65 Million iPads for 2011?

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    Posted: 29 December 2010 07:33 AM

    What would this do to all of your 2011 estimates:

    http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101228PD212.html

         
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    Posted: 29 December 2010 11:01 AM #1

    Doable.

    Factoring in the unexpected:

    ONE - Enterprise adoption. They will NOT even consider the “me-too tablets” they are untested, and for mission critical, or business use, reliablity and solid stable TESTED software is a MUST. That means to me, that for the next two years, Apple iPad will garner upwards of 90% of ALL enterprise adoption in the tablet markets. And right now, EVERY SINGLE worthwhile enterprise is either running pads, evaluating pads, or moaning about missing out on the iPad/Tablet phenomena. Enterprise ALONE can and just might take up 15 million units next year.

    TWO - China falling in love with Apple. IF they can get those 25 stores all up and running, AND IF they can get their online delivery/store fully functioning, China ALONE will buy as many iPads as all of Europe combined.

    THREE - with this kind of volume, they can lower the price $50-75 and still obtain the same margins that they were projecting at the introductory price. Using this much capacity that the world can produce of 9.7” screens will close down that market to others, they will either have to pay through the nose for ANY volume at all, OR chose alternative smaller sizes, or lesser density less capable displays.

    [ Edited: 29 December 2010 11:03 AM by TanToday ]

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    Posted: 29 December 2010 11:01 AM #2

    Daily Gala - 29 December 2010 11:33 AM

    What would this do to all of your 2011 estimates:

    http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101228PD212.html

    EPS per quarter to $ 8 starting by Jan 2012.

         
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    Posted: 29 December 2010 11:05 AM #3

    Daily Gala - 29 December 2010 11:33 AM

    What would this do to all of your 2011 estimates:

    http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101228PD212.html


    I don’t have any faith in these kind of stories. The way it is written is very deceiving. The main thing is production and Apple will not produce 65 mil ipads in 2011. I will go out on a limb right now and say that Apple will never sell 65 mil ipads in any given year. We are not talking ipods here. Boooooooo, hissssssssss, snarl.  LOL

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    Posted: 29 December 2010 02:31 PM #4

    I’m skeptical. These production forecasts are very suspicious and seldom accurate.

    We have only two data points on iPad: sales for the first two quarters it was available. On January 18th we’re going to be granted a 50% increase the amount of data we have about the product.

    I’m currently guessing about 32 million next year but a 50% increase in information might change that.

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    Posted: 30 December 2010 12:04 AM #5

    Unique - 29 December 2010 07:21 PM

    Okay quoted, for future uses when you take back your words. :D


    Unique, that is why I put it out there. :-D

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    Posted: 30 December 2010 01:22 AM #6

    Unique - 29 December 2010 07:41 PM
    TanToday - 29 December 2010 03:01 PM

    Doable.

    Factoring in the unexpected:

    ONE - Enterprise adoption. They will NOT even consider the “me-too tablets” they are untested, and for mission critical, or business use, reliablity and solid stable TESTED software is a MUST. That means to me, that for the next two years, Apple iPad will garner upwards of 90% of ALL enterprise adoption in the tablet markets. And right now, EVERY SINGLE worthwhile enterprise is either running pads, evaluating pads, or moaning about missing out on the iPad/Tablet phenomena. Enterprise ALONE can and just might take up 15 million units next year.

    TWO - China falling in love with Apple. IF they can get those 25 stores all up and running, AND IF they can get their online delivery/store fully functioning, China ALONE will buy as many iPads as all of Europe combined.

    THREE - with this kind of volume, they can lower the price $50-75 and still obtain the same margins that they were projecting at the introductory price. Using this much capacity that the world can produce of 9.7” screens will close down that market to others, they will either have to pay through the nose for ANY volume at all, OR chose alternative smaller sizes, or lesser density less capable displays.

    China’s online Apple store is functioning..do you mean not delivering iPhone 4 because of massive demand? We all know Apple’s future lies outside of the USA and Apple is aggressively placing itself in the next superpower which is China, in the future it will overtake the USA that’s inevitable. Apple’s sales will continue to grow rapidly in the international market forward, making the USA a smaller percentage of their total revenue each year advancing. That’s good news because Apple can save billions from unethical taxes to the USA.

    And we’ll continue to get crappy forecasting from the experts because so much of the data we get is U.S. centric.

         
  • Posted: 30 December 2010 02:27 AM #7

    TanToday - 29 December 2010 03:01 PM

    THREE - with this kind of volume, they can lower the price $50-75 and still obtain the same margins that they were projecting at the introductory price. Using this much capacity that the world can produce of 9.7” screens will close down that market to others, they will either have to pay through the nose for ANY volume at all, OR chose alternative smaller sizes, or lesser density less capable displays.

    Perhaps.  But another possibility is that Apple already reduced the price.  By that I mean that the coming volume efficiencies were predicted, and that Apple aggressively priced the iPad right from the get go.

    Just guessing; I rate it 50-50.

         
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    Posted: 30 December 2010 12:18 PM #8

    Interesting development in the Display suppliers
    Via DisplaySearch

    Hitachi Displays has acknowledged that it is in discussions with Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. about ?cooperation? in LCD manufacturing. This confirms a Nikkei report from earlier this week that Hon Hai will acquire a stake in Hitachi Displays by investing approximately $1.2 billion.

    Hon Hai is part of the Foxconn group, the largest contract electronics manufacturer in the world and the parent of Chimei Innolux (the product of a merger of CMO, TPO, and InnoLux), as well as a group of LCD and touch-panel related subsidiaries. Hitachi Displays, a 75/25 joint venture between Hitachi Ltd. and Canon, is a manufacturer of small and medium size LCD panels, focusing on IPS and LTPS (low-temperature poly-silicon) technologies.

    According to rumors Chimei Innoulux was brought on as a 3rd display supplier for the iPad and iPhone with production to begin 1st Qtr 2011.

    In July, 2010, Chimei Innolux licensed IPS from Hitachi Displays, and has started production of 3.5? panels for smart phones and 9.7? panels for tablet PCs. The contract stipulates that Chimei Innolux will provide preferential supply to Hitachi Displays, ensuring supply of medium-size IPS LCDs to meet increasing market demand. There are high hurdles to produce such panels, and panel makers such as Samsung, LG Display, and Toshiba are having difficulty boosting yield rates. Investing in Hitachi Displays will be a good way for Foxconn/Chimei Innolux to strengthen its patent coverage and technology capability.

         
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    Posted: 30 December 2010 09:29 PM #9

    personally, I don’t see a price change coming for the ipad. It is all about perceived value and the ipad delivers. :apple:

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    Posted: 30 December 2010 10:03 PM #10

    mbeauch - 31 December 2010 01:29 AM

    personally, I don’t see a price change coming for the ipad. It is all about perceived value and the ipad delivers. :apple:

    You’ll see a slight reduction in the original iPads to clear out inventory when iPad2 hits the streets IMO. No need to drop price if you’re selling all you can make and it’s probably difficult to do without hurting margins some more. No real competition so no need to. Mark’s absolutely right. Still stand by a late March debut.

         
  • Posted: 30 December 2010 11:11 PM #11

    Apple doesn’t need to reduce prices, but subsidized iPad plans would significantly boost volume. This product is virtually tailor made for telcos to leverage their assets and develop a rich data plan revenue stream for iPad owners.

         
  • Posted: 30 December 2010 11:33 PM #12

    Apple product refresh cycles:

    iPad = March
    iPhone = June
    iPod = Sept
    MacBooks = April/Oct
    iMacs = ?

         
  • Posted: 31 December 2010 12:07 AM #13

    bick - 31 December 2010 03:33 AM

    Apple product refresh cycles:

    iPad = March
    iPhone = June
    iPod = Sept
    MacBooks = April/Oct
    iMacs = ?

    The first release of a new product is not a good guide, I think iPad 2 in Feb is more likely.