apple after this Q’s earnings release is guidance. And it will only be because the WS “pros” are so stupid. Deagol estimates that Apple will guide roughly in line with current March Q consensus on revenues but below WS consensus on EPS. If the analysts had any brains they would know that this is a VERY bullish catalyst for Apple since the guidance is so damn close to current consensus which is based on ridiculously low numbers that assume this Q will be 10%+ worse than it will actually be. I think the stock doesn’t waver, though, after earnings and has a very brief dip before rocketing higher to $375+ the week of earnings.


    I like it when you talk dirty like that. :drool: Mmmmmmmm 375. I’ll take two please. tongue laugh

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    Posted: 24 December 2010 01:22 PM #9

    adamthompson3232 - 24 December 2010 05:19 PM

    DT, are you publicly calling me out?!?!:) I would post comprehensive estimates if I had any but I leave that to you and our other horsemen. I just go with a simple formula to get to revenue and eps of $26B in revs and $6.00 eps. The good news is that I think the Q was better than apple imagined so I think my estimates will be low. I am surprised that we didn’t see more stock outs on iPhone, iPad and MBA which bodes very well for us all.

    Yes he has and don’t copy Deagol’s. tongue laugh

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  • Posted: 24 December 2010 01:26 PM #10

    adamthompson3232 - 24 December 2010 05:19 PM

    DT, are you publicly calling me out?!?!:) I would post comprehensive estimates if I had any but I leave that to you and our other horsemen. I just go with a simple formula to get to revenue and eps of $26B in revs and $6.00 eps. The good news is that I think the Q was better than apple imagined so I think my estimates will be low. I am surprised that we didn’t see more stock outs on iPhone, iPad and MBA which bodes very well for us all.

    at, it’s time for you to put your skill set to work and crunch out the numbers. The “building blocks” are here. “building blocks” are here.

    I can assure you going through the process the first time is exhilarating and it will hone the way you look at AAPL numbers.  grin

         
  • Posted: 26 December 2010 06:43 PM #11

    The field of potential participants is now determined.

    This is a reminder for all members of the AFB who desire to participate in the FQ1 index of estimates: Estimates are due by 11:59pm on the 31st. Please post your estimates in this topic.

         
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    Posted: 26 December 2010 07:37 PM #12

    Gregg Thurman - 24 December 2010 03:55 AM

    And yes, the AFB crowd ARE becoming quite proficient (I trust their estimates more than I do Wall Street’s).

    Yeah, but you need the Street’s estimates as a benchmark, so Apple can beat them (this is where AFB or blogger numbers matter, so we can anticipate the “beat”), and the market can react accordingly.

    Seems like some of the Street numbers on iPads are pretty high, BTW, north of 6 mil. That’s pretty high to beat, no?

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    Posted: 26 December 2010 07:55 PM #13

    adamthompson3232 - 24 December 2010 05:00 AM

    The only thing that could hurt Apple after this Q’s earnings release is guidance. And it will only be because the WS “pros” are so stupid. Deagol estimates that Apple will guide roughly in line with current March Q consensus on revenues but below WS consensus on EPS. If the analysts had any brains they would know that this is a VERY bullish catalyst for Apple since the guidance is so damn close to current consensus which is based on ridiculously low numbers that assume this Q will be 10%+ worse than it will actually be. I think the stock doesn’t waver, though, after earnings and has a very brief dip before rocketing higher to $375+ the week of earnings.

    Maybe I’m stating the obvious here, but it seems that it’s Apple’s typical guidance sandbagging that tends to temper or even drop the stock price the day after earnings. Hence the run-up up to earnings, then the drop the day after. At least that’s the epitaph on my December calls. :-(

    Speaking of which, Januarys end 1/22. When is the earning announcement again?

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  • Posted: 26 December 2010 08:06 PM #14

    JDSoCal - 26 December 2010 11:55 PM

    Maybe I’m stating the obvious here, but it seems that it’s Apple’s typical guidance sandbagging that tends to temper or even drop the stock price the day after earnings.

    Guidance has nothing to do with it and it’s expected Apple’s guidance will underwhelm relative to eventual results. Profit-taking occurs following earnings and repositioning of assets allocations following a sharp rise in the share price.

    But back on topic:

    AFB members, please remember to post your estimates over the next week. It’s time for the independent analysts active in this community to have their numbers posted in a highly public place. It adds to the forum experience.

         
  • Posted: 26 December 2010 09:18 PM #15

    I would very much like to post something nice and neat, and easy to read ala AWCabot’s posting..  I’d appreciate assistance from anyone that can show me how to post from a spread sheet in that manner.  Thanks in advance for your help.

    (I tried

     

    but that didn’t work.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.