Where Do We go From Here?

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    Posted: 11 January 2011 01:36 PM

    So we’re in a 341-342 track, down a buck or so, following the VZ IPhone announcement.  With no catalyst other than the earnings call next week, are we going to drift higher to high 340’s, or perhaps retreat a bit?

    I subscribe to Cramer’s Strret.com, and one of the knuckleheads on there is a Guy Adami clone, who thinks we go to 270ish.  I tend to think there is enough support to prevent that from happening, though the hedgies have some major bucks and may possibly be able to manipulate a stock as high-priced as AAPL.  We had a nice run-up last quarter, and maybe that’s the gameplan for this quarter; but I think back to April and July of last year, when the hedgies brought the price down pretty significantly a day or so before earnings call, and I’m hoping that’s not in the cards this quarter.

         
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    Posted: 11 January 2011 01:52 PM #1

    For the foreseeable future, demand essentially overstrips supply for iPads and iPhones.  Mac demand shows no signs of letup overall.  Mac demand is definitely uneven, with Xserves and Mac Pros having little PR (thanks for what, Apple PR).  Apps remain the most popular and wideranging topic.

    Swing traders and day-traders might be blind-sided by a powerful EPS.  Longer term traders can take heart.

         
  • Posted: 11 January 2011 02:48 PM #2

    Where do we go from here?

    Higher. Much higher. But don’t expect $600 per share (or even $500 per share) overnight.

         
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    Posted: 11 January 2011 03:21 PM #3

    adamthompson3232 - 11 January 2011 06:41 PM

    For the entire history of the company, one answer and one answer only has been accurate 100% of the time as long as no time horizon is considered….

    ...UP!

    The timeframe I’m talking about is the next 5 or 6 days.

         
  • Posted: 11 January 2011 06:16 PM #4

    We should all see this, takes a while.

    here

         
  • Posted: 11 January 2011 07:07 PM #5

    The reason it’s so dang hard to confidently predict sales.

    Tim Cook @ Verizon iPhone launch:
    “I?m not going to get into our forecast. I think it?s fair to say that both of us think there?s tremendous opportunity.”

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    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
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    Posted: 11 January 2011 10:36 PM #6

    IMHO, it’s not a bad time to place a longer-term bet now if you’re so inclined (Oct calls or farther), after you’ve done your IV due diligence.

    There’s no visibility on AAPL from here to next Tuesday.  I’m playing it safe and staying out until a little while after the release.  I have my AAPL common and my Jan 12 call position and that’ll be enough for me, aside from any really ill-considered speculative side bets I may decide to take anyway, due to me failing to listen to my own “advice.”

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Thanks, Steve.