What’s new in 2011?

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    Posted: 03 January 2011 09:39 PM #46

    While we’re wishing, I wish the AppleTV could do what THIS does. Will iTunes be able to compete with VUDU? If Apple is going to play in this sandbox, and succeed, they need to quit treating it like a hobby.  :evil:


    :apple:

         
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    Posted: 03 January 2011 09:43 PM #47

    FalKirk - 03 January 2011 06:24 PM

    Gene Munster made many Apple predictions, most of them quite reasonable, whcih can be found here. However, he continues to maintain his belief in his oft-predicted Apple TV.

    Looking ahead, Munster maintains his long-held view that Apple will eventually enter the TV market, ?as an all-in-one Apple television could move the needle when connected TVs proliferate.? He also expects the company to offer a variety of new cloud-based computing services.

    I just don’t get this. Apple gets everything it wants on a TV screen with Apple TV, a $99 unit that is device agnostic. Why would Apple want to enter a field with no margins in order to create a device that is, essentially, already available to all TV’s?

    The problem with TVs today is their inability to obtain inexpensive and ubiquitous content. What problem would an all-in-one Apple TV solve?

    Thoughts?

    The problem that Apple will have in about 12 months, which is, how do you keep up the 50% growth rates without some new product that can generate several billions in revenue each year. Apple certainly wants to own the living room - that won’t happen with their current Apple TV product - as for TVs being low margin commodities - there’s no one better than Apple to figure that out - just look at what they did with iPhones and iPods.

         
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    Posted: 03 January 2011 09:52 PM #48

    AHHA - 04 January 2011 01:43 AM
    FalKirk - 03 January 2011 06:24 PM

    Gene Munster made many Apple predictions, most of them quite reasonable, whcih can be found here. However, he continues to maintain his belief in his oft-predicted Apple TV.

    Looking ahead, Munster maintains his long-held view that Apple will eventually enter the TV market, ?as an all-in-one Apple television could move the needle when connected TVs proliferate.? He also expects the company to offer a variety of new cloud-based computing services.

    I just don’t get this. Apple gets everything it wants on a TV screen with Apple TV, a $99 unit that is device agnostic. Why would Apple want to enter a field with no margins in order to create a device that is, essentially, already available to all TV’s?

    The problem with TVs today is their inability to obtain inexpensive and ubiquitous content. What problem would an all-in-one Apple TV solve?

    Thoughts?

    The problem that Apple will have in about 12 months, which is, how do you keep up the 50% growth rates without some new product that can generate several billions in revenue each year. Apple certainly wants to own the living room - that won’t happen with their current Apple TV product - as for TVs being low margin commodities - there’s no one better than Apple to figure that out - just look at what they did with iPhones and iPods.

    Concur. Mark, you’re thinking of the TV as a commodity. Fair enough, it is…today. Well, mp3 players were commodities before the iPod. Phones were commodities before the iPhone. Tables were commo… Oh wait, tablets didn’t exist before the iPad wink But you get my point.

    Honestly, I have no idea how Apple will do it, but I want them to come into my living in room and transform it in the next several years. [Right now it doesn’t even have a TV set; I’m that averse to the current structure of the industry]. I suspect that it will have as much to do with content distribution as with the device(s) themselves, but as we know integration is Apple’s distinguishing advantage.

         
  • Posted: 03 January 2011 10:33 PM #49

    MacCube - 04 January 2011 01:39 AM

    While we’re wishing, I wish the AppleTV could do what THIS does. Will iTunes be able to compete with VUDU? If Apple is going to play in this sandbox, and succeed, they need to quit treating it like a hobby.  :evil:

    Physical media is already archaic. It’s like getting water from a well when you could be getting water from a tap. Apple is never going to do Blu-Ray, Apple is never going to do physical media (see the current MacBook Air as proof of that), Apple is never going to go backwards, Apple is only going to go forwards.

         
  • Posted: 03 January 2011 10:44 PM #50

    AHHA - 04 January 2011 01:43 AM

    The problem that Apple will have in about 12 months, which is, how do you keep up the 50% growth rates without some new product that can generate several billions in revenue each year. Apple certainly wants to own the living room - that won’t happen with their current Apple TV product - as for TVs being low margin commodities - there’s no one better than Apple to figure that out - just look at what they did with iPhones and iPods.

    I no longer think of Apple TV as a money maker like the iPod, IPod Touch, iPhone, iPad or Mac. I think the Apple TV is simply a peripheral device designed to complement all of those other Apple products. I think Apple’s strategy for “owning” the living room is not to sell desktop units or television sets. I think their strategy is allow their customers to transfer everything on their Apple devices (including content from the internet) to their TVs at will. The TV, in essence, will just be a an Apple peripheral - a way to share what you have on your personal Apple device with others.

         
  • Posted: 04 January 2011 12:11 PM #51

    I’ve been thinking (and you know how dangerous that is) about Apps on Apple TV. When it was first suggested, I was more cautious than most. I felt that Steve Jobs had it right when he said that people don’t want their TVs to be computers. The truth is that most of the 300,000 Apps available for our iOS devices today would translate very poorly to the TV screen

    However, upon further reflection, I’m warming to the idea. I think the key is to not picture the TV as a device on its own but merely a projection screen for the content on one’s iOS device. For example, it makes no sense to play Angry Birds on an iOS enabled TV. However, if I were at a family function and I wanted to share with my in-laws how spectacularly unsuccessful I am at killing pigs, I could just hit AirPlay and shoot the results of my misguided missiles up on the screen. Similarly, over the Christmas holidays I was playing a hotly contested game of scrabble with my nephew and we could have tossed the scrabble board up on the TV so that everyone could have criticized my word selections and enjoyed my humiliating defeat.

    Since this is a prediction thread, I’m predicting that we’ll see AirPlay extended in this manner by as early as the introduction of the iPad 2 but no later than the introduction of the iPhone 5. I don’t think it’s going to be a game changer like the Mac App Store, but I think it’s going to be one more part of the Apple ecosystem that no one else has and no one else will be able to duplicate.

         
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    Posted: 04 January 2011 12:44 PM #52

    FalKirk - 04 January 2011 04:11 PM

    I’ve been thinking (and you know how dangerous that is) about Apps on Apple TV. When it was first suggested, I was more cautious than most. I felt that Steve Jobs had it right when he said that people don’t want their TVs to be computers. The truth is that most of the 300,000 Apps available for our iOS devices today would translate very poorly to the TV screen

    However, upon further reflection, I’m warming to the idea. I think the key is to not picture the TV as a device on its own but merely a projection screen for the content on one’s iOS device. For example, it makes no sense to play Angry Birds on an iOS enabled TV. However, if I were at a family function and I wanted to share with my in-laws how spectacularly unsuccessful I am at killing pigs, I could just hit AirPlay and shoot the results of my misguided missiles up on the screen. Similarly, over the Christmas holidays I was playing a hotly contested game of scrabble with my nephew and we could have tossed the scrabble board up on the TV so that everyone could have criticized my word selections and enjoyed my humiliating defeat.

    Since this is a prediction thread, I’m predicting that we’ll see AirPlay extended in this manner by as early as the introduction of the iPad 2 but no later than the introduction of the iPhone 5. I don’t think it’s going to be a game changer like the Mac App Store, but I think it’s going to be one more part of the Apple ecosystem that no one else has and no one else will be able to duplicate.

    I agree that having apps on Apple TV is something that we will see in H1 2011 - in addition to the Airplay capability, I think the one other multi-billion dollar industry that Apple does not (or at least did not until a couple years ago) have a strong foothold is the gaming and game console industry. Given the popularity of games in the App Store, I think the current incarnation of Apple TV with Apps can give the gaming boys a run for their money - no need for game controllers - just use your iPhone/iTouch/iPad - Microsoft has raised the bar with Kinect - but I think Apple certainly has plans to go after that market.

         
  • Posted: 04 January 2011 01:31 PM #53

    AHHA - 04 January 2011 04:44 PM

    I agree that having apps on Apple TV is something that we will see in H1 2011 - in addition to the Airplay capability, I think the one other multi-billion dollar industry that Apple does not (or at least did not until a couple years ago) have a strong foothold is the gaming and game console industry. Given the popularity of games in the App Store, I think the current incarnation of Apple TV with Apps can give the gaming boys a run for their money - no need for game controllers - just use your iPhone/iTouch/iPad - Microsoft has raised the bar with Kinect - but I think Apple certainly has plans to go after that market.

    I’m not sure that Apple can go directly after the game console industry. With game consoles, you look at the TV while manipulating the game with a physical device like a game controller or Wii remote. An iOS touch screen requires you to look at the iOS screen and take your eyes off of the TV. I don’t think that will work.

    I think its possible that apps may emerge that will take advantage of the TVs larger screen size. But frankly, I can’t think of a single App that would benefit from being played, as opposed to viewed, on a television screen. That may just be because I’m lacking in vision. We’ll see.

         
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    Posted: 04 January 2011 03:15 PM #54

    FalKirk - 04 January 2011 05:31 PM

    I’m not sure that Apple can go directly after the game console industry. With game consoles, you look at the TV while manipulating the game with a physical device like a game controller or Wii remote. An iOS touch screen requires you to look at the iOS screen and take your eyes off of the TV. I don’t think that will work.

    How about this:

    Microsoft takes share from older consoles in games that are more suitable to stare directly at the big screen with Kinect.
    Apple takes share from older consoles in games that are more suitable on closer, touchable device with the iPad/AirPlay combo.

    Boom, game industry hit on its head.

    (I’m not a gamer so I don’t know).

         
  • Posted: 04 January 2011 05:15 PM #55

    cdodge - 03 January 2011 08:30 PM

    I don’t think Apple gets everything it wants with Apple TV. Apple seems to want to be involved in all aspects of your media consumption experience, and television is the next logical place to go. I would guess currently that 90%+ of this experience is watching live or recorded television from your cable provider, with the rest being Netflix and BDs/DVDs. Apple doesn’t need to create connected TVs to become a larger part of the TV experience. Combining Apple TV and the set top box into one device would allow for one easy to use box to watch TV, use TV apps, and connect to iOS devices. IMO, this is the only way that Apple TV will sell in unit numbers that compare to their other product lines. What I like the best about this idea is that consumers would not need to buy the boxes directly, just lease them from cable operators.


    On a different note: 1080p Apple TV is one upgrade that needs to happen in the next refresh.

    Well apparently Apple already tried and failed with a similar product in 94-95, but that didn’t stop them from re-inventing the Newton.

    Apple Interactive Television Box
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Interactive_Television_Box

    Signature

    @chasedodge

         
  • Posted: 06 January 2011 04:35 AM #56

    FalKirk - 03 January 2011 05:21 PM

    I have a habit of thinking out loud, which can be quite dangerous. I like these kinds of discussions. Many of your comments were spot on. I don’t see them as adversarial, I see them as an opportunity to hone my thoughts. Keep on nagging me. It keeps me honest and it helps me think.

    FalKirk and Sleepygeek, I’ve been wanting to respond to both your excellent posts ? your ideas about the Store’s impact intrigue me ? but I’ve been slammed the past couple days. I hope to get to it this weekend, sorry for the delay.

    MacGuffin

         
  • Posted: 06 January 2011 05:54 AM #57

    MacGuffin - 06 January 2011 08:35 AM

    FalKirk and Sleepygeek, I’ve been wanting to respond to both your excellent posts ? your ideas about the Store’s impact intrigue me ? but I’ve been slammed the past couple days. I hope to get to it this weekend, sorry for the delay.

    MacGuffin

    @MacGuffin: Because the Mac App Store is opening today (Thursday) at noon EST, I created a separate topic focused specifically on that that subject. Take a look. You might want to post your thoughts there.

    In either case, I’ll look forward to getting your feedback and continuing the discussion at your convenience.